Our friends the spies from the other side of the table...

I do not understand why some EU leaders, in the Parliament and the Commission, are so surprised by the news that the Americans have been spying on them. You have to be very naïve or have no experience of international affairs to believe that “friendly nations” are just that, friends…Friends have interests and they try to protect them. That means, among other things, that they want to know, well in advance, what you are cooking, to be able to reach the dinner table prepared for event…

The US has a special interest in EU affairs. They are particularly interested in trade intelligence, but also on the European positions regarding key international matters, such as Iran, Israel, Russia, Security Council resolutions and so on. Furthermore, they hope to get some additional information about other players by plugging in to the intelligence systems of the European nations.  

They have also a special sharing system with like-minded nations such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand and… the UK. Therefore, the British are very much aware of the US is doing regarding the gathering of clandestine information in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, or elsewhere. This also raises a very simple issue: many of the things that are said within the EU are certainly shared by London with their Washington mates. So what? Just make your position clear and transparent and be also sure that when you negotiate with the US you are negotiating with a very well informed – and therefore prepared – interlocutor.

In France the political establishment is too heavy

After some in-depth discussions in France, just a word to summarize so many opinions: concern. Indeed, France is not going in the right direction and her people are, in so many ways, very disappointed with the current situation and the lack of true reform of the state institutions. Or, the state takes a lot of resources and many of its institutions are just simple bureaucracy and jobs for the political animals that people the republic. 

French countryside and the taxes on historical houses

The countryside between Tours and Poitiers has some of most interesting castles and manors we find in France. Many of them have been preserved through generations and kept some kind of historical interest, in addition to the beauty of the architecture and gracefully tailored landscape.

As we travel now through the region we can see that quite a number of them have now been put on the market. The rural history is on sale.

I have wondered why. And I came to realise the families are afraid of the new taxes to come. They are also very heavily punished by the existing property taxes, including the tax on wealth. So, they play safe and try to sell the most expensive properties as soon as possible.

But there are very few buyers. I am told that some of the very few are from China…

Soon or later all this will have an impact of historical properties. 

France and the serial blunder

The French have found a new punching bag: it is called Barroso. They are all out against him. They have looked at old closets and found a number of blunders he is credited with. This is a way of making sure people understand that the man is serial disaster.

It is much easier when the blame can be placed elsewhere. Incompetent people just love that! And when the blame is put on a foreigner it’s even better!

Poor France, some would say!

Brazil is not listening to Dilma Rousseff

I talked to friends in Brazil to discuss the aftermath of President Dilma Rousseff’s address to the country. I had found her speech wise and conciliatory and wanted to know my friends’ opinion about it. And also get a bit of the mood these days.

Apparently, the speech has not been listened to. Many urban people seem too eager to continue the street rallies and the social network campaigns. They have little hope that the current leadership will be strong enough to change the political system. And that is the kind of change they aspire for.  A good number believe that it is time to bring to power a different type of politicians. And many mention the name of the Supreme Court President, Justice Joaquim Barbosa. He is certainly an example people like to refer to.

And a name to keep watching. 

The losing side

The true message that came out of today’s Friends of Syria meeting is that the many rebellions are losing the war. That’s the actual trend on the ground. New weapons for a divided, weakened opposition are just a way of effectively playing on Assad’s hand. He will have a justification to continue the military option, which has given him a new breath of life, and an excuse to postpone any negotiated solution. In the end, the Syrian population will be the real loser. 

A new ball game in town

The social media networks have become major tools when it comes to rallying people and bringing them to the streets. Twitter, Facebook, Whats App, blogs, and many others –the list is very vast –, have been used in the Arab Spring revolutions, in Turkey, and now in Brazil, to disseminate political messages and call for demonstrations.  All of them are free, easy to access, and very common among the young and the urban folks. These two categories of people are, by far, the main source of opposition to any government in the world. In addition, social media tools work better with very short messages, very direct and therefore very easy to apprehend and internalize. 

Brazil's class politics

Recently I spent about three weeks in Brazil. And I wrote, in the Portuguese weekly magazine Visao, where I am their international affairs columnist, that I found a better country than fifteen years ago. Indeed, Brazil is a much safer place, with a striving economy and a growing international agenda. But I also said that the cost of living is exceptionally high, the currency overvalued –which benefits the urban rich that love to travel abroad –and the police too close to the interests of the rich and powerful.

Since then, the country has been headline news. The riots in many urban centres reveal the malaise that many Brazilians experience. This malaise is a composite feeling that is fed by several streams: corruption, low politics, high cost of living, poorly performing public services and wide social disparities. In addition, life in the big cities can be extenuating just because of the time it takes to move from home to work and vice-versa.

