Peacekeeping and peace building in Africa

Thoughts on Peacekeeping within an African background

Victor Ângelo

1.       Introduction

On 10 April 2014 the UN Security Council approved the deployment of a peacekeeping mission in the Central African Republic (CAR), to be known as MINUSCA. Resolution 2149 (2014) defines MINUSCA´s contextual parameters and objectives. The starting date for the mission will be 15 September 2014.

With another five months to go, that date looks far away. This is especially the case when the serious turmoil in the CAR since late 2012 is taken into account. And this timeline becomes even more problematic when repeated warnings from senior UN staff are recalled – that the situation was out of control and it was clear that the country was sliding into genocide.

A brief comment on the timing of the resolution that has just been adopted would emphasise the absurdly slow decision-making pace of the Security Council. If the premier international body responsible for peace and security – which basically means safeguarding human life and preventing severe violations of human rights – takes such an incredibly long time to respond to a not-so-complex crisis like the one in the CAR, what can we expect from the Council in more intricate situations?

“Not much indeed”, would be tempting to answer.

However, the issue is more intricate than this reply suggests. The slow response to the situation in CAR shows that there are a number of serious problems related to UN’s peacekeeping capabilities, particularly in an African setting and in a region that is not directly linked to the strategic interests of the major global powers.

This is a very serious issue that requires urgent attention. Peacekeeping must be effective, fast-moving and people-centred. The UN remains the key player in matters of peacekeeping. In the end the security question that is so often raised is the security of the ordinary citizens, in particular the most vulnerable among them.  

There is no other international or inter-governmental institution that is in a position to play a comparable role, not even the African Union (AU), notwithstanding all of efforts the African leaders have made over the last 15 years to strengthen this kind of capacity within their regional organisation. The AU´s African Standby Force (ASF) is still work in progress, even in the East African region, where the preparatory work has gone further. At this stage, it is extremely optimistic to believe that the ASF will be fully operational in 2015, as was recently recommended, in the December 2013 assessment, which further recognised the many delays this undertaking has suffered so far.

Outside Africa, NATO has been mentioned as a possible actor in the areas of peace enforcing and peacekeeping. However, the Atlantic Alliance has no vocation to play an international peacekeeping role. It could, in some cases, be used as a rapid response solution, as an entry force. But in the current circumstances, notably after the Libyan expedition and the deep-rooted tensions with Russia on the Eastern European front, it is highly improbable to have a UN Security Council request addressed to NATO. The same is true as far as the Russia-inspired Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is concerned. CSTO countries already established a peacekeeping architecture at the end of 2010. But the force is yet to be seen on the ground. To date, no operation has been assigned to CSTO. And it is difficult to foresee this organization playing any out-of-area active role in the medium term. However, both NATO and CSTO should be included in the wider debate about the future of peacekeeping.

There should be no doubt at this stage that the way forward is to strengthen the UN´s capacity to respond. As that happens, it should not be forgotten that Africa is the continent where most peacekeeping missions are deployed. Recent missions, in South Sudan, Mali and now in CAR, have been approved in response to African challenges. In this context, as the UN should address some of its key shortcomings in peacekeeping, African leaders should also be encouraged to continue strengthening their own capacities. The goal here, in parallel to the reform of the UN apparatus, is to create an African capacity to respond to violent crises within the continent´s five Regional Economic Communities (RECs). In the foreseeable future, the RECs must be able to put together their respective Standby Forces, harmonise operational abilities and develop their regional machinery to deal with peacekeeping, peacebuilding and political transitions.

But, at this stage, it is important to focus on some of the key issues related to UN´s peacekeeping, whilst taking into account African experiences and needs. What follows are some brief observations that should be considered in terms of advocating for the urgent need to sharpen the UN´s tools.

2.       Faster deployments 

UN peacekeeping deployments take too long to materialise. This has now been a key issue for the last seven years or so. This is particularly the case in Africa, but is more generally so in non-English speaking countries.

Large scale Troop-Contributing Countries (TTCs) are overcommitted, in view of the demands coming from huge missions that are still in the field in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Darfur, Cote d´Ivoire, Liberia, South Sudan and elsewhere. Take the case of Mali, for instance. Only 55% of authorised military personnel have been deployed so far, despite the fact that the mission was established almost a year ago. Many of the troops that were fielded by the preceding African-only mission in the framework of a regional response – in this case ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States) troops plus Chadian soldiers who were already on the ground before the UN military presence – could not be re-hatted and transferred to the UN because they did not meet the standards the UN requires for its contingents.

