Austria's general elections

Austria went to the polls this weekend for general elections. Outside the country not a lot of people have paid attention to the event. Therefore, they failed to notice a very serious increase in the popular support for the right-wing populists and the Euro-sceptics. Together they collected more than 30% of the votes.

This is bad news for those who would like to push for more European integration. However, the governing grand coalition of Social Democrats (SPÖ) and conservative People's Party (ÖVP) is expected to continue in power. They got 50.9% of the vote. This is small and one would not be surprised if some of their new policies are no more than an adaptation of what the Right-wingers and the Euro-sceptics have advocated during their electoral campaigns. One of those policy lines has to do with a tougher stance when it comes to bailing out other EU member states. 

The weather is not good

Today we had municipal elections in Portugal. It is, at this time, a bit early to get to conclusions. But it is obvious that many will read the results as a defeat for the government. And this will bring additional political stress to a situation is far from being stable. The country will continue to be a poor lame duck in a European scene that is less and less prepared those that keep limping behind. 

Riga

It’s a delight to spend time in Riga. I am now at the end of my usual long September stay in the capital of Latvia. And I leave with a good feeling. This is a place that is forward looking, committed and full of beautiful people. They are also an example of civility and discipline. And those are two ingredients that make everyday life much easier. Even in the cold and the rain of the long days of autumn or in the freezing temperatures of very heavy winters. Even when money is short and the living get tough. But this people will make it, I am sure.

EU defence

An objective estimate of the potential threats to Europe’s security – Europe in the sense of EU – is still missing. Such estimate – which is like an anticipation of the key risks to our collective security – needs to be made by a combination of civilian and military specialists under the direction of a civilian personality. It cannot be done by the soldiers alone. It is also impossible to do it without associating the best minds within the military. And people tend to forget these very elementary principles. 

Leadership and related matters

In today’s world, when you have a crisis, you invest in diplomacy and negotiated solutions. But it would be a mistake not to back diplomacy with knowledge and force preparation. You need to know. You have to access the best analysis of options you can get and, at the same time, enough force and determination to make use of it. This is the quickest way to convince the other side, the opposing side, that negotiations are the best alternative for them. More than ever, a comprehensive approach to crisis response requires good diplomats, top class intelligence and well trained soldiers.  On top of that, you have put good leadership. And that’s the difficult part of this complex equation. Leadership. Leadership is about vision, intuition, and courage. It requires experience, and combines it with commitment and risk taking.

UN General Assembly

The annual meeting of the UN General Assembly started today, with a number of important speeches. My gut instinct is that there is a bit of space for new diplomacy initiatives as far as Syria and Iran are concerned. But then I think of the many other places that attract little attention and are in the midst of serious national crisis. These are the forgotten conflicts. But death, violence, rape, and sheer fear are the ones that do not forget people in those lost corners of our collective memory. 

Nairobi's drama

Nairobi is a major international hub and a reference city in East Africa. The UN has a very large presence there, including the world headquarters of the UN Environment Programme. In addition, there are many embassies there, a significant number of transnational firms and a dynamic private sector. For many tourists that visit that part of Africa, Nairobi is the entry and exit point. The national carrier, Kenyan Airlines, has become one of the most efficient in Africa. They bring people to Nairobi from many corners of Africa and fly them out to Europe and Asia.

Furthermore, the political situation, which had been so traumatizing in the elections five years ago, has evolved in the right direction. This year’s presidential race was a peaceful exercise in democracy. Notwithstanding the ethnicity dimension that is very present in the society, stability has regained the place it used to occupy.

The Kenyan Armed Forces have been a key player in the fight for peace and normalcy in Somalia. They have inflicted heavy pressure on the radicals over there and managed, with other African troops, to get the worst of them, Al-Shabab, out of the Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu.

Apparently it is this extremist and highly violent group, which is also closely linked to Al-Qaeda, that is responsible for the drama that has befallen over Nairobi since yesterday.  They came to kill and to remind all of us that radicalism and violence are key enemies of democracy and very serious threats to economic and political stability. 

Remain focused and patient

No problem, I thought, if one keeps repeating the same key messages over and over because in any case most people are not in a listening mood. The point is to repeat them with consistency, clarity and grace. 

European illusions

I just came out of a lecture about the future of Europe. Full of great ideas it was. And it was also based on the false premise that the future will continue to turn around Europe. Like the British thought, at the end of the 19^th century, that Britain will always be the centre of the world. 

Challenging the welfare state

Willem-Alexander, who has recently been inaugurated as King of the Netherlands, addressed Parliament for the first time. In his speech he announced that the Dutch welfare system is no longer sustainable. And he linked his statement to the globalisation and the ageing population.  He could also have mentioned the serious public account deficit the country is confronted with.

I suspect this statement will be quoted often in the near future.

In the meantime, on the same occasion, a friend of mine, an American lawyer well known in some circles, reminded me that in the US the age group that is growing faster, in proportional terms, is the one concerning the people aged 95 and plus.

