Get the citizens´support back: the priority for the EU at this stage

I wrote today, in my contribution to the next issue of the Portuguese magazine Visão,  that the indifference of the citizens towards the European project is the most critical menace to the continuation of the Union. With the economic crisis, nations got used to look inwards and try to find their own solutions to challenges that were shared and should have been tackled jointly. As such, citizens lost the European perspective. The message they were getting from their political leaders was very clear: if there is a major crisis, each country has to take care of itself.

This erroneous approach needs to be corrected. Politicians and opinion makers have to underline, in very unambiguous terms, that the only way forward is for a joint European strategy to address critical issues of common interest. That will the first step to regain the support of the citizens. And that´s an urgent task. 

OPEC is moribund

OPEC, the oil countries organization, is less and less relevant. It´s deeply divided, it´s unable to attract new member states to join the 12 that make it, and its total production is less than one third of the overall oil production figure.

Today´s meeting has shown the impasse the organization is in. And the price of oil has tumbled as a result. 

What to think of Juncker´s economic plan?

Jean-Claude Juncker´s plan for economic recovery and expansion has now been presented to the European Parliament. It will be important to follow the parliamentary debate during the next few sessions, to see if this is a plan with wings and able to fly or just another heavy monster chained to cannon balls made of interests and flat ideas. 

EEAS: too many chiefs and few foot soldiers

I spent some time yesterday discussing with staff from the European External Action Service. And I got the impression they are a bit overstretched. Great staff but overwhelmed by the work, the complicated bureaucratic processes and the meetings they have to attend to. The lists of assignments keep growing, the level of ambition is huge, and the eagerness to take additional responsibilities is deeply rooted in the culture of the service. But the number of Indians available to carry out the work seems to me to be insufficient. Actually, the EEAS appears to be heavy on bosses and chiefs, and certainly very light on the question of work bees. 

Each country decides about its political options, including its international alliances

Sovereignty belongs to the people. This is a major political principle. It is a key pillar of today´s international relations. I might come from a small country, but the direction things take at home is my prerogative and of my fellow citizens. We choose. In today´s world, and particularly after the decolonisation and the fall of the Soviet empire, there is no need to ask for the neighbours ‘permission to opt for this or that political choice. It is our right. It is the right of each countries ‘citizens. We might be wrong but in the end we are the ones that will pay for the consequences. And we are ready for that. The only rule we have to take into account is about remaining within international values and conventions. We can decide about making an alliance left or right. We cannot however decide to violate human rights codes or discriminate against minorities, for instance. It is important to keep that in mind. 

Let´s support Tunisia

The Tunisian presidential elections – the first round was held today – are important for the country´s citizens, obviously, but also for the image of Arab revolutions.

Tunisia was the first country to undergo a major political change based on mass demonstrations. It is today the best example of democratization in the Arab world, notwithstanding the many problems the country is still confronted with. And all the friends of Tunisia and democracy in that part of the planet would like it to continue to be a good example. Even if we know that there are many dimensions that are far from being good, including some related to the old oligarchy, its corrupted practices and its attempts to highjack the process, we need to be able to say that there is pluralism, tolerance and rule of law in a country that shares its borders with states that are still in deep crisis.

We should also be able to convince the tourists to go back to Tunisia and all types of investors to look at the country´s potential. 

NATO countries should offer support to Kenya

It´s quite obvious that Kenya is a frontline country in the fight against armed and terrorist groups. The key NATO countries should engage more with Kenya and offer whatever support might be required to strengthen the capacity of the national authorities to do the necessary intelligence work and fight the terrorist organisations operating in the country or nearby.  

Respect the national choices and you have peace

Ukraine should be able to decide about its own future. That´s the basic rule when it comes to national sovereignty. And sovereignty is still a basic tenet in terms of defining the relations between states. Even in out interdependent world, even in a more integrated Europe, sovereignty is, in the end, the fundamental pillar of any nation. 

Sanctions have an impact on the views around President Putin

In the last few months, the Russian rouble has lost 30% of its dollar value. This is directly linked to the sanctions the Western countries have put in place against Russia´s economic and financial interests. And on top of it, there is a strong fall in the price of oil, which is a key export commodity in Russia. 

All of this bites and cannot be immediately addressed by alternative ties with China and other economies. Such ties take time to produce effects. Russia is confronted with short-term challenges. It is true they have a huge sovereign fund. That gives the leadership some space. But is it enough? One start getting reports of divergent approaches within the leadership. These needs to be further investigated. 

Rethinking peace operations

I spent the end of last week in Oslo at the invitation of the Norwegian Foreign Ministry. The aim was to review their support to peace operations during the past years and to reflect about future assistance. Norway is a small country but a big player in areas of peace and conflict resolution, as well as a very committed supporter of bilateral approaches. They are particularly keen in strengthening the African Union´s peace machinery and also the UN´s.

But peace operations, as they are implemented by those two organisations, are under serious stress. The new types of menaces, the nature of conflict in many parts of the world, the challenges the West is facing in non-Western societies, are some of the key issues that call for a rethink of the deployments. The models followed up to now are no longer suited for the violence we meet today, be it in the Central African Republic, in Nigeria, in the North of Africa or in the Middle East.

The discussion is ongoing. But it can´t take long. The crises call for quick responses, early results and smart political processes. 

People´s power is based on information and access to social media as well

The big banks are all under serious scrutiny. Their public image is at present very shaky. Every day we get news that more wrong-doings have been uncovered and that new huge fines have been decided against some banks. Very soon the public opinion will start asking questions about the bankers, not just the banks. People will expect individuals to be brought to the book.