This will certainly be the same in the CAR. The 6,000 MISCA soldiers –troops from neighbouring countries belonging to the Economic Commission of Central African States (ECCAS) – will face the same difficulties in terms of their eventual re-hatting as blue berets. For many months there will be a poorly staffed MINUSCA trying to stretch itself in order to fulfil its mandate. Most likely, when the first period of the mandate comes to an end on 30 April 2015, the number of soldiers will be well below the 10,000 that the UN Security Council resolution 2149 authorised.

The same is valid for the police component. MINUSCA should have 1,800 police personnel, most of them gendarmerie. This component is critical in a mission that basically has to respond to issues of law and order in a society in chaos. However it is unlikely that the UN will be able to mobilize the required numbers. In general, states that participate in peacekeeping operations have no spare police capacity that can be made available. This is one of the big differences between police services and military forces – availability. The number of soldiers waiting for a job is much higher. And only a handful of countries have gendarmerie services. In Africa, this is the case mainly in French-speaking countries. Very often those gendarmerie forces are not fully prepared to serve within a UN mission. Like their military counterparts, their standards of training do not meet the minimum requirements for a UN assignment.

All of this has an impact on the timely fulfilment of operations´ mandates as well as the effectiveness and the image of the UN. As they try to emerge from traumatic crises and find any opportunity to make their living, people in the host nation will see many UN military convoys arriving over a long period of time, a never-ending flow of troops and highly conspicuous equipment. They will contrast this with very low levels of security operations. Before anything else, newly arrived soldiers will be busy with their own installation, building their infrastructure. This actually can easily be exploited by those in the country that are not in favour of an international military presence. Experience has shown that heavy and slow-paced deployments can undermine the political consent, which is critical for the mission.

Any crisis that is followed by a peacekeeping deployment must be able to show quick wins. And the easiest problem to turn around in the initial phase of a deployment has to do with the security environment. It might take long to address its most critical dimensions. But it is possible to improve the popular perception related to the low intensity security threats. This is where the priority should be. It has an immediate impact on the lives of the citizens. Changes to the security situation are among the first expectations. An improved situation is a winner, it terms of gaining people´s support. But doing so requires faster deployments, troops that can hit the ground running. This is not the case today, in most of the situations.

3.       Effectiveness 

The countries providing brigades and vast numbers of police personnel are generally African (Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, etc) and South Asian (Bangladesh, India and Pakistan). They are oversubscribed in terms of UN peacekeeping commitments. Very often, however, politically they do not want to recognise this, as the international assignments are an important part of their armed forces’ expectations. Rather, they tend to make promises and accept engagements without being sure they will have the capacity to deliver on time and with the necessary standards of quality. Also, the personnel they might be able to mobilise are general purpose infantry troops and street police officers. The force enablers and multipliers as well as air and ground mobility assets are generally insufficient and sometimes inadequate for the terrain in which they have to operate. Without them, the effectiveness of a field presence is very limited or even non-existent.

Complexity calls for more focussed deployments, highly trained men and women and more specialised military personnel. Missions now require many more Special Forces and intelligence officers – both for people-based and signals information collection and analysis – than just sentinels and patrolmen. The Council is still caught up in an approach that tries to respond to generic skills, poor performance and low standards by increasing the numbers of soldiers. This way of doing business needs to change.

For sure, this is an area where developed countries must be more forthcoming. During the last two decades they have been moving away from engaging troops in UN peacekeeping operations, with one or two exceptions, like the UNIFIL mission in Lebanon. It is time to see European and North American troops and police officers back in UN missions. The developed world must be a more active part of the peacekeeping equation. They must unequivocally demonstrate that global responsibility for peacekeeping is not shared out along the lines of money: those who pay for missions do not deploy and those who deploy, largely from the developing South, are paid to keep international peace. This undermines the principle of joint responsibility for world peace. It also does not take into account that the developed countries would have a greater chance to advocate for their values and interests if their soldiers could be found shoulder to shoulder with uniformed men and women coming from other regions of the world.  Moreover, richer countries have and can spare the specialised personnel so much in demand. They also have the specific, highly efficient logistics capabilities that peacekeeping operations in remote areas around the world require.  

