Syria´s broken deals

The rumours about the Syria´s talks sponsored by Russia are in the air. Turkey and Iran would also be god fathering the process.

One of questions – and there are many difficult ones – concerns the price Russia will have to pay to get Turkey on its side, in particular when it comes to accepting Assad´s continuation as head of State for a few more years.

My impression is that such price is related to the future of the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG. To get Erdogan on its side, Putin might have agreed to start attacking the YPG forces one off these days. The pretext would be that the Kurds are not part of the peace deal and should therefore be considered as terrorists. That Russian move would respond to a major strategic goal for the Turks: to prevent the Kurds from establishing any stronghold in Syria.

But all this is heavy on wishful thinking. The complexity of the situation on the ground is such that a deal like the one being prepared by this trio is far from being done. Particularly because it is not an inclusive one as it excludes not only the Kurds but others. And also because Assad is now convinced he can achieve a military solution. 

Holidays and the change that is coming

Christmas 2016 is about to happen. It is therefore time to close this shop for a few days and enjoy the family.

But before closing for the holidays, I spent a bit of time thinking about the role of the elites as we get closer to the New Year and all the changes it will bring, in the US, in the UN, and also in some parts of the EU, in particular those more affected by the Brexit discussions, the nationalism extreme and the related immigration issues, security challenges, and by complex electoral processes. Elites will have to be very clear in their communication endeavours, very sensitive to the difficulties and anxiety many people face, and also very responsible when talking about the way forward. The interaction between the elites and the ordinary citizen will be a major issue as we get back from the holidays and start confronting the world of 2017.

The New Year this time will bring a real change.

In the meantime, let´s enjoy the break. Happy holidays, then.

On domestic security matters

The concept of “war against terrorism” is not appropriate for our European societies. We are not at war. We have a very serious challenge in terms of domestic security. But it is a security issue to be dealt with by the police and the internal intelligence services. War would mean a major disruption of normalcy. We want to keep the same routines and be convinced that the security services are indeed equipped to match the challenge. They might of course be supported by the armed forces. But that support has to be much smarter than just placing a few soldiers in shopping malls and other public spaces. The politicians need to understand that the military can do much better things than just standing out there.

Responding to terrorism with wisdom

Yesterday´s horrendous attack in Berlin cannot be used by the extreme right to further their hate campaign. We should not allow it to happen.

The people responsible for the violence are terrorists and they should be dealt as such. We cannot fall into stereotypes and start looking at every refugee as a potential threat. Refugees are just fellows like you and me. The main difference is that they had to run for their lives. They are not in the business of taking other people´s lives. The criminal that comes to us and tries to do us harm is just that, a criminal. He might represent a new type of danger. But that´s the world of today, the upshot of some very serious crises in different parts of the world.

This seems to be understood by the vast majority of the German people. They are deeply sad and disturbed but they remain calm and have demonstrated they do not fall in the trap the extremists are so good at laying. We should share their pain but also their wisdom. 

Russia and Turkey: a relationship beyond death

The assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey should be condemned with very strong words. It is clearly an act that can have no justification. And it will not contribute a single inch to the solution of the tragic situation the Syrian population is going through.

It would also be a mistake to think that this vile act will have a major impact on the relations between Russia and Turkey. This is no time for exaggerations. And both countries seem to have find a common interest: to sort out the destiny of Syria without involving other major international players into the game.

I am afraid however that this sad incident of today might give the Turkish authorities an additional excuse to intensify the ongoing climate of repression. The Police could be the main target. But it will also spill over into other sectors of the nation. And it will be a harsh response. One reason could be to show to the Russians that the Turkish government is not taking this murder lightly. The other one would certainly be related to the continuing plan to silence any opposition to Erdogan´s authoritarian rule.

Against populist ideas

It would be inexcusable to remain silent and not denouncing the populist proposals that might create serious political damage. Indeed, I see it as my duty to combat that kind of propaganda. And I also believe that such struggle has to be based on clear arguments and on very strong words. Ambiguity means nothing when fighting populism. It gives room for accusations of duplicity and weakness of character.  To be polite is no solution either. Populism must be ridiculed. It also needs to be destabilised. 

We should feel deeply challenged

Syria has become the most visible and most dramatic example of the UN Security Council´s failures. It patently shows that the Council´s arrangement is about the Permanent Members ‘interests, and not about international peace and security. And it is also a most shocking reminder that it is time to find a better arrangement to protect civilians and civilisation. To accept without profound indignation what is going on in Aleppo and elsewhere should be out of question.

However, it is not just about Syria or its vicinity. It is also the suffering in South Sudan, Myanmar and some other parts of the world. And the extreme poverty many face on a daily basis. All that is just a reminder of the incapacity of the Council to properly address the major crises and challenges that put so many lives at stake.

It is also a call to think differently about the future and a new international order.  

On cyber as a weapon

Cyber attacks, when organised by an adversary State, must be taken very seriously and considered as a new type of armed aggression. Particularly when matters on national sovereignty and critical institutions are the target. To be soft on that will open the door for more daring and more damaging hostility. Better be clear and firm. The challenging State must be undoubtedly made aware of the consequences such attacks might bring on its own national interests and on its leadership. 

Guterres as the new UN boss

António Guterres´s swearing-in ceremony took place today. He is now ready to take over from Ban Ki-moon on 1 January 2017. And he has clearly spelled out, in today´s speech, the key priorities he sees for his mandate: first, to augment the UN´s ability to better contribute to the different stages of crisis management; second, to reorganise the system´s development machinery to make it more coherent and have a stronger field presence; third, to reform the UN, with a clear stress on delivery and improved public communication.

He is aware of the many difficulties ahead. For that reason, he underlined the importance he gives to partnering with other institutions and the member states. It is clear the UN should never work on critical issues alone.

Furthermore, all the work should be inspired by the principles that are enshrined in the UN Charter. A values-based approach gives the UN a stronger sense of mission and enhances its credibility.

One of those key values concerns the basic rights of everyone. They should be respected. That´s the foundation of peace and international cooperation.

Some people would call it respecting the dignity of our fellow humans. I think that concept could be understood differently by different people. I prefer to say human rights. They require no interpretation and have no faith-based connotation. It´s just a question of implementing the existing, universally approved principles. They are clearly written in the UN Convention.

Jammeh must go

Following Yahya Jammeh´s tragic volte-face, who has now changed his views on last week´s presidential elections and declared he will not accept the results, the UN Security Council met today to discuss the explosive situation The Gambia is now confronted with. The meeting was called at the request of Senegal, a country that surrounds The Gambia and has a very similar ethnic mix.

The Council has decided that Jammeh has no other option but to acknowledge the legitimacy of the election and move aside, for the winner to be sworn in with no undue delay.

This is not going to be easy to implement. Jammeh does not seem prepared to be reasonable. He is afraid of retribution and legal accusations, if he moves out of the State House.

In the circumstances, he should be offered political asylum elsewhere outside The Gambia. That should be the line of negotiations. It would facilitate the transition to democracy.

Where could he find asylum? That´s for the leaders of the region to decide and negotiate with the receiving state and Jammeh. But there are some countries that could be approached. For instance, Morocco and Saudi Arabia.