Kerry on Syria

US State Secretary John Kerry’s statement on Syria was an excellent piece of work. Brilliant, well thought through and properly grounded. It is also, in many ways, a seminal moment in terms of foreign policy doctrine. It will be often quoted in the future.

But, for now, it deserves, above all, unqualified support. 

No time for a greater crisis in the Middle East

Very quietly but very clearly, the big international business bosses and their friends in the academic and media worlds here in the EU have been sending the message that a major security crisis in the Middle East at this time, when the European economies are starting a timid recovery, would be an extremely bad idea. It is not just the vast and uncontrollable uncertainty that it will create, not just the impact on oil prices, not just the fact that existing crisis around the Suez Canal is threatening enough, to mention only a few of current hot spots. It is all that combined plus the fact that some of the Middle East countries remain major clients and investors in the EU economies. It is no time to destabilize them, as well. International commerce does not want any adventure at this moment. 

Syria's hell

As things stand, we can expect over the weekend some cruise missiles to be launched on Syria from war vessels sailing in the Mediterranean Sea or in the Indian Ocean. In many ways, the rhetoric in Washington, Paris and London has gone too far. The accusations against Assad on the gas deaths of last week leave little room for any other option but action by those who publicly made them. The UN Security Council is being dealt with by the British. In the international division of labour, they got the assignment. Once it becomes clear that the Council is not prepared to authorise the use of force by rejecting the British draft resolution, the unilateral approach will be more palatable to the Western public opinion.

There are many problems related to military action, in any case. Even if approved by the Security Council. Once it starts, it opens a new phase and a box of unintended consequences. This is particularly true in a corner of the world that is like a tinderbox. Therefore, those who decide to go for it should be ready for hell. And they should also have a clear end-game alternative. Unfortunately, experience has shown that we think small and never prepare for the big and complex situation that will follow. 

Assad is a war criminal

The gas attack against civilians in the suburbs of Damascus simply reveals how little respect Assad and his circle have for the international community and in particular for the United Nations.  They all know that the UN is divided and that the just launched international inspection is a mere tooth-less tiger. The many deaths caused by this unacceptable chemical massacre only serve to remind all of us that Assad has long become a war criminal with powerful godfathers.   

Summer matters

I am on vacation this week in the Southern Province of Portugal, known as Algarve. It is still the peak of the holiday season in this part of the world. The beach going crowd is still very busy getting tanned. People from Portugal and from other places in Northern Europe live side by side practising the same old cult of Sun worship. This is a very non-violent way of celebrating life and a certain standard of living. Many might not be able to afford it, but the fact of the matter is that it opens a large number of jobs and business opportunities. A good Summer is synonymous of good business.  

Egypt and Turkey

During his time in office, Morsi developed a close relationship with Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey. This political alliance has certainly raised many eyebrows within the leadership of the Egyptian Armed Forces. They were very much aware of the treatment reserved by Erdogan and his party to the Turkish generals and admirals and they could foresee the same kind of fate befalling on them, sooner or later. For many undecided top officers this growing proximity between Cairo and the party in power in Ankara became reason enough to convince them that inaction was no option. It would be rather a fatal mistake. 

Egypt: where are the leverage points?

Egypt is probably the most important country in the Arab world. Because of its size, the Suez Canal, its mixture of Muslim and Christian populations, its border with Israel and the Gaza Strip, its scholarly relevance, the relations with the US, the competition for political influence between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and so on.

For those reasons, the dramatic events of these days keep sending shock waves well beyond Egypt’s neighbourhood. And everyone, in all the key capitals, is looking for means to influence both sides in the country. But they have not been successful. The question that is in everyone minds is very clear: what could be the leverage points that might give weight to foreign pressure. And that question remains without an answer. 

Egypt's future can only be built on compromise

Following the dramatic situation that has developed in Egypt, the EU and the US are struggling to issue “politically correct” statements. If you read what the European capitals have published about the events or listen to President Obama’s commentary, you realise that everyone wants to condemn the violence and, at the same time, avoid any words that might undermine the authority of the Egyptian military. This is an impossible exercise of balancing.

In the meantime, it is also impossible to be optimistic about Egypt’s foreseeable future.  Violence on both sides has gone too far and that makes the adoption of sensible positions much more difficult. Both camps seem to bet on confrontation and force, in a country that is only viable if based on compromise. And that, for me, is the key message the world should pass on to Cairo. 

Mali as an example

Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, aka IBK, won the Malian presidential elections and should be congratulated. It is a clear and clean win. We should also congratulate the people of Mali for the peaceful and mature political process. That had happened in the past, in 1992, 1997 and 2002, and again this time. As such, the country is regaining its credentials as a democratic state and a place of culture and respect.

I had said in this blog that the elections timetable was too tight and the elections could not be prepared seriously. I happily recognise I was wrong.

Now the challenge is to bring state administration back and get it to function.  And keep an eye on the donors’ promises and make sure they are delivered. The Malians have shown they deserve the support of the international community. 

Rajoy's can of worms

Rajoy’s circus around Gibraltar reminds all of us that Portugal has also a long standing territorial claim over Olivenza, a town in the Estremadura Province of Spain. The town and the surrounding countryside have been under Spanish control since the War of Oranges in 1801, but it is not recognized by Portugal. The area has been Portuguese territory since 1297.