The second move that more developed member states should make concerns training for defence and security personnel. The military training programme the EU is implementing in Mali is a good example and it should be replicated in the CAR. As it has just been decided for Mali, after a long hesitation, it must also include the gendarmerie and the police, not just the armed forces. Investing in the development of human resources and institutions is critical to help a country overcome chronic crisis. Richer nations must be much more committed to security sector reform and the development of defence, police and penal institutions in countries coming out of a deep national crisis. The capacity building packages must also include revamping justice systems –without forgetting the relevance of traditional methods of administering justice – as a means of combating impunity and contributing to national reconciliation and long-term stability.

A cautionary note though. Training national forces and reforming national defence and security institutions in a post-crisis country must be accompanied by a plan for financial sustainability. Experience has shown that African officers trained in the best US and European academies often feel a high degree of professional frustration when they return to their national army corps, because those units are underfunded. Indeed, because of lack of resources, most units are unable to go beyond a collection of “barefooted” armed men, dressed in uniforms of fortune and flea market camouflage. They have no real means to operate. They can easily become the breeding ground for the future wave of discontent and crisis, as we have seen in Mali in 2012. The issue of the financial sustainability of modern armed forces and police services in a number of African countries requires an honest debate.

4.       Strong political mandate

The effectiveness of any UN peacekeeping mission is clearly related to its political mandate. This mandate must be realistically defined.

In terms of the African-based missions, there is now a tendency to attach to mandates an array of concerns and objectives. They are certainly important but they are generally more related to long term development goals than to keeping the peace and creating the conditions for political transition and basic human security. It will be wise to strike a balance between comprehensiveness and the core objectives of peacekeeping. Focus would make the mission stronger. It would therefore increase the chances of success.

Mandates should above all aim at creating the political and security foundations on which peace building and development should rest. Actually, an area that requires greater attention, both in terms of knowledge and identification of the practical lessons learnt so far, is the one related to the connections between peacekeeping and peace building. But those links cannot be a pretext for unworkable mandates.

Next to focus, the political role of head of mission is critical for deep-rooted change, for the move from crisis to institutional, representative democracy. It is therefore indispensable to make sure the mission leadership gets the full political support of the Security Council and the relevant regional organisations (the AU, for instance, and the affected REC).

In addition, the UN Department of Peace Keeping Operations (DPKO) and the Department of Field Support (DFS) must be better prepared to exercise their respective backstopping roles. For too long, the state of mind in both departments has been inspired by the arrogant attitude and detachment that comes from working at headquarters and too far away from the realities of the daily life in the field. In particular DPKO has shown, on many occasions, to lack the skills and field experience necessary to provide the right type of advice to the missions that fall under its responsibility and to serve as a permanent channel between the field and the key countries in the Security Council. The rotation of staff between headquarters and field needs to be effectively implemented.

Leadership issues are crucial in all complex situations, particularly in countries that have gone through major national upheavals. Those issues are not only about the quality of the mission leadership or the sorts of diplomatic interventions carried out by regional leaders. Leadership is fundamentally about daring to create the domestic conditions for a renewal of the national political elites in the post-crisis situation and allowing for the right type of leaders to emerge, including at the local level. New times call for new leaders grounded on accepted political practise. Leaders with legitimacy. In this context, proper electoral processes, at the presidential, national and local levels, are critical elements of an exit strategy. They call for continued support by the best technical teams available within the international peace machinery. But they should not be considered the absolute benchmarks. To complete successful elections cannot be seen as the indicator that the mission has done its job and can leave. Nonetheless, fair elections do make the transition process more sustainable and open the door for an earlier exit of the international presence.

The emphasis on national and local political leadership cannot ignore the role of civil society. A strong the civil society is essential for stability, reconciliation and democracy. Peacekeeping missions must give the example and fully accept civil society as a critical partner in the transition process. That will send a clear message to the new political elite that will emerge after the crisis. Expertise on civil society relations must be part of the mission´s skills.

