Mozambique needs help

In Mozambique, the security and political environment have deteriorated fast during the last four of so weeks.

The political stress between Renamo, the former guerrilla group that became the key opposition party after the peace agreement of the early 90s, and the government led by Frelimo has flared up. There has been some armed violence between the two, albeit very localised and contained. But the tension remains unresolved. It can easily escalate and lead to deep conflict.

In the main urban centres there has been a series of criminal kidnappings for ransom. In one the recent cases, in Beira, the little boy that had been taken was murdered by the bandits. These actions are creating a lot of fear. They add to other types of crimes that are very common in the cities, such as burglaries and armed robberies. The Police seems unable to cope.

On the top of it all, there have been serious accusations of corruption against the close relatives of the President and other political figures. The President himself has a very tarnished image. He has vast business interests. Many believe that his control of business and wealth is related to abuse of power and traffic of influence.

It is sad to see the country moving into crisis. This has been a good example of post-conflict recovery. And also of economic growth. It cannot become now a bad example of bad leadership.

And the external friends of Mozambique need to wake up. Their help can make a difference. 

On leadership again and always

Leadership requires a firm voice. To be loud is not the point. It only adds noise. It is to be perceived as clear and brave that matters.  

Cameron and the EU

During last week´s EU summit in Brussels, the UK Prime Minister showed a more positive approach towards the European institutions, particularly the EU Commission. For those who have seen his past attitudes, he was a different man. The speculation regarding his change of mind is wild and many reasons have been mentioned in the last couple of days. I have no sure answer. But I suspect he has been listening to the key business representatives in London and throughout the UK. For them, a referendum on Europe, as promised by David Cameron, would be a serious mistake. It would give too much space to the inward, nationalistic politicians and could result in a No vote. The big British companies do not want that to happen. 

Code of conduct for intelligence agencies

The on-going row over the US espionage practices should become an opportunity to discuss intelligence cooperation between the two sides of the Atlantic. It should also be used by the Europeans to better define the potential threats to their national and economic security and take the appropriate protective measures.

As I say it, I also recognise that intelligence remains one of the key features of a country´s sovereignty. But this should not prevent the EU countries from integrating better those dimensions of the services that have to do with responding to common threats. And, at the same time, they should protect themselves from intrusion, including when that spying comes from a friendly ally.

It is also time to have a code of conduct and a list of best practices that would guide information collection in a democratic environment. And get national parliaments to appoint independent ethics commissions that would be charged with the overseeing of intelligence activities in their respective countries. These commissions would then be guided by the above-mentioned code of conduct. 

Security obsessions

The US say, through the National Security Agency (NSA) that President Obama was not aware that Angela Merkel’s telephone had been “monitored” by American spies. Nobody would believe it, of course. But this is the right answer to be given, at this stage. It offers everyone a way out.

And tomorrow public opinion will have moved on to other subjects. Merkel and Obama will carry on. They will reaffirm they are allies. Some token gestures will be made. They have little choice but to be seen pulling in the same direction.

And NSA, on its own, will continue its job as well. And, as usual, in a very obsessive way. There might be an enemy behind the hundreds of millions of calls and mails they catch every day.

Azerbaijan

I have walked every street of old Baku in Azerbaijan and I like it. This is a city of Shia culture, like in Iran, but so different from Iran. Baku is a very Westernised place. It is very culturally open and diversified, with excellent ballet and opera performances on show. It might not be the best example of transparent governance. But it is a good case study for those who want to find out how politics can change the mind sets of the population.   

Congested roads and congested minds

As it is often the case, the motorway between Antwerp and Brussels was clogged this afternoon around 4:00 pm. You just need two things to drive at that time of the day between the two cities: a lot of patience and plenty of spare time. 

The economic and human costs of the congested road are huge. And there is little that can be done to alleviate the pressure. The train option is there, it´s true. But entrepreneurs are used to have the trucks coming to their gates and taking the goods straight into the clients´ door step. And people are too dependent on their personal vehicle that they prefer to waste time sitting on it than to make use of public transportation.

But this situation is untenable. Sooner or later it will have to change. And we should start by changing our minds first. And fast. 

Naïve Merkel

Again, as I listen to Angela Merkel and her reactions to the spying the US practices all over the world, I get a bit nervous. How could she be so naïve and believe the US would not seek to spy on her? This is a matter of great concern if we take into account that her naïveté is combined with an immense political power. Easy to fool leaders are in charge and one can only feel very uncomfortable that is the case. If she cannot see the threats coming from the friends, how can she deal with the danger coming from the enemies? 

