Time to re-engage Erdogan

Erdogan´s party has added another electoral victory to its prize list. A large number of the voters have gone for stability and economic growth, the two flags associated with the Prime Minister’s leadership. One has to respect the Turkish people´s choice.

But Erdogan has also to realise that those who have voted against him, and they are more than half of the population, also call for respect. They are no traitors. They just happen to be young, better educated, urban based, and people that value the right to have a different opinion about the governance of Turkey. They also aspire for a government that is ready to effectively fight corruption and power abuse.

The fear is that Erdogan will read into the results a license to be harder on the opponents.

That´s why the leaders of the EU have to re-open the political dialogue with him. That´s the way to a more tolerant leadership in Turkey. 

The demise of traditional parties is now a serious prospect

The French have decided to vote against the government candidates on today´s local elections. But above all, they have decided to abstain from voting. Over 16 million said no by keeping themselves far away from the polling stations. Basically, this shows that the traditional parties can no longer be seen as the political vehicles people´s aspirations. The citizens, all over the place, in France and elsewhere in Europe, are deeply dissatisfied with the way professional politicians behave.

That´s probably the reason why they have elected, in Slovakia, an outsider to be the country´s next president. The prime-minister, a long standing figure in national politics, was just defeat by a businessman.

On this same day, the British media has printed the results of the latest opinion survey. The Labour Party is just one percentage point ahead the governing Conservatives. This happens notwithstanding the very erratic policies the Conservative government – the Tories – have tried to implement, with less than convincing results, during the last three years. People in Britain are also running away from the old parties. Unfortunately they are moving their support to UKIP, the Independence Party of Nigel Farage, a good speaker who manages to hide some of his racist ideas behind some demagogic policies. UKIP is rapidly becoming the third force in British politics. This is a major feat because the system there is constructed in such a way that it gives very little chances to any alternative to Labour and Tory parties. If the British voter is going UKIP that shows how discontent she or he is with the current system.

And more examples could be found throughout the EU. 

No comprehensive approach at the EU

My first meeting of the day was spent listening to a general, who has recently served in a mission, complaining about the incompetence of the officials at EU External Action Service (EEAS), and the superficiality that defines the work of EU Political and Security Committee. He was particularly bitter about the lack of understanding of the comprehensive approach concept. Most of the officials still see things in silos, and have no overall vision on how to bring together the different means available within the EU and its political, developmental, humanitarian and security pillars. In addition, the civilian and diplomatic officials have very little interest in listening to the military and police sides. When they do it, they seem not to be listening. It is just a ritual that they have to go through. 

Ashton and the hesitant EU states

Today Baroness Ashton, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy has issued a statement on “the extremely grave situation in the Central African Republic”. The title says everything. Or maybe, almost everything.

The statement recognises that the situation has been deteriorating very seriously since the beginning of this week. The French troops and the African military mission are just overwhelmed by the increasing violence, the widespread attacks against Muslims, and the generalised chaos in a country that has been pretty chaotic for a bit of time now.

The main addressees of this declaration are the EU states themselves. They have been very reluctant in fielding a peace mission in support of those already on the ground. The EU governments have invented all kinds of excuses to delay the deployment of the forces. Some of these forces are ready to go but their political masters prefer to say that they need additional training, just as a way of procrastinating.

It is true that CAR is far away. One can even say that Libya is much closer and is still in disarray and the Europeans do very little to help this neighbour. There is a big difference though. Libya is not witnessing a genocide-type of conflict. There the issue is more about strengthening the state authority.

I can understand the reluctance on the European side when it comes to sending troops to address a law and order challenge. Troops are not policemen. They are supposed to deal with military threats. But if you do not have enough gendarmes and special police forces to deploy, you go for the military solution as stop-gap approach. It is either that or more innocent civilians being simply massacred.

For those like me who have spent a few years dealing with the country and the region, the short term response – to stop the violence – does not seem too difficult and certainly it would not require a very large force.

It calls however for a commitment on the EU side that is now clearly absent. And Mrs Ashton cannot state it with the same clarity I can. But she means it.

Egypt: unacceptable court proceedings

Let me be clear. Kangaroo courts and irrational judgments like the ones now taking place in Egypt are simply unacceptable. The way hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood sympathizers and activists have been sentenced – most of them to death – has to be denounced as totally inappropriate in any country today. It is just absurdly infamous and nothing can justify that type of processes. Each trial is a violation of the most basic human rights

I realise the Egyptian society is now deeply divided. But it cannot be guided by blind hate. It has, on the contrary, to find ways to bring people together. There is no way one segment of society is going to be able to annihilate the opposing segment. They have to compromise and live together.

I am very surprised by the Western leaders´ silence. I cannot understand why the EU and the US are not loud and clear about these medieval approach to governance in Egypt. 