5.       Reducing costs

UN peacekeeping operations are very costly endeavours. A mission like the one just approved for the CAR might require a billion US dollars a year. This is undoubtedly a lot of money. Its financing is mandatory for the UN member states once the mission has been authorised by the Council. At a time of continued cost restraint and belt tightening, governments in key capitals, those that carry the main budgetary burden for UN operations, become very hesitant when it comes to this level of expenditures. This is a basic reason why approval of the resolution on CAR was delayed. Finance ministries have the first word when it comes to deciding about new international operations. Moreover, the Council knows when a mission will begin but has no clear idea about when it will end.  

It is therefore critically important to look at ways of containing costs. Not only should the mission objectives be clearly articulated, they should also be attainable within a reasonable amount of time. It is also imperative to build the national capacity to take over as soon as possible. The ultimate responsibility for peace and security in a country rests within its national borders, with its authorities and its citizens. Financial considerations make this principle more present than ever.

A further cost related question pertains to the exit strategy of the mission, which should be incorporated from the very beginning as a primary component of the mission design. It is essential that the Security Council asks DPKO and the head of the field mission to devise a reasonably defined plan focused on the gradual but steady transfer of responsibilities to the national and sub-regional authorities as soon as it is feasible to do so. Feasible means that peace can be sustained without direct intervention by the international community. A plan that would be both a road map to guide the peace keeping mission and serve as a blueprint for its exit strategy.

6.       Moving ahead

UN peacekeeping has achieved some notable results in the past. Sierra Leone, in Africa, and East Timor in the South Pacific, are just two recent examples of major successes in the recent past. UN peacekeeping has also changed a lot for the better over the last decade. Those who saw peacekeeping in the Balkans during the 1990s and then observe today´s operations notice that the UN has come a long way in terms of integration of different dimensions and creating a balance between the military and the civilian components of missions. There is now much greater emphasis on law and order and policing, justice, local administration and conflict resolution at the community level, as well as on gender equality and human rights. The UN has also accumulated extensive experience in terms of logistics supply and sustainment, air and ground mobility and support to humanitarian emergencies. 

But times keep changing. Conflicts are increasingly about basic natural resources and survival, differences in religious practices and faith-based behaviours, terrorism, wide spread banditry and criminality, and the collapse or limitations of state administration, living vast areas ungoverned. At the same time, violent conflicts tend to have deep and complex root causes, which necessitate time to be resolved. But the attention span of the international community has become shorter. And so many of us have acquired the fever of impatience, we live at the speed of the TV screen or even the social media, shaped by the 140-character approach. We want to see results before too long, if not immediately. Protracted conflicts tend to disappear from the public eye if they become too static or nothing happens. As they lose prominence, they receive less political and financial support. Their prolonged budgetary costs become more difficult to justify.

Sixteen missions are deployed in different parts of the world, nine of them in Africa. The defence sector has also been under review in several key developed countries, prompted by the need to adapt to contemporary threats and be prepared to respond to new international settings. This is therefore the moment to reflect again about the peacekeeping challenges as it was done almost 15 years ago, when the Brahimi report was issued.  Time and circumstances make it advisable to review and update the recommendations of that important and influential report.

It is also the time for the EU and the AU to reflect, in house and in their joint consultations, on what can be reasonably done by both parties to complement the UN peacekeeping work. This is a debate that should take place without further delay. It should be linked to the next evaluation of the EU African Peace Facility (APF) and its transformation into an instrument of the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy. For Africa, the doubling of APF resources over the next three years, recently decided at the IV EU-Africa Summit, is encouraging and certainly appreciated. But there is a need to go beyond resources, as important as they are, and look at the substance of what really needs to be funded and how that can be integrated in a long-term strategy of greater African self-reliance. This about Africa´s capacity to sort out its own conflicts.

This debate would also benefit from the long experience the Norwegians have acquired in the implementation of their Training for Peace programme (TfP). The programme, funded by the government of Norway since 1995 and managed by African institutions, has been able to evolve over time. It is now particularly attentive to training in the areas of African civilian capacities and police personnel for peacekeeping, as well as focused on the need to support applied research. In this, the EU has a good source of inspiration when designing the new generation of training missions. Such missions should take advantage of the Malian experience – the EU Training Mission –, be civilian led and as inclusive as possible.  