European defence and the fools

I have yet not found the time to look at the proposals that are being prepared for the December EU Summit on European defence. But knowing what I know about the national armies in the key member states and all the budgetary cuts and reductions of means that are taking place all over Europe, I am afraid the proposal might be a disaster and an illusion. The so called EU defence might end up by being a ghost that nobody fears.

I recognise we might have some serious reservations about the US and its spying habits. But to think we can have a European defence without a strong alliance with the US is totally foolish. And Brussels these days has plenty of fools roaming around. 

Let's have hope

Today I told someone: The glass might be empty but it is not broken.

Riga is a good example

For the third time in a row, duty brings me to Riga during the last three weeks of September. And I should immediately add I am always delighted to be in this city. It is a pretty place, very well kept, with many parks, flowers and promenades, little or no traffic in the heart of it, and an atmosphere of peace, calmness, good manners and strong optimism.

I think people from other European cities should be brought here to learn a lesson or two. For instance, as we are about to have municipal elections in Portugal, at the end of the month, it would be good for the Portuguese to have some of their key mayoral candidates to come first to Riga and get some inspiration. Lisbon, Porto and other Portuguese places are beautiful spots with uninspired managers in charge.  

German elections

The German Election Day is getting closer. But there seems to be more debate in several corners of Europe about these elections and their impact of the future of the EU than in Germany itself. Domestically, the issues being discussed are very pedestrian. And there is indeed very little interest in matters larger than the petty things that are on the German table. Any reference to the euro, the Brussels institutions reform, the countries in financial distress or the banking union is no more than a passing whisper. It has very little weight.

One or two key observers keep repeating that Berlin simply lacks the political ambition to provide straightforward leadership in times of big challenges. I do not think so. Merkel and the others know what they want. And they are satisfied with what they have now, when it comes to Europe: no borders, a free trade zone, a strong euro and a bunch of governments that are too preoccupied with their own domestic problems to be able to pay more attention to the Union. Better, they are too busy to be able to challenge Berlin and ask for more from the Germans.

It is that kind of “minimal Europe” or “status quo Europe” that pleases the Germans. Then, they can think about their little problems at home and keep increasing the exports to Asia, the Middle East and the US. And that’s what they have been doing. The rest of the world is now more important for the German industries than the fellow European countries. And that determines the level of ambition Berlin wants to have

Putin's writings

President Putin’s opinion text in the New York Times is worth the reading. First, it is well written. Second, it says a few things that make sense, including the reference to the “exceptionalism” the US claim. Third, it keeps the door open for dialogue.

But it is also an extraordinary piece of cynicism. Many of the accusations he implies against the US can also be made towards Russia, including an extreme form of Russian nationalism that is not far from the American exceptionalism.

The wise thing to do is to take the good points he makes and engage the Russians on them. That’s why the meeting that is taking place in Geneva between Secretary Kerry and Minister Lavrov is of great importance. It has, however, to produce concrete results. Time is of the essence. Agreements and action plans, and above all a UN Security Council Resolution on the destruction of Syria’s chemical arsenal, need to be out and running soonest.

Furthermore, besides addressing the chemical weapons issue it is also critical to bring to justice the perpetrators of the 21 August massacres. A Resolution on this matter is also necessary.

With all this in mind, Syria’s case remains the priority number one in the global lists of issues. The daily death toll and the incredible number of refugees and internally displaced people are a reminder of that. A painful reminder, a dramatic reality for millions of people. 

New international relations theories in the making

History is happening on a daily basis.

Very exciting times, indeed. And also very enriching in terms of new approaches to international relations. They are an invitation for an in-depth reflection about might and right. 

A very good gaffe

John Kerry’s remark on the international control of Syrian chemical weapons might have been a blunder. But thanks to Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, the blunder has become a tiny window of opportunity. And in a world that is tired of wars and abominates state-sponsored violence, as well as all types of violent conflict, the blunder is now a powerful argument against one-sided strikes.

History is so often built on blunders. And historical blunders have led to so many disasters. Maybe this time we will have a positive development coming out of a gaffe. 

EU, Syria, ICC and imagination

International law and moral principles are against collective punishment. One cannot punish the people for the crimes perpetrated by some of their leaders. Even in matters of war crimes and related offenses, the responsibility cannot be attributed to a group of leaders. It has to be linked to the individual responsibilities of each one of them, taking into account that there are different degrees of responsibility that call for different types of sentences. That’s why I think it is important to underline the following paragraph in Baroness Ashton’s statement of yesterday on the situation in Syria:

“The EU recalls the individual responsibility of the perpetrators of attacks of this type, who must be held accountable, and the role of the ICC in investigating and judging such acts.”

I wrote something similar in my weekly column of Visao, two or three days ago. But I went further. The UN Security Council has the duty to refer the chemical attacks to the International Criminal Court for investigation. It will be the Court that will decide on who should be in the list of suspects and then proceed against each one of them.

This is the way forward. 

It can, of course, be combined with a political process. And it should.

