International law and the fight against terrorism

When discussing terrorism, one should keep in mind a number of issues. One of them is the concept of self-defence. Basically the point is about the lawful use of force by States against an individual or groups of individuals that are recognised as representing, planning or preparing to carry out a serious armed threat. Linked to the concept are the notions of gravity, imminence, and pre-emptive action as well as the measured use of force.

The UN has spent quite a bit of its time looking at these matters. There are two Security Council Resolutions that provide most of the legal basis for the response by States to terrorism. One, UN Security Council Resolution 1368 (2001) was approved in the aftermath of the 9/11 acts. The other – UNSC Resolution 1373 (2004) – authorises States “to take steps to prevent the commission of terrorist acts”.

As the discussion goes on and taking into consideration new developments, such as the drone strikes, it would be appropriate to review these resolutions and maybe adopt a more comprehensive one. The call for legal basis for action should be taken back to the UN Security Council. 

UN General Assembly

It was a busy day at the UN General Assembly. The speeches by key world leaders and the many side meetings have shown that the United Nations remains, notwithstanding all the constraints it faces, the key political forum for dialogue and cooperation. There is no other institution that can match the UN.

More specifically, the emphasis on development matters and on peace operations remains strong. They are important pillars of the UN´s work. But they should not let us forget the key relevance of human rights and women´s empowerment. 

Obama and Xi

Excellent speech by President Obama on the occasion of the Chinese President´s visit to the White House. He said the right things about cyber security, human rights, peace and cooperation in Asia and the economic ties between the two countries.

I am sure that President Xi Jinping, who is an astute and experienced player, will reflect about what Obama has said. And his first take will be about respect. Xi might not have liked what he heard but he will recognise that the current US President is a man of courage. And my experience tells me that a genuine leader appreciates courage in politics. It is actually a rare commodity, as many prefer an opportunistic approach.

Not Obama. 

Russia is moving to Syria

There is a debate going on about Russia´s intentions in Syria. The reinforcement of their airbase in the port city of Latakia goes far beyond force protection and self-defence considerations. It is a big move. It looks like creating a big logistics base for a deeper mission in Syria.

The next few days should allow us to have a better understanding of the Russian plans in that country. They should also give us a hint of Moscow´s plans regarding their presence in the region. 

Crazy Volkswagen leaders

The Volkswagen fraudulent approach to diesel-related emissions is most shocking. How could such a major corporation, one of the largest and most solid in the world, believe that cheating would go unnoticed and would bring them additional market share?

This is another eye-opener in today´s world. A very damaging one for that matter. The credibility of this company and all the related makes – VW, Seat, Porsche, Audi – is seriously affected. They will probably survive the crisis but with significant losses in terms of future sales and prestige. However, the greatest damage will be inflicted in all of us that have gradually lost confidence in traditional politics, then on banking, afterwards on promises of international solidarity, and now on car manufacturers.

This is another very heavy blow on trust and values. It is also a deep stain on Germany´s industrial and business elites.

It is at the same time, however, a reminder that we live in open societies. Openness leads to exposure and that´s the most effective way of dealing with the dishonesty of the powerful people, including those who believe, because they earn scandalous salaries and benefits, that they are well above the common mortals we are. 

The Pope´s approach

Pope Francis is in Cuba. And his visit shows that principles, diplomacy and attitude can immensely contribute to progressive change. It reminds us that today´s levers of power have a lot to do with values and approaches and much less to do with sanctions and military means. Sanctions and guns have some weight, no doubt about that. But their impact remains limited. They have to be part and parcel of a much larger approach. They have their moment. And then there is a time when they are no longer the best way forward.

That´s what is happening today in Cuba.

And we are fortunate that President Obama fully understands the change that is taking place. 