Mali security sector

The EU Training Mission in Mali is moving in the right direction. The European instructors are now training the third Malian battalion and motivation is high.

As that happens, it is quite clear that the resources available in the donors´ Trust Fund for Peace and Security in Mali are not sufficient. USD 7 million is little money for the reorganisation of the national armed forces. And the outstanding pledges, for the next steps, are even smaller. It is necessary to call the attention of the international partners to the importance of this matter. The results of the EU training will be lost very quickly if financial resources are not made available to complement them.

The second point here is that Mali needs a mirror training programme for the national police and the gendarmerie. These two institutions are very weak. They have to be fully revamped. That requires trainers from outside and also resources. Both are missing at this stage. 

The need for a cultural change in Mali

I gave a public lecture yesterday in Brussels about the situation in Mali. One of the key issues under discussion was the reconciliation among Malians. A very difficult issue, I knew, as the events of 2012 and the early part of 2013 in the Northern Regions had a major negative impact on trust. Each ethnic group withdrew inside its own identity and became very suspicious of every other ethnicity.

It is an issue that is not moving fast enough, at a time when many other parts of the transition process are gaining momentum. And yesterday, during the discussions that followed my presentation, I came to the conclusion that many Malians are not really ready to reconcile. They tend to look at the Tuareg and other nomadic people from the North of Mali with a certain degree of contempt. And the nomads return the favour and see the black Malians as people that are not really interested in sharing power.

I got the impression that the leadership needs to be talked to into a cultural revolution. They have to change their views. The external partners should help them to do so. This is a priority task. 

Fuels for development In Africa

My new research paper of energy and sustainable development in Africa is available at :

http://www.fuelfreedom.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Fuel-Africa_FINAL.pdf

This study, done in collaboration with Dr Kate McGuinness, was discussed in late September in New York at a breakfast organised as part of the annual meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative.

The radical right is on the offensive

Globalisation and international migrations tend to generate the impression, in the EU public opinion, that that the world out there has become a threat to our standard of living, our jobs, culture and values.  Protectionist ideas are easily gaining ground and can become the extremist banner behind which people could rally. In many ways, both ends of extremist political spectrum can make use of these fears. But it is above all an easy ride for the radical right. They are the ones that can gain more from the exploitation of such feelings. And that explains in no small measure the advances of the right wingers in many parts of the European Continent. And we can expect more of it as well.

NUPI

I spent a good deal of the day at NUPI, the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. And as usual, I was very impressed by their applied research in the area of peace and security. They are certainly a reference institution when it comes to assessing peacekeeping operations as well as proposing new approaches to field deployments. They have done pioneer work on the issue of civilian capacities and are pretty substantively engaged in looking at the Police dimension in peacekeeping. Police has been the poor link in the peacekeeping field missions. 

Russia and the West have to cooperate.

The political and security relations between the West and Russia are currently in deep water.  There is renewed suspicion on both sides. It is critical to understand the reasons and address the problem. Europe cannot entertain a new level of tension with her neighbour to the East. It is not in our interest. Can´t we understand this?

On the other side, Russia should get the point that a confrontation with the West would be to her disadvantage. Technologically the Russians are behind. They would be a tough target but in the end they would be vulnerable.  Can´t they understand this point?

Forget the reform of the UN Security Council

The reform of the UN Security Council has been on the table for the last 20 years. And there is been no progress. The Permanent 5 (P5) are the ones blocking the change that should take place. They have the veto power and believe that their standing in the world is above every other nation. How can that be? How can France or the UK believe they yield more power than India or Brazil? 

It is now quite obvious that the reform will not happen in the foreseeable future. As an alternative, it is important to reinforce the authority and the legitimacy of other international groupings of nations, such as the African Union, the EU or the Arab League. Their capabilities to deal with matters of peace and security, as well as with economic coordination and development should be seriously enhanced. 

Crisis response: Moving beyond strategic games, ineffectiveness and indifference

 It is time to discuss the new trends in the international community´s response to major peace and security challenges. As globalisation advances, violent conflicts in a far flung corner of the world can easily gain a wider dimension and have a regional or even a larger impact. They also tend to have dramatic humanitarian consequences, hand in hand with extremely serious human rights violations.

Is the international machinery ready to address such threats in an urgent and comprehensive manner? What to do if the UN Security Council is unwilling to agree on an appropriate response? How to address the issues of urgency and comprehensiveness? Is development assistance, as practiced during the last decades, geared towards strengthening human security and reinforcing peace building? How is public opinion in the developed world being influenced when it comes to reacting to crisis in distant lands? 