At a time of mass access to information and widespread use of social media as a communication tool, one has to realise that all those in position of power, be it political, economic or financial, will be very exposed to the public eye. This is a new age of transparency. And in many aspects, it´s a new way of creating mechanisms of power control. Change is indeed taking place. Power is being challenged. 

800 at the G20

I am told the G20 leaders have approved 800 new measures. And I answer I can´t believe it. It is not possible. Someone is making fun of us. 

The heavy skies above the G20 Annual Summit

G20 annual summits have become a meaningless ritual. The one taking place today and tomorrow in the delightful city of Brisbane, Australia, is no exception. Just a few grandiose statements and a handful of leaders that are pretty preoccupied with their own home problems. The statements on global issues are just the usual staff, prepared by the aides and delivered for the gallery.

But this year´s meeting takes place at a time of great tensions. These tensions are now much bigger than the dramatic situations in the Middle East or in parts of Africa. To their complexities we should add new ones, in other corners of the world. These are dangerous times. One cannot ignore the seriousness of the dispute with Russia. And one should not ignore the potential for armed conflict in East Asia.

And these new realities were there in Brisbane and have made the atmosphere of the summit much heavier. Interestingly, Brisbane is used to heavy skies. So, its choice as the venue for the 2015 Summit of the G20 ended up by being rather symbolic. 

Russia is getting on our nerves

The renewed intrusion of Russian troops in Eastern Ukraine, which has been properly document during the last couple of days, has brought back a certain level of fear in Western Europe. In many circles, including in the top business spheres, the anxiety comes from the fact that Moscow´s geostrategic intentions are not clear. How far is the Kremlin ready to go? This is the question. And there is no good answer to it. When such a question cannot get a reasonable response key leaders on our side of the world get nervous. That´s where we are today.  

Armistice Day

Armistice Day: time to say yes to peace and cooperation in Europe. Including with Russia, of course. Partnerships between nations, starting with the economic partnership, are the foundation for a sustainable and prosperous future for all. Confrontation and prejudice can only bring us back to the old demons of the past. 

Nigeria is being destroyed as a result of many years of corrupted practices

A large number of school children were killed today in North-east Nigeria by a suicide bomber. It was another tragedy in a country that is a key target for extremists.

I feel very sorry for the people of Nigeria. But not just because of the mass killings. Also because the widespread insecurity is the tip of a huge iceberg, made of large-scale corruption. Plenty of money has been spent on the armed forces and the police and these institutions are as weak as the rest of the public services. A good chunk of the resources was wasted and misappropriated.

 Institutions have just become facades, nothing else. That´s why Nigeria, which has a very big military establishment, cannot deal with Boko Haram. If one takes into account that Boko Haram and the extremists are just a bunch of unsophisticated terrorists one realises better the measure of the inefficiency that has resulted from many years of corrupted practices at very high levels of authority. 

From the Berlin Wall to the APEC Summit

As our part of Europe celebrates the fall of the Berlin Wall against a background of deepening tension between East and West, 21 leaders on the other side of the globe, in Beijing, meet in the framework of APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum. Their background is also marred by a very high level of tension in that part of the world. In both cases, prudence and wisdom are the key requirements leaders should meet. Here and there, it would be a mistake to ignore the risks resulting from old misrepresentations and new rivalries.

These are the two regions of the world where any conflict could easily become a cataclysm. Things would get out of hand and the consequences would be unimaginable. It is therefore important to appeal for cooperation as the way forward. Blind competition and shows of strength are no way to resolve the issues of today. The leaders need to be so reminded. 

The leader provides the answers

When everyone has access to all types of sources of information and when opinions are shaped in seconds, through headlines, sound bites and quick-passing images, it becomes very difficult to be an accepted political leader. One has to be very clear about the kind of persona one wants to project, taking into account the support basis one aims to build. It is a never ending effort. The political leader is always in the public eye and cannot let his or her attention relax. It is also exhausting. That´s probably the reason why leaders come and go so fast. They are out of gasp before too long.

I thought about all this today again as I saw the latest figures about President François Hollande´s popularity. He is at a very low point. I think his case will be, sooner or later, the subject of a major academic thesis that will seek to understand how it was possible for a French head of State to sink so fast in the public opinion.

I also thought about leadership when I saw the reports about Ed Miliband, the boss of the Labour Party in the UK. He is confronted with serious criticism about his lack of leadership charisma. His detractors say basically that he cannot connect with the common person on the street. Connecting with people is essential. But what does it mean exactly? It is certainly about creating a relationship of trust. But confidence is not enough. One has to be perceived as the one that can provide the answers to the many interrogations people have today. And that´s particularly important at a time of uncertainties. And at present there are plenty of them in our part of the world. 

European should mean tolerance

I have been asked what could be the positive angle from which to look at today´s EU. Good question. And like all good questions, it is better to leave it open. To find the answer to such a question should be a collective endeavour for all of us. Each could bring a part of the answer and then we can construct the puzzle. Because part of European positive narrative is about giving a voice to everyone, from each corner of the Continent, and accepting each nationality as equal. In a Continent that has spent centuries at war with itself, that´s a big change for the better. And a good example for other regions of the world that are still engulfed in conflict and hatred. 

Let´s be positive about the EU´s future

It is time to fight the negative views of Europe´s future. This should be a key policy line for the new Juncker Commission as they start their work in Brussels. Europe needs a positive spin and a narrative that is clear about the common future of the Europeans. 

Africa´s development priorities

I wrote an opinion piece today to emphasize how important is for the international community to focus on the development challenges of Africa. This should be one of the top priorities in the global agenda for the next two or three decades. And the key areas of intervention have to be, as I see them, the following: governance, energy development and agricultural change. Resources, both from Africa and from elsewhere, should go first to these three sectors. That will be the only way to address the compound problems of extreme poverty, population growth and chaotic urbanisation.