The demonstrations also show that the urban middle class is deeply against the ruling party, Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT, President Dilma’s party. They see this party as something close to the populism prevailing in other parts of South America, a party that is too keen in taxing the better-off in order to give subsidies to the insouciant masses. For them this is not social justice, it is lefty power politics. 

Eastern Europe's commerce

During my recent road trips in the Benelux, I have seen a very visible increase of Baltic, mainly from Latvia, and other Eastern European trucks, ferrying all kinds of goods left and right. This is certainly good news. The greater the economic inter-dependency the better it is for Europe.  

The "reactionary French"

The comments made by the EU Commission President about the “reactionary” French protectionism” are very brave but extremely undiplomatic. Barroso in his interview to the International Herald Tribune said: “Some say they belong to the left, but in fact they are culturally extremely reactionary”. This is a very direct reference to the French President and his position that the trade agreement discussions between the EU and the US should not include “cultural goods”.  France wants to protect its film and music industries from the American might.

Why did Barroso, who is generally very prudent, go that far? He might know something about his future as head of the Commission that we do not know yet. 

G8 and GZero

On the eve of this year’s G8 meeting, Syria remains the key issue. It is also a complex and divisive matter, not just because of the different approaches Russia and the West are following but also on the question of arms for the opposition. The meeting will come and go and unfortunately we will see no progress, no agreement on a political roadmap for this deeply tragic crisis. It is indeed easier to talk about weapons than to device a peace process. 

Iran's presidential elections

The news coming from Iran is good. Hassan Rouhani’s presidential victory sends a very strong signal that the people of Iran want political change, including a better relationship with the West. He will have now to navigate the complex relations that define the power landscape of the country to be able to consolidate his position without raising too much resistance from the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the hardliners that sustain the regime.

The West has also to show political wisdom and send a signal that they are ready to engage with the new leader. For starters, they should congratulate him on his election, even if the electoral process had some flaws. It helps to say congratulations, even if as just a diplomatic move. 

Obama's red line on Syria

The US Administration has now found evidence that the Syrian army made use – “limited use” – of chemical weapons.

This is, for the Americans, the crossing of a red line. Washington has therefore decided to provide military assistance to the rebels' Supreme Military Council (SMC) and Syrian Opposition Coalition.

It is yet unclear what that type of assistance the new development entails. Things will become much clearer in the next days. What is clear today is that the rebellions are under serious pressure from the Assad troops. Only massive and urgent aid from the outside world might be able to save them. Or, I do not thing that President Obama is thinking of anything that might be massive and urgent. In that case, any low-grade military assistance at this stage will not change the current trend on the ground. 

Weak EU leadership

It is becoming fashionable in some of the European leading circles to blame the IMF for the failure of some financial adjustment programmes such as the Greek or the Portuguese. It is as if the EU Commission and the European Central Bank, the two other members of the Troika that has negotiated such programmes on behalf of the international creditors, had just been compelled to go along with the IMF.

Nothing is less true. In many ways, it has been the EU Commission that had shown up to recently the most dogmatic approach to programme design and its implementation. They have been the ones pushing some very single-minded ideas such as labour cost reductions and a short-term approach to fiscal corrections. Now, having realised that the public opinion is turning in large numbers against these measures, they backtrack and blame the weaker member of the group.

This shows again that the European leadership feels corralled against the wall and has no guts to fight back for their position.  

EU needs to change coaches

A man that knows the EU well told me this evening that the high rates of unemployment are turning people against the European project. The first line of attack is against the Euro currency, he added. More and more people are looking at the common currency as an impediment for “their” nation’s recovery.  He also told me that there is serious concern in the leading circles of the EU as they see public opinion turning gradually against the Euro in a number of countries.

I told him if the common project were a football team the solution would be very clear: let’s fire the coach and get a new one. 

Mandela, an exemplary leader

Our thoughts today are with Nelson Mandela. We owe him much, as an exemplary leader and a politician that transformed his time, not to feel very sorry as he struggles with illness and old age. 

Too big a machinery for tiny gains

National security is a critical function of any state. But it has to be carried out in a reasonable and legal manner, with full respect for the rights and liberties of the citizens. It should not become an obsession, an over-riding set of operations that want to cover everything, collect all kinds of information, employ disproportionate means and spend extravagant amounts of money.  

What we have been told during the last few days shows that in the area of national security it is very easy to go over the limits and be guided by the interests of those who work in the sector rather than by the nation’s interest.

It is also pretty easy to drown in an ocean of useless information, that is collected just to justify the size of the machinery, and lose sight of the targets that really matter. 