Gibraltar also brings back the dispute between Spain and Morocco regarding two North African cities, Ceuta and Melilla. Both are under Spanish sovereignty notwithstanding the fact that they are located in the part of Africa that defines Morocco.

Rajoy is therefore opening a can of worms. He should instead focus on the Spanish economy and answer to the accusations of bribery and corruption that allegedly are so closely associated to his political career. 

Israel's intentions

As Israel announces that 1,200 new homes will be built in the occupied territories, it came to my mind that I have yet to meet a leader in Western Europe that believes in the new round of peace talks John Kerry has been pushing for. Everyone I talked to and every opinion I have read show that in this part of world the current government of Israel is perceived as not really interested in the talks. Moreover, there seems to be little patience left to deal with Prime Minister Netanyahu.

And, by the way, people have forgotten that there is one Mr Blair that is supposed to be doing something out there, as “Representative” of the Quartet. If you mention is name, the reaction is: “Oh, dear! I thought he had left”.

He might be the only European that does not give up the Israel-Palestine business!

Summer in Portugal

The preliminary assessments seem to indicate that this has been so far a good summer season in Portugal. The number of foreign visitors is up. Many of them chose the country because it remains tranquil and predictable. There have been no serious labour disruptions this summer.  It should continue like that.

Lisbon as seen from my veranda looks like a major destination for large cruise ships. Every day I see at least two coming in the morning for a day visit. It’s a great view. We need the business they bring in. But we also need them to have a good day in the city and be able to go back and tell everyone that the place is fine and worth the visit.

At the end of the day, tourism is about business and image. Both are critical for a country like Portugal. 

Rajoy's plot

The noise made by Madrid around Gibraltar in the last few days is a manoeuvre, by the embattled Prime Minister of Spain, to divert people’s attention from the political mess in which he dug himself in.

Globalization needs public debate

As the discussions on a free trade agreement with the US get – painfully – off the ground, I notice growing opposition in many segments of the EU public opinion against anything that might look like opening new doors to globalization. It is not just the workers’ movements, or the small entrepreneurs, or people from the left or the centre-left. The opposition also comes from heads of larger firms and others that know the world and have very much benefitted from the opening of the borders. It is also now the key feature within the nationalist groups.

The debate about globalization has lost objectivity. Everything is now about fears, vested interests, and protection from outside competition.  Those who should explain the advantages of a more open world market and how to operate in tomorrow’s global economy have preferred to remain silent. To do so is to give space to all kinds of populist views and to encourage retrograde politics to take over. It is, in my opinion, a dangerous withdrawal.  

Diversions and maneuvers

Manipulation of public opinion is one the oldest tactics in the bag of tricks of secret services, isn't it? 

Turkey and the EU

Leaders in the European Union look with perplexity at the sentences passed on top Turkish military officers and other civilian personalities, all of them accused of attempted coup d’état. But, as it has become the practice, they have decided to remain silent. It is however a silence that will weight a lot when the matter of Turkey’s accession to the EU will be on the table again. 

Post-elections period in Zimbabwe

It would be wise for the EU to accept the assessment made by the African Union regarding the Zimbabwe elections of 31 July. That assessment can also be combined with the findings of the Zimbabwean Electoral Support Network, a consortium of NGOs that deployed 7,000 observers throughout the country. We have then a more balanced opinion. EU can then state that it follows that balance, based on the judgement made by credible Africans, and express its willingness to constructively engage with the new government in Harare. Constructive engagement with anyone that matters is better than negative criticism. 

Iran's new President

Today Hassan Rouhani has replaced Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president of Iran. Like many within the country, I think the key players in the international community should see the new leader as an opportunity for constructive re-engagement with Iran. The approach to be followed has to be gradual, of course, and implemented by the Six-Party powers in a very well co-ordinated manner.

Rouhani’s two main concerns are clear to me: to put a stop to the serious economic decline Ahmadinejad’s policies have generated; and to improve the country’s relations with the key international players.

 If we in the West are aware of these imperatives he is confronted with and play along, we might achieve some degree of success.

It is in our interest to see a turnaround in the economy of Iran and have a leadership in Tehran that understands that international cooperation is the best option for them and for the region. 

Berlusconi

Italy’s governing coalition has become very shaky. Its future is unclear. Silvio Berlusconi will make things very difficult in the next few days. He thinks he needs to create a major national crisis. That’s the way the man behaves and this time is pretty serious for his personal survival and place in history. He will not forgive. He will try every trick to create a mess as a way of cleaning his reputation. And he is a man that will not hesitate to bring the country down if he himself is going down.

Assad, the master of the cemetery

Syria has very much disappeared from the radar screen of international affairs. The “July Conference” is like July itself: no more! The EU and the US seem to have concluded that Assad is not moving out of power. In addition, the Syrian opposition they could work with is more divided than ever. Turkey, on the other hand, after its own domestic social unrest, has cooled down its enthusiasm to play a bigger role in the neighbourhood. And Qatar and Saudi Arabia keep moving apart, with divergent interests at play.

Assad is therefore keeping the moment and the initiative. He knows that time and the mood in the international community are favourable to his aims. He might be ruling the ruins of a country, but he will be in power. For a tyrant, this is the best insurance he can get. It is better to be in charge of a cemetery than to be in the uncertainty of exile.