The way forward should further consider the experience of coalitions of the willing and the role of small groupings of countries as suppliers of peace enforcing and peacekeeping tasks. But this is a discussion for another time. However, it cannot be brushed aside and ignored. Nor should China´s ambitions to support peace and security operations in Africa be forgotten. Here, the China-Africa Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Security, approved in 2012, is worth noting.

All this calls for a very direct question: Who is going to lead the debate on renovating peacekeeping? It must be an institution that is in a position to bring all of the stakeholders together, including the EU, for sure, but above all, the African institutions that have the responsibility for peace and security throughout the continent.

The answer seems obvious.

April 2014

Egypt´s distress

Egypt´s current crisis raises many questions. Three years ago, the democratic transition for a post-Mubarak era had generated great enthusiasm. Then, after a brief and not always wise passage of the Muslim Brotherhood through power, the military took over. The coup d´état passed unnoticed in the Western capitals, a true miracle, like when one manages to walk in between the drops of the pouring rain. Now, hundreds of people are being sentenced to death, then in many cases their sentences commuted to life in prison, most of them just for the crime of being in the streets during mass demonstrations against the military authorities. It is a mockery of justice in a country that deserves more than this absurd – an unacceptable – way of dealing with discontent.

Below the surface we have a country that is unable to take care of itself. The population growth has been too rapid, a true explosion, and there is no economy to match it. Jobs are just not there. And the traditional solution – to migrate to richer countries in the Middle East – is less and less viable. People are too unskilled to be able to move out of their poor environment. They are trapped. That´s the worst thing that can happen to a poor person.

It is, in many ways, a wake-up call of situations to come in similar countries, in places with the same type of demographic and economic challenges. It should make one think deeply. But before that, it calls for a louder voice that is able to say that something is terribly wrong in the banks of the Nile River. It is time for the international friends of Egypt to step in. 

Forgotten Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is an example of a crisis that has moved out of the public eye. At the beginning of last decade and for many years, the country´s political chaos and economic mismanagement were very much at the centre of the international agenda. Then, gradually, as there was no real progress, the matter became a side issue, like an incurable disease that nobody wants to talk about because there is no hope any more. Moreover, it was an issue that kept poisoning the relations between EU, US and South Africa, as President Zuma – and somehow, prior to him, President Mbeki – did not appreciate the Western world continuous remarks about old “freedom fighter” Robert Mugabe. For these reasons, Zimbabwe rapid, unstoppable descent into hell turned from a hot issue into a matter that was better kept under diplomatic silence. One of those cases you do not talk about, because you know it is a painful and shameful stain in the family history.

Now, taking advantage of the silence and regional support, Mugabe is back in full power and the opposition is in full disarray. MDC, the opposition party, is more divided than ever and many of those divisions have to do with Mugabe´s ability to destroy the image of the MDC´s leadership.

Old Mugabe is a talented political fox. And little Zuma and company are just too afraid to speak up their minds. As we have also become, in our Western world. When we get tired and when it offends some of our powerful friends, we just play a different tune.

  

Africa´s population growth

Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is growing very fast. From less than a billion today, SSA will be home to

close to 2 billion people by 2050. This rate of population growth is a major challenge with a tremendous,
multidimensional impact in the Continent and globally. By mid-century, there will be in average two
Africans out of nine human beings and almost three times more Africans than Europeans.

The most immediate demographic challenge, that needs to be addressed today, is how to help Africa to
stabilise its overall population at the level of two billion. If we do not act now, the population in SSA will
continue to grow beyond 2050, well above the level that could be considered as sustainable. For that, the
demographic transition, as technically defined by the demographers, needs to be accelerated through
expanded free access to contraception and related health services, girls’ education and women’s political
empowerment. Currently less than 20% of African women use modern contraceptive methods, whilst in
Latin America and Asia the prevalence rate is well over 60% in average. But evidence as shown that access
to family planning services and proactive population policies are incomplete and lack effectiveness if they
are not accompanied by widespread campaigns to get girls to schools. Furthermore, for both issues –
contraceptive access and girl’s education - to get high on the national priorities, more women need to
occupy positions of political authority, as this type of development agenda is only genuinely implemented
if driven by women leaders. I would hasten to add here that men’s adherence is critical for the
demographic transition and the adoption of modern family life, but the change only takes place if women
are truly empowered and in a position to fight for their rights.