Bilderberg: a Western old men's joke

Today you and I know that we do not matter. Our names are not in the list of those attending this year’s Bilderberg Conference. This is annual secret get-together of politicians and businessmen that many see as the plotting house of the world. It is indeed a very secretive meeting, its list of attendees is small but powerful, and there are many conspiracy theories about the contents and intent of such annual meetings.

In the 2013 edition, that is just under way in the UK for the first time – the tradition is to have the meetings in the US – there are about 140 participants. Only 14 are women, which seems to show that when it comes to combining power and secrecy the big men do not trust the other gender. Also very interesting, almost everyone in attendance, with one exception, I think, is from a North-American or West European background. This seriously undermines the importance of the Bilderberg process: the world today is much bigger than the White Circles of the West. Even when those circles are bankers, media gurus, and their politicians. 

Syria's humanitarian disaster

The UN humanitarian appeal for Syria, launched today in Geneva, is the largest in the history of the organization: US $4.4 billion, to cover the basic needs up to the end of the year. This stunning figure gives a clear indication of the size of the humanitarian disaster that is taking place in Syria and in the refugee camps, just outside the country.  The survival of about 50% of Syria’s population is at risk.

Is the appeal going to be responded to? Very often these days such calls are addressed to ears that pretend to be deaf. Let’s see, for instance, if all those governments that have been very quick at approving the supply of arms to both sides in conflict are as fast when it comes to the humanitarian dimensions. 

Erdogan's game

I do not think Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, is not listening to the protesters in Istanbul and elsewhere in the country. In my opinion, he is very much aware of the reasons for the demonstrations. He knows that many people in the big cities are opposed to his politics of “cultural change”. But he is inspired by a very strict approach to religion and does not want to give up. He thinks he is in a mission, to bring Islam back to the centre of public life in Turkey. He knows that many traditional sectors of society welcome that kind of approach. Therefore, there is political mileage in pursuing it, he believes. As he also seems to believe that he can do with the opponents in the cities as he did with the top military officers: to intimidate them, to put the leaders in prison, under bizarre charges, to invent treason plots, to silence them. He might be convinced he will succeed. I wouldn’t be so sure. 

Syria's opposition is too divided

The extreme fragmentation of the Syrian opposition has become their most critical weakness.  Just in the area next to the Golan Heights, a very small part of the territory, there are about nine independent armed groups, if we can believe a generally well-informed intelligence service operating in the neighbourhood. In this circumstance, it is quite clear that it is not in the interest of the Assad regime to negotiate with the rebels. The regime believes they can gradually crush each armed group, one by one, as they did today in the strategically important city of Al-Qusayr. Therefore, the official doctrine in Damascus is to bet on a military solution. What is the Western response to this? And the Security Council's?

Portuguese politics

An opinion poll released this morning shows that 22% of the Portuguese voters would vote for the Communists and the leftist party called Boco de Esquerda. It is indeed the radical left that would take greater advantage of the social malaise that defines the country's current political situation.

The Socialists, a centre-left party, would however be the election winner, with 32.7% of the votes. But this result is not good enough and would call for a coalition with a smaller party. The most likely candidate would be the centre-right CDS, which represents 9.5% of the electorate.

Well, CDS is at present in government as a junior partner in a conservative coalition. One can expect the Socialists to take all kinds of initiatives to poison the existing coalition and provoke fresh elections as soon as possible. If they do not manage to bring the existing government down they will have to wait until 2015, when new elections are due. That’s a very long period for those who think they can get to power right away. 

Turkey on the streets

It is too early to be able to read the sense of the mass protests that are taking place in Istanbul, Ankara, and other cities of Turkey.

To call these demonstrations a “Turkish Spring” would be to ignore that the situation in Turkey is not comparable to those prevailing in North Africa and some parts of the Middle East. The country is a democracy. One might disagree with the political philosophy that inspires Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party, but one has to recognise that he has won the vote and has, in many ways, changed the country for the better.

However, Erdogan has to listen to facts and to the people on the streets. Turkey is not prepared for a more religious kind of approach to political life. And the Prime Minister should also understand that an electoral victory is not a licence to brush aside the opposing views. He won his fight against the military establishment, in some cases through very unorthodox and questionable means. But he cannot win against the people. 

UN cannot be silent about Syria

When it comes to the Syrian crisis, it is sad to note that the UN has lost the initiative. Even statements by top level UN officials about the dramatic situation the country is living have disappeared from the radar screen.

Some of us are afraid that one or two big nations might have sent a message to the UN Secretariat, something along the line: “Keep off!”

The UN cannot keep off a profound national crisis such as the Syrian one. It cannot. The human costs are too high. And the political risks for peace in the region are too many. Today more than ever.