Norway and the UN

Today´s decision on this year´s Nobel Peace Prize shows again how attached the Norwegians are to the UN and the organizations that make the UN System.

I have worked with many developed states. And I have always noticed how much the Norwegians appreciated the work of the UN.  The leaders and the public opinion in Norway believe in the UN and would feel safer in a world where the very big countries would accept a larger role for the international organizations.

You might believe there is some naiveté in the Norwegian attitude towards the UN. It might be somehow true. But dreams are important. And sometimes they become real. 

The absence of an immigration policy

One could again notice in the recent days that the EU has no common policy on immigration. The states still look at the issue as a national matter and not as a common challenge. The resources made available to FRONTEX, the agency charged with the EU border policing are clearly insufficient. Moreover, the leaders do not take a comprehensive approach and deal with the issue with one tool only - border control - when it is clear that other measures are necessary. Without a combination of approaches, combining policing with diplomacy, development assistance, strategic communications, and an integration policy, we will continue to see the misery boats crossing the Mediterranean in search of the next tragedy. 

New threats call for new responses

The US Navy Seals operations over the week end in Libya and Somalia, to capture well known terrorist leaders raise a number of questions, in terms of international law. But above all, they beg the question about how current and adjusted to today's world is the fight against international terrorism. This is a debate that has yet to take place: how to respond to multinational terrorist groups.

They represent a new threat to international peace and security. They cannot be fought with conventional means. And they cannot be convinced that they will be safe in weak states or in chaotic societies. They have to understand that global terrorism calls for a global response.

And that was certainly the key message the US has sent this week end across many parts of Africa and elsewhere. The US might have gone beyond the accepted norms. But we need to consider that the old ways of addressing new challenges need to be thought through. With a new approach to national sovereignty and the legitimate use of force. 

EU and India: a partnership that needs to be explored

The political and economic partnership between the EU and India deserves greater attention. The European leaders seem blind to the potential of such an alliance and how much it would weight on China.  China’s global interests would then be matched by a strong EU-India alliance.

I keep repeating that our leaders need to be much more strategic in the relations with India. The EU has a good representative in Delhi, that‘s not the problem.  The issue resides in the fact that our leaders are not investing enough in building a strong relationship with India. They are too concerned with trying to come to terms with China and its commercial and industrial expansion. They do not see the opportunities. 

Hollande's circuit breaker

President François Hollande of France should sack the Prime Minister and implement a Cabinet reshuffle to show that he is in control and not afraid of taking decisions. The Cabinet is more divided than ever. Its public contradictions have a damaging impact on the President’s image. In these cases, the Prime Minister should be like the fuse that blows when the current is excessive.  I am afraid however that Hollande might not have the necessary guts to act.   

Central Africa

The Central African Republic (CAR) is now a failed state.

The capital city, Bangui, is controlled by armed groups of uncertain origin. They are most likely dominated by warlords from Southern Darfur and Eastern Chad. They have little to do with CAR’s main ethnic groups but they are allied to Central Africans from the North-Eastern border areas. These are Muslims in a country that is largely Christian.

Besides the capital, there are other armed groups and several “self-defence” committees. But there is no central authority, no law and order, no administration and no modern economy. It is just chaos and extreme hardship.

The situation can easily spill over into some of neighbouring countries. They are also very fragile. They could become the next prey of the roaming armed men.  

The African Union has pledged to send a peacekeeping force to the country. It will be difficult for the AU to be able to mobilise the force and the resources required. It will also be a very delicate mission because of the religious divide that is now taking place, for the first time in the history of CAR.

The international community should understand that the country needs, urgently, not at the pace the AU can mobilise itself, a very robust international force, with full executive powers.

It is the survival of CAR’s population that is, first and foremost, at stake. But not only. It is an entire region. A region that is already the least stable of Africa. 

Global America

President Obama’s address, this afternoon, about the health coverage initiative and the shutdown of government services, will certainly have an important impact on American public opinion. The finger pointing at the Republicans was very effective. I think it is the right approach. The pressure on the Republican Party should convince its leaders that it is in their electoral interest to find a way out of the current crisis. The sooner they do it the better as the continued shutdown will end up by having a major impact on the economy both in the US and elsewhere. Today’s world is too interconnected for us, Europeans, to say this is a mere American issue. It is not. We will end up by being concerned as well.