French ideas

The outcome of the first round of France´s local elections calls for a serious refection about the mood among ordinary voters. Many people, in France and other parts of Europe, are just tired of traditional political parties. As they are also tired of the old clichés about left and right. They want jobs, security and responsible, honest politicians. That should be the agenda. But without extremist ideas, xenophobic prejudice and nostalgia for a world that is now past. We live in Europe, in a community of nations, we have to build how future on that fact, not against it. 

Cool down, gentlemen!

The analysis available this evening does recommend a cooling down of the rhetoric. The messages have been pretty well received in Moscow, they got the picture, which is of clear condemnation, and I think that should be enough for the time being. It is important to be perceived as firm, true. That´s now understood in the Kremlin. But it is also necessary to avoid an escalation of words. Many conflicts have started because the wrong words have been said and misunderstood. As we live in dangerous times, it is important to avoid too many words, too many inflammatory statements or declarations that might create anxiety, confusion and destabilisation of the economic setup, which is very fragile. 

Moving North

In the last few days, the number of illegal emigrants that have tried to cross the Mediterranean Sea to reach Italy and the EU has increased dramatically. This flow shows that spring has arrived and the waters are much calmer. It also shows that the trend to migrate to Europe through North Africa, particularly through Libya, has not gone down, notwithstanding the lack of suitable jobs in our part of the world. But for a young man from Niger or Senegal, from Pakistan or Bangladesh, the dream is clear: to come and work in Europe is the ambition.

Recently I was trying to discourage someone from getting into this kind of adventure. Based in Dakar, a city that has gone poorer and overcrowded during the last fifteen years or so, the young fellow couldn´t believe me when I told him that there is no job for a bricklayer in today´s Europe. For him and his friends the truth is very simple: where they live today there is no future. And if you are a person full of energy you just keep moving. 

On today´s Turkey

It is time for the EU leaders to have a serious discussion about Turkey. More than ever, it is necessary to agree on a common position. And be very clear when it comes to governance issues in Ankara. 

The buoy on offer

It is always a serious mistake to ignore the feelings of each part to a conflict.

Conflicts do escalate because of feelings, matters of honour, fear of being perceived as weak, of losing the face, and other issues of national pride and history. The understanding of is of national interest gets then blurred. The obvious economic cost of war is disregarded, as it is the human dimension. The flag becomes more important than the individual.

Mediation is about finding a way out from such powerful irrationality.

The UN Secretary-general´s visit to Moscow and then to Kiev is a critical move that should be seized as a much needed buoy in very choppy waters. 

Baltic bridges

The Baltic States are all members of NATO. That´s a big difference when their situation is compared with Ukraine´s. But there is more. They are part of the EU, including of the Schengen space, and two of them have the Euro as their currency. These are major reasons for their citizens of Russian ancestry and ethnicity to consider that they have a lot to gain if the current status quo of the Baltic countries is maintained. They would certainly feel less free and less able to move around if they were to become part of Russia.

But the Baltic leaders also have a major role to play. They should recognise the rights of the minority populations that live in their countries, including the official recognition of Russian as one of the national languages.

I have said several times to my Baltic friends that they have a lot to gain by being neighbours of Russia and part of the EU. They can be the bridge that everyone would like to see strengthened.

This is therefore no time for inappropriate rhetoric. 

Beware of extremist ideas in Europe

Based in the UK, the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) is an independent think tank that is spending quite a bit of its resources on research about the extreme right movements in Europe. The research is also used to make policy recommendations.

It is worth to look at its webpage at:

 http://www.strategicdialogue.org

The right-wing extremism is one of the growing concerns in certain EU countries. Racism, xenophobia, radical nationalism and anti-liberal authoritarianism are its key features. In addition, there is also the risk of violence related to religious fanaticism.

It would be a serious mistake to pretend EU is immune to that kind of violent ideas. Actually, as we get closer to the European elections we can see that ultra-right parties are gaining ground in several countries.

It is critical to fight them politically. But in some cases, they are just a matter of law and order. Their leaders should be brought to the book. 

Putin´s isolation

For many, the world, their world, is a dangerous place to live. Just take the example of the farmers in three villages in the Kaduna state, Nigeria, that have been massacred by nomad pastoralists a couple of days ago. Or the people in Syria, who have been in the midst of dreadful civil war for the last three years. Or those in Afghanistan who have only known war for such a long time.

And one could mention many other places.

In view of this, the politics of confrontation that guide Vladimir Putin´s actions in his part of the world are a matter of great concern. They could take us towards open conflict. Therefore, they require a very firm response from the West. Change through rapprochement, the approach we have followed during the last twenty years, is not understood by Putin. He reads in it weakness. That´s very unfortunate. It is therefore time to change our approach. And use isolation and strong diplomacy as the new tools. It is in our interest and certainly in the interest of peace in Europe.