Israel and Palestine must talk about peace

Israel leadership is reacting the wrong way to the Palestinian reconciliation. Prime Minister Netanyahu should be happy that Hamas is now getting a bit more into the main stream. And he should re-engage the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on peace matters.

Peace talks, one should be reminded, are never held with your friends. They sit around the table people that have been at one another´s throats for quite some time. They take place between enemies. They are often very difficult to accept as the other side has been killing our own people. But there is no other way to sort out a conflict but by talking to our foes. In Middle East, in Northern Ireland, in South Sudan, all over the place.

Therefore the Palestinian move towards their own reconciliation is no acceptable excuse to stop the peace process. It can, however, be used as pretext to halt a move that in any case was not genuine. Is it the case?

Time to keep visiting Ukraine

US Vice-President Biden´s visit sends a very strong message. Now, it is time for the EU leaders to start visiting Ukraine as well. 

The Ukrainian Geneva deal must move on

The Geneva agreement on the de-escalation of the crisis in Ukraine has been declared “moribund” too quickly. It is a bit like a deal that is signed but no one really wants to implement. Consequently, as soon as each side leaves the conference room it starts saying the deal is not working.

That´s not acceptable. In situations like the one in Ukraine, the implementation of conflict mitigation measures is a complex task. But it needs to be tried. And the first responsibility for its implementation belongs to those who signed it.

One should not be ingenuous. Beyond the agreement there are other moves taking place and they do not necessarily reflect what has been declared by the parties. That´s why the role of independent observers is crucial. In this case, it is essential to fully deploy the OSCE observers without any further delay. This is the most immediate response to the current situation.

After that, it is critical to trace the affiliations of the armed men. Many of them, in the Eastern part of the country, seem to be too well coordinated and too professional to be considered just self-defence forces, or civilians in arms. There is more to that. It has to be cleared soonest as well. 

Gulf of Guinea

Piracy is becoming a serious threat to the freedom of navigation in the Gulf of Guinea, in West Africa. The Nigerian Navy has arrested, during the first quarter of 2014, 37 vessels that were engaged in illegal activities at sea, most of them related to piracy attempts.

Now, a major naval exercise has been launched in that Gulf, at the initiative of the Nigerian government. 10 Nigerian ships, plus a task force of 14 foreign war vessels are now engaged in a joint exercise. The neighbours of Nigeria are part of the exercise as navies from Europe and the US. For a total of 21 nations. This figure shows the importance of the menace and the level of cooperation that has been established to address it.

It is rewarding to see Nigeria taking the lead. This is a case of good news coming from that key African State. 

Sierra Leone has a great potential

This afternoon I was in touch with a Sierra Leonean friend who lives in Freetown. He is a very enterprising young man. Thus, I asked him about the economic prospects. A got a disappointed fellow on the other side of the line. Basically, his point was that the politics are fine, there is peace but there is very little outside investment. West Africa remains a forgotten land, even after several years of political stability. And now, with the news about Ebola, the epidemic that is killing people in the neighbouring Guinea, the will to go and look for investment opportunities in the region is even lower. It´s a pity. These are potentially very rich countries. But they need capital and know how to move up.  

Boko Haram

At the beginning of the week, the terrorist group Boko Haram attacked a boarding school in Northern Nigeria and kidnapped over 130 student girls. They came with trucks and other vehicles and could move around and leave with the victims, all of this in a State that is supposed to be heavy patrolled by the Nigerian Army. Since then, notwithstanding the fact that the Army launched a major operation, the terrorists and the girls have not been found. This is again raising a number of very fundamental questions about the capacity of the national authorities to address the challenges Boko Haram poses. Something is very wrong in the way the Nigerian leaders are responding to Boko Haram.

The neighbouring countries, particularly Chad, and the friends of Nigeria are getting very worried. The terrorists are just becoming too big a menace. 

Diplomacy as part of a wider package

The agreement reached today in Geneva regarding Ukraine´s crisis is encouraging. We will see if it is implemented. But the fact that the parties, including Russia and the US, could agree on a way forward reminds us that we should keep talking, when there is a conflict, we should not cut off the bridges. That does not mean we should only try diplomacy. Actually diplomacy works better when it is combined with a full range of other measures, such as smart sanctions, military posture and deterrence, unity within the allies, and a clear political position. 