Burkina Faso must return to the democratic path

Burkina Faso is one of the better educated countries in West Africa. And its population is young and dynamic. There is in addition a good sense of national identity and cohesiveness. It is therefore unacceptable to see the Presidential Guard take over the executive power, stop the transition to democratic rule and try to bring back the former President, Blaise Compaoré. The coup d´état, carried out a couple of days ago, must be condemned firmly by all the friends of such an interesting and promising country. It would be a serious disservice to Africa if France and others in the EU would be seen as hesitating in their condemnation of the coup. 

Tell your story

In today´s developed and democratic societies, every political move, every key institution, every public action boils down to perception. More than the facts and the messages the political and social actors put across, what counts in the end is the way they are perceived and understood by the citizen. That´s why today´s wars are not just about fire power. Guns and bullets are still a deterrent, but not good enough. Wars, as well as any political fight, are gained and lost in the narrative that is communicated to people. 

About political action

In politics, style matters. Today´s politics call for people that look serious, modest and concerned with real problems as they are faced by the people. Rhetoric is now about sounding sincere and clear, nothing else. 

The migrations seen from Riga

As it has been the case in the last five years, I am spending a good part of September in Riga. It´s not about tourism, even if Riga is a great place to visit. In the recent years, the conversations would be about the relations with the big neighbour to the East. There are still many strong feelings about the matter. This year is different. The key topic in most of the discussions is related to the immigration of people from outside the EU and the impact of such large movements on the European project. There is fear, here in a country that believes deeply in its relationship with the rest of the EU, fear that the mass arrivals might put too much strain on the Schengen approach and on the free movement of the Europeans themselves. 

The EU chaos

It´s hard to believe the EU is not able to have a common approach to a matter as serious as the mass arrival of refugees and other migrants. More disturbingly though is to observe that some governments have lost control of the situation. It will take ages to regain the lost authority. In the meantime, the impact of this uncontrolled movements needs to be closely monitored and the appropriate mitigation measures must be implemented. As it is also necessary rebuild the confidence between the leaders of the different member states and ensure that there is no populist gain made out of this most incredible disarray. 

UK Labour Party got an interesting Leader

It´s official, Jeremy Corbyn is the new Leader of the UK´s Labour Party. He comes from outside the party´s mainstream. His ideas are much closer to the radical Left than to those Labour has advocated since the late 90s, when Blair came to power. Corbyn´s election calls therefore for a serious reflection about politics in our type of societies.

Many people said they have voted for him because they understand what he is saying. They understand he is not a Conservative under the disguise of Labour. What he talks about is more than just a nuance of Conservative´s positions. That makes him clear and gives him the support of all those who believe the UK has become more unequal and less friendly to the weak. The lesson here is simple: if you want to be seen as an alternative be clear about your positions, make them be seen as clearly distinct from those of your opponents.

He has also attracted the backing of many younger voters. He might be wrong in his prescriptions and policy options but he grounds them on values and generosity. And that´s what the young people want to hear. Values are back in the public opinion and politicians need to take that into account. There is less room today for opportunism and cynicism.

He might never become a prime minister. I do not see the majority of the British voting for him. He might even be bad news for Europe as I do not see him engaging in the Yes campaign at the time of the British referendum on the EU.

But he will make politics in the UK a bit more popular and interesting for a good while. David Cameron can expect a number of good fights in Parliament.

11 September

A day to remember all of those who have been victims of terrorist actions. And to reaffirm that one of the most pressing priorities of today, for every government that believes in democracy and tolerance, is to neutralise the leadership and the key elements of the so-called Islamic State. 

Syria policy review

The refugee influx is re-opening the debate about the EU´s role in Syria and in the region. And my advice is that the reflection should look into every option. But it should, above all, be honest about what´s to be achieved and frank when reviewing the means and ways of achieving such objectives. It cannot be just more dust in the air to gain the impression that we are doing something out there. The challenges are too serious for superficiality and make believe.

Refugees: it´s time to regain the political initiative

In politics it´s a very costly mistake to be perceived as having lost control of a serious situation. This is particularly true in the developed countries. They have the resources, the rules and the institutions to respond to major challenges. Then, when the response seems chaotic and directionless, the loss of credibility is enormous. The institutional approaches are then replaced by the reactions on the streets and the emotions on the small TV screens. And all that ends up by generating major problems that societies will have to confront sooner or later.