We should not forget that Putin´s hold on power is grounded on the revenue coming from the export of his country´s natural resources. Less trade and less investment will in the end contribute to let him understand we are now in a more interdependent world, where cooperation is more important than confrontation. We only have to find the right way to make such a message crystal clear. 

One veto

The UN Security Council is certainly in need of deep reform to reflect today´s world. But, for the time being, it is the ultimate platform where matters of peace and security can be decided. It is therefore of critical importance, even when decisions are not taken because of one or more vetoes. For instance, when all the members of the Council vote for a resolution and one of the five permanent sitters casts a negative vote, this veto has a tremendous political meaning. Particularly if the resolution was trying to address an issue of directly related to the international behaviour of the vetoing country. By saying no that country is just showing to be on the wrong side of the international community´s wisdom. 

Interdependence and new approaches to conflict resolution

During the last two or three days, there have been gigantic amounts of financial resources that have been transferred between countries as well as many selling operations in the stock markets. Financial assets owned by Russian entities have been moved out of American and European banks and transferred to what they consider to be safer havens. In addition, EU banks and funds have taken way from Russia many of their financial investments. There is a move away from the Russian currency, the rouble.

All this is precautionary. But it sends a very strong message, including to Vladimir Putin, that today´s economic and financial interdependence does require a different approach to conflict between major states. Diplomacy and compromise are more in line with today´s interests. 

Oil, economic recovery and key geopolitical areas of interest

The price of Brent Crude Oil has been relatively stable during the last 12 months. It has oscillated around US $105 and $108. During the last five days or so, it has even decreased slightly. I take this as an indicator that there is more serenity out there, among those who know what´s going on, than the events in Ukraine let us believe. This is certainly good news. We need calm waters out there. The economic recovery is still very precarious, particularly in the EU, and we can´t afford major disruptions. Oil remains an important factor in terms of the recovery and its price can have a critical impact on economic and social stability in Europe.

That´s why we have to pay more attention to the situation in Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, and also make sure that Iran plays ball as agreed and can be back in the oil market as an important supplier.

These are some of the countries that would call for more focus within the EU machinery. 

Ukraine and the new defence architecture in Europe

The EU game plan for Ukraine must match Russia´s will to cooperate. That has to be made very clear to the Kremlin. If Russia´s ambition goes beyond reasonable expectations and leads to the annexation of Crimea and other parts of Ukraine, the EU has to move beyond economic and budgetary assistance and have a comprehensive approach. It is true that the EU defence policy is too short. But its member states could help Ukraine to reach a stronger partnership with the existing defence mechanism that the West has in place.

  

That is the message that needs to be put across to the Kremlin. If things on their side go too far then they can expect Ukraine to become much more integrated in the Western defence architecture. In other words, if Russia changes the balance of power in Eastern Europe, then the West will have to find a new equilibrium that would certainly include the new Ukraine. 

Moving away from Russia may gain speed

President Putin believes he will be in a stronger position after the Crimean referendum on Sunday. He knows that the result will be favourable to those who advocate the integration of the Peninsula in the Russian Federation. This is not a very difficult guess as many of those who oppose it will be intimidated and will stay away of the polling stations. But he is wrong to believe this will strength his hand. This will give additional weight to all those in the West that keep saying we shouldn´t cooperate and trust the current Kremlin leadership. And these people will push for less dependency of Russia´s natural resources and markets. For less economic links as well. They will stress that alternatives do exist. And that will be a strong trend in the next few years.

  

Calm down on Ukraine, please!

The rhetoric on Ukraine remains too passionate. It is time to de-escalate the war of words as well. At the end of the day, the EU and Russia should unite to save the country from violent conflict. They should also co-sponsor a joint economic recovery programme that would bring the Ukrainian economy back to its feet. That should be the aim of the diplomatic initiatives in the next few days. 

Clinton´s Hitler

Madness is a key ingredient in the making of a political leader. The crazier one is the greater are the chances of getting in charge. We tend to let mad people go ahead with their folly and they end up in positions of power.

Today´s candidates to top the crazies and dreamers lists look like stranger idiots from the cold. These are dangerous times.

This is also a very regrettable trend.

Mrs Clinton felt she should joint this club. And to be sure she would be accepted in the inner circle, she came to the fore and compared Hitler with the Russian leader. A very unfortunate comparison. But it can certainly bring a good handful of votes. And in politics that´s much more important than being reasonable and moderate. 

Back and promoting negotiated solutions to shared crises

Back from a long voyage, I recall that one of the last posts I wrote before travelling has been about Russia and NATO. That post remains so current!

But I should add that we, on our side of the world, have a biased view of Russia as well. The Russians might believe in confrontation. But we have also shown we share the same believe. We might say that everybody wins if we cooperate and dialogue. However, we love to impose sanctions on others and still think that the ultimatum is a fine diplomatic instrument. Or the best diplomatic tool is to be able to understand the strategic interests of the adversary and initiate a dialogue taking such interests as the starting point for a negotiated solution.