A few basic questions

On Russia and the West, there are a number of questions on the table. Do we really understand what the key Russian motivations are? Do they matter, as far as the Western interests are concerned? Why? If the answer is yes, what are then the West´s political response options that are realistically available? Which one is the preferred one? What are the chances of success? And what are the risks? Who are our allies? 

These are the key questions we must keep in mind and respond to. Action taken that is not based on clear answers to these interrogations should be called improvisation.

And this is no time for skin reactions. What is at stake is important. If the West is caught unprepared and without a clear strategy, then we are in for more, in the foreseeable future. 

Keep Ukraine together

In our corner of the world, the Ukrainian situation is the key issue. A very complex issue, indeed. And complex matters do require patience to be sorted out. They also require a clear understanding of the magnitude of the problem. At this stage, the information available does not allow me to fully grasp if we are facing just a few groups of activists or are we confronted with a mass movement. The impression I get is that this is still the work of rather small but pretty well coordinated –by whom, one should also ask – groups. That´s why it makes sense to suggest, as Kiev did today, that autonomy referenda could be organised in the regions. That seems to be a way forward.

It is also important to rapidly allow the government in Kiev to show some early wins. The West, if they take this matter as seriously as they say, has to help the new authorities to get some very visible results soonest.

It is also important to add that one the consequences of a potential partition of the country would be to have the Western part that would result from such a partition to join NATO soonest. That possibility should be used to encourage Russia to keep Ukraine together, even if as a federation of autonomous regions. It is either national unity or partition with NATO expanding beyond the Polish border. 

Afghan elections

The news coming from Afghanistan is good. After a relatively successful electoral day, the counting of votes is progressing well and the presidential candidates are taking it with the required composure.

It is too early, at this stage, to find out if there will a second round or not. But the top competitors seem to be prepared to accept the verdict of the polls. Let´s hope that will be the case. That will send a strong message to everyone, inside and outside the country, a message that things are more stable than many would have thought. 

Eastern Ukraine

The de-escalation in Eastern Ukraine is very urgent. And it should start by looking at the most recent events with a clear sense of proportions. The occupations of public buildings in a few Eastern cities are the work of very small groups of individuals. They might get a lot of media attention and create serious concerns in many chancelleries, but the truth is that there is no massive support, at least up to now, for that kind of actions. For the time being this is a law and order issue and not a popular sea change. It should be dealt with by the Kiev authorities with measured force. That´s the call one has to make at this time of greater risks. 

Politics and peacekeeping

I am writing again about peacekeeping. And for sure, one of my conclusions is that the UN peacekeeping operations need to have a solid backing from the Security Council, when it comes to their role in political transitions and negotiation. It is not enough to have the military, police and civilian establishments solidly established in the mission. The head of the mission can only fulfill his or her role if the political mandate is clear, fully supported by the Council and by other key stakeholders such as the countries in the region. In a case of national crisis, the political muscle is critical. It has to be there, at the centre of the mission, without ambiguity.

Anothe lame duck mission in the making

The same day I had a discussion about the frustratingly slow and very incomplete deployment of the UN peacekeeping operation in Mali (MINUSMA), the Security Council has approved the fielding of a very large mission to the Central African Republic. To be on the safe side, in terms of readiness to deploy, the Council decided that the effective starting date for this new operation will be September 15. But everyone knows that there is very little spare capacity really available for these very large missions. The new one will be struggling for military, police and civilian staff as MINUSMA is doing.

Actually, it is time to think very differently about the peacekeeping operations. We cannot just base ourselves on the old model of extensive military presence for an extremely large duration of time. Things need to be thought in more dynamic terms, shorter and more specialised missions, with a very firm political mandate. 

Kerry and Netanyahu

The Israeli government has no love lost for John Kerry. Benjamin Netanyahu and his inner circle are deeply irritated by Kerry´s continued efforts to bring peace to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. They let that displeasure be known through informal channels. When they meet the US Secretary of State they seem to be willing to play the diplomatic game. But they are not. And that´s why they have cancelled the release of the last batch of Palestinian prisoners that should have found their freedom days ago. More. They have decided to build extra settlements -700 new homes – in occupied land in the East Jerusalem area.