Therefore, when control is lost the most urgent action that is required is to regain the initiative. 

Refugees and Migrants: Calling for a comprehensive view

The mass movement into the EU is a very complex matter. It calls for a comprehensive analysis and a multi-faceted response. The humanitarian assistance is one of the dimensions. In terms of urgency, it is certainly the priority. But the issue needs to be viewed from other perspectives as well. And that has to be done with great serenity and a strong sense of responsibility, both towards those coming in and those who belong here.  

A new approach to politics

The positive response many Europeans are giving to the mass influx of would-be refugees might have many ways of being understood. For me, it underlines an emerging widespread aspiration to see human values guiding political decisions. People are telling their leaders that basic principles of humanity matter above everything else when the crisis is too big and the suffering too high.

In many ways politics in our part of the world lost touch with the lives of the poorest and weakest segments of society. We got used to believe that economic growth, combined with a good degree of political expediency and a fair dose of opportunism, would give everyone a chance to make a living. 

In addition, we have accepted globalization on the material fronts but not on matters that might compromise our standards of living. We keep asking every nation to open their borders as we try to keep our own frontiers well protected. And we don´t mind to give some help to those in need as long as that happens far away from our doorsteps.

Now, here in Europe, that way of looking at the world might be about to be challenged. Ideology is getting back into politics. And the ideas that are about to shape our future political views are above all about being more reasonable and more open to others. It´s a new kind of responsive politics.

Call for a new policy approach on Syria

In view of the recent events, it should be clear that the time has arrived for a new policy on Syria.

The humanitarian crisis must be addressed. And the terrorists that call themselves the Islamic State have to be neutralised. These are the two overriding priorities. Both of them require the Western countries and the neighbouring countries in the region to adopt a new approach.

One of the key steps should therefore be to re-engage with Bashar al-Assad. Leaders need to recognise the need for such a move. Assad has been a considerable part of problem, it is true. But he is going nowhere, we reached a standstill. He will stay in charge of part of the country and in command of a share of its ruins. He represents an important albeit small segment of the Syrian population. And he knows that the UN Security Council will never agree on his condemnation.

He should therefore be part of the solution. To continue to consider his removal from power a critical objective is the wrong option.

 We cannot ignore the plight of the displaced and the refugees. As we cannot forget that the IS fanatics are a major threat to the region and to us as well.  All efforts should focus on both issues.

EU: the foundations of the common building are shaking

The current events in the EU are like a major quake. Their impact on the common European project will radically change a number of things. It´s also a long term shock wave.

My advice today is that people who care should start a serious debate about the changes that are in the making. It´s time to think beyond the daily dramas and have a good understanding of the key trends.

We need to hear from minds that can read the future. 

Chinese politics of intimidation

The aim of the huge military parade the government of China will put on display tomorrow in Beijing, as they celebrate the 70^th anniversary of Victory Day against the Japanese, is obviously related to a policy of intimidation. 

But the ones the Chinese authorities try to intimidate are not based in Japan, not even in the neighbouring countries. To the neighbouring countries, Beijing´s message is clear: our military capabilities are growing by the day and modernising by the hour. It´s an arms race and the Chinese want it to be clear that they have the means and the knowledge to win the run.

Regarding the intimidation, the target is the Chinese people itself. Their government wants them to understand that the armed forces are a powerful instrument of power. It was used in 1989, at Tiananmen Square. And can be used again, now in a much more efficient manner. That´s the message. 

Civil obedience remains the key issue in such a vast country. The leaders are today, as their predecessors were, deeply afraid of any possible loss of political control.

End of summer break

I am back from my summer break. Back from 15 days in a village in Southern Portugal. Two weeks spent among elder people as old folks make now most of the residents in rural areas. And a period to learn again the virtues of simplicity, frugality and the ability to make do with whatever is available