They are both missing. The ICC and the political process.

Some of us continue to prefer action to justice and imagination. Yes, imagination, because a political process in the case of Syria is above all an exercise extremely demanding in terms of creativity. 

Prying eyes

President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil said that her planned visit to the US can only go ahead if she receives a clear explanation from President Obama regarding the spying accusations. Indeed, the US seems to have been snooping on the Brazilian President –and others, such as the Mexican head of State. This is certainly a very unfriendly action and one understands Dilma’s position. It is the only acceptable response.

But in diplomacy realism tends to prevail. She will receive some type of assurances from Obama. Then, she will say the US has apologised and the visit will move on. That’s fine. By then, the point would have been clearly stated. The question will however remain: one cannot envisage an American administration that is not “watching” under cover what the two main rivals of the US in Latin America are cooking. Washington will say sorry, and then change the system and will continue the old practise. It is in their blood and in their own interest, as they see it.

It is up to Brazil and others to keep protesting and keep saying this is not acceptable.  And to try to protect itself from prying eyes.

Thinking aloud

At a time of great uncertainties, the key responsibility of a political leader is to minimize potential risks and bring tranquility to the minds of the citizens. To contribute to further instability, uncontrollable perils and to the loss of economic opportunities is bad leadership. Even when moral values and principles are on the line, the point is to respond to those challenges within the law and rules that can be accepted by the larger number of people. To go alone on politics is the best way to increase the risk and to find oneself on the wrong side of the solution. 

A very complex environment around President Obama's choice

As we reach the end of today, we notice that the President Obama’s military option is losing momentum in the US House of Representatives and also in the American and European public opinions. It is become a tough call for the President.

In addition, Pope Francis's letter to the G20 leaders cannot be easily dismissed. The Pope reminds all of us that there is no alternative to the crisis but through dialogue and that a military intervention will make things much more difficult.

All this is creating an environment that will be deeply against the strikes once they take place. President Obama – and François  Hollande as well – will have to deal with the consequences in and around Syria, plus with the citizens’ views in their respective countries. This will transform  any military action into a political challenge of great complexity. It will open many unknown avenues.

Lottery and Assad

Now we know the Damascus official explanation. It runs basically along the following lines:

•           Saudi Arabia and Western intelligence agencies have given chemical weapons to their friends the rebels;
•         The point was for the rebels to make use of them the day the UN inspectors were to start their visit and get the blame on the Assad government;
•          The fellows tried to shoot them from the suburbs they controlled but they were so inept - amateurs, the government said - that they could not send them across to the regime soldiers and to the areas under government control;
•           They kept trying, those amateur rebels, and the more they tried the more they failed and people around them, women and children, not only men, just kept dying in droves.

You believe this and you are ready to talk to Father Christmas about your forthcoming lottery win.

Poor minds, strong wills

I watched today’s hearing on Syria and have to say that I was not particularly impressed by the Senators that raised the questions. They obviously lacked a strategic view of the issue and a very limited understanding of the Middle East and the European capabilities –which are very small, when it comes to the ability to strike in a foreign land like Syria.

John Kerry, on the other side of the table, was much more strategic. He was able to contain his contempt for some of the questions. Only in one occasion he was about to go beyond a restrained approach.

General Dempsey, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was also very professional. I wonder what he thought of some the Senators’ interventions. Not much, I guess. These military top guys have a very low opinion about the professional politicians.

In any case, it seems now clear that the Congress will approve President Obama’s resolution on Syria. For a “limited and narrow” campaign, it is said. But nobody knows what that means. And moreover, in this type of affairs everything starts small as the plan is to achieve the expected results within days. Experience has shown that it never happens that way. One knows when it starts, but no one knows how it will move on. 

Rajoy's strange neighborhood policy

Mariano Rajoy of Spain has added a new international tension to his conflict with the UK over Gibraltar. This time is with Portugal. He has instructed his Permanent Mission in New York to send a Note Verbale to the UN Secretariat stating that Spain considers the Selvagens Islands, an archipelago South of Madeira Island and on the way to Canary Islands, as a mere collection of rocks. And for that reason, Spain cannot accept any Portuguese claim over the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around the Selvagens. 

This position is touching a sensitive chord in Portuguese history. There has been, in the past, for many centuries, a strong anti-Spanish patriotic feeling. This feeling has been seriously attenuated during the last two decades, but it is still there. It is never a good idea to kick the sleeping dog. 

G20 and Syria

Syria continues to occupy the front pages. It will also be the key matter on the table at the G20 meeting this week in St. Petersburg on 5 and 6 September. It is not on the agenda but it will dominate the discussions. President Obama's decision to strike Syria will be the ghost in the room. The fact that he is delaying any action until the following week will give some space for diplomatic consultations. But it will certainly not change the positions of the key players, especially Russia.

In the meantime, one would expect that the UN Secretary-General be prepared by then to share the preliminary conclusions of the inspections with the Security Council members. That would add some substance to the G20 exchanges.