Israel top leaders believe they can only count on their own means to protect their country. They see the emergence of a Palestinian State as a serious threat to their own security. They prefer the current status quo. But the present arrangement has no real future. It is a major source of conflict a very serious violation of basic principles of international law. Sooner or later, both sides will have to find a more accommodating solution. The ball, however, is more on the Israeli camp than on the other side. This is a debate the Israelis should have among themselves. 

Rwanda and the Central African Republic

On this anniversary day, twenty years after the beginning of genocide in Rwanda, as we remember those terrible events and the hundreds of thousands of victims, we seem to forget that we have a similar situation in the Central African Republic. It is true the numbers are not as high, but the hatred between communities and the killing of innocents, of one´s neighbours, just because they look a bit different or dress in a way that shows their religious beliefs, are very similar to what happened in Rwanda.  And once again, we prefer to remember the past and ignore the deep challenges of the present.

Afghan elections: lets keep them clean

We should look at today´s presidential elections from a positive perspective. The news is good indeed. The participation rate, estimated at 58%, is very significant in a country that is still confronted with major security threats. It was encouraging to see long lines of men and women waiting their turn to vote. It is true that the logistics were not exemplary. In many places they could even be said to be messy. But flaws were corrected throughout the day and people could eventually vote.

Among the eight candidates, the two leading hopefuls, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, are very reasonable people. Any of them could be a good leader for the country.

The point is to keep the credibility of the elections. The last ones, in 2009, were too fraudulent. Hamid Karzai was elected then in a manner that made his tenure very fragile and compromised his capacity to fully exercise the democratic authority that was key for a rapid transition to a more legitimate government. He spent his last mandate just trying to balance the interests of very powerful allies, without having the legitimacy to go beyond that.

Karzai will however be reminded as the leader that carried the nation through many difficult years, close to thirteen. The last deed everyone expects from him is very simple: keep the current electoral process clean, do not interfere. His candidate –apparently it is Zalmai Rassoul – might not make it to the second round. But Karzai should make it to the good books of the Afghan history. 

Syria

Syria´s crisis has now disappeared from the screens. It has joined the dramatic roll that lists all the long-lasting tragedies that the world can´t resolve and therefore got accustomed to. We are very good at accepting “as normal” situations that are well beyond what should be morally accepted. The point here is to say no to that aptitude. And bring Syria back to the forefront of the international agenda. Lest we forget, as they say. 

European peace matters

It would be a mistake to underestimate the political influence of those in the West that think that it is time to teach the big neighbour a lesson. At the end of the Cold War, many people lost centre stage as their specialised skills were no longer in demand. They seem to be back now and with a strong sense of opportunity. They want to seize the occasion. And things can then go pretty far. More than ever, one should be aware of the different interests at play, on every side. And fight for common sense to be again the guiding principle. Leadership here means to be brave enough to contain a crisis that can become out of control. 

EU and the Ebola fever

On the same day leaders of the EU and Africa were meeting in Brussels, the people of Guinea, in West Africa, continued to dread the Ebola fever that has now killed close to a hundred people and is still out of control. The government in Conakry has not enough capacity to stop this epidemic. The health services, with the help of some international NGOs, are just overwhelmed. And the risks of contagion across the border into Sierra Leone and Liberia are very real.

But there has been no voice in the leading circles of Europe to raise the issue and call for an urgent, large scale and highly specialised assistance to be sent to Guinea and the neighbours, to help them to effectively respond to a disease that kills close to 95 people on every 100 that can infected. 

NATO´s new position needs to be taken seriously

NATO´s foreign ministers met today on Ukraine, Russia and the security along the Eastern borders of the Alliance. The decisions taken need to be taken with great attention. They combine a mixture of political measures with military preparedness and operations. They represent, in many ways, a turning point, after trying for two decades to build a constructive partnership with Russia.

We should not conclude that the post-Cold War period is now defunct. However, we should not underestimate the degree of potential threat the ministers perceive as coming from the East. To manage to reach a unanimous position on this matter says plenty of unsaid things about the seriousness of the situation. The intention had been, up to now, to de-escalate. Today´s conclusions do escalate the tension. They certainly have powerful reasons to believe that this is the right course of action at this stage.