Imagination and intuition

With change taking place at such a fast pace, the organizations have to become very flexible and adaptable. Rigid structures will be on the losers ‘side.

Unfortunately, that´s the case with many government administrations and public institutions. They can´t change fast enough, they have their own inertia and therefore they face the risk of becoming an economic and bureaucratic burden at a time when they should be anticipating the future and be able to respond to the new challenges.

The concept of anticipation is also crucial. The leaders are those who can read the signs and foresee the next generation of threats and opportunities. Imagination is, more than ever, a very precious commodity. 

Are we moving back to the old approach to national sovereignty?

This morning I attended a discussion about the current meaning of national sovereignty in Europe. The discussants recognised that we live now in a context of limited and shared sovereignty. As members of the EU, the countries have transferred some of their national powers to the Commission or the Council. And they have also agreed that some key decisions do require the consensus of the membership. These have been important steps towards a supranational approach to the common good.

Everybody seemed to agree that the trend towards pooled State sovereignty will continue and that there will more co-responsibility in the future and less decisions based on a narrow approach to national interests. 

I think it is good to have an optimistic view of EU´s collective will. That´s what will take us forward.

But I am not sure about the next few years. European countries give the impression they are moving back to the old views about sovereignty. That will certainly be a wrong direction. However, one should be aware of the facts. And be prepared for less. Even when we aim at more.

EU unity is under erosion

It doesn´t sound good when European governments start focusing the public discourse on migration movements from one EU state to another and talk about curbing the free flow of workers. This is one of the pillars of the Union. A basic fundamental principle. To challenge it undermines further the purpose of the EU, it is another step, let´s be clear, towards European disunity.

It is also a way of reviving the old ghosts of ultra-nationalism and even xenophobia. For centuries, Europe was built of hard-nosed nationalistic politics. That made the Continent one of the most unstable and war-prone of all. Then, after the Second World War, the trend was reversed and a common dream was put together. That has given us almost 70 years of peace.

Now, that might be under threat. Gradually, like erosion, but dangerously changing in the wrong direction.

Development co-operation requires leadership

In a discussion this afternoon about development co-operation the OECD Development Aid Committee President, Erik Solheim said that leadership is essential for change to occur.

He knows what he is talking about as he himself was an important agent of change in his home country, Norway.

But I have the impression that leadership in the area of development is lacking nowadays. After the Busan (Indonesia) conference in 2011, where new principles for aid assistance were agreed upon, too much emphasis has been placed on partnerships and very little on the responsibility to lead the process. And when everyone is in charge nobody leads. Without clear and responsible leadership we see the UN (UNDP) and OECD struggling to get heard and to make things to happen. Or, UNDP and OECD should be accepted as the leading players in the field of international co-operation.

Co-operation is indeed about partnerships. But someone has to guide the process. If not, each player will go about it as he/she sees fit. And that is at present the case. 

Central African Republic

There is increased noise about the possibility of a UN peacekeeping operation in the Central African Republic (CAR). The friends of that country and of Africa should amplify the noise to make sure the key world leaders understand that such a mission is required. It should actually be on the ground soonest.

However, I am afraid the noise will not be strong enough. My sources tell me there is little chance to be able to find the troops and deploy soon enough. The UN is still struggling with its deployment in Mali. To add CAR to the list would be like adding complication to complexity.

But it has to be done.

And at the same time, it calls for decisions on the rapid phasing out of peacekeeping missions where they are no longer critical. That brings to mind Cote d´Ivoire and Liberia, for instance.

Il also reminds us that the UN Security Council has to be better at defining and monitoring exit strategies. Peacekeeping missions need to be goal oriented and time sensitive. 

An excellent agreement with Iran

The agreement Iran and the P5 plus Germany reached and committed to is a very positive development in matters of international security. It can also have a very constructive impact in the stabilisation of the Middle East. Iran is indeed an important player in the region. The move towards cooperation with the West and the key representatives of the international community can open the doors for other agreements.

And the next one should be on Syria. It is now rime to engage on the solution of that tragedy as deeply as these countries have engaged on finding o modus vivendi with Iran.

Now a side comment. Israel has called the agreement with Iran “an historic mistake”. The mistake is however elsewhere. The Likud leadership, and especially Prime Minister Netanyahu, need to realise that those who signed the accord with Tehran are not simple minded fellows. They know very well what is going on in Iran and in the region. They know where their interests lie. If they have signed that means very clearly the step is in the right direction. No doubt, gentlemen! 

Pyromania

Former Portuguese President Mario Soares is now an old man. But he is still very much involved in his country´s politics. And at present he is in a crusade against the current President, Cavaco Silva, and the Prime Minister, Pedro Passos Coelho. Soares is actively campaigning to get them to resign. He thinks that these two are the key culprits when it comes to the economic crisis Portugal is going through.

As he is a fighter, and remains so, notwithstanding old age, Soares does not give up. And sometimes, as he did a couple of days ago, he goes too far and gives the impression that he is inciting people to violently oppose the President and the Prime Minister. Even, to physically attack them.

He knows, of course, that advocating violence against the Head of State and the Prime Minister could be seen as a criminal initiative. Therefore, he gives the impression that he is advising both of them to quit before it is too late and violence erupts.

As they say, the old fox knows how to go about catching the chicken.

The only problem is that Soares is fuelling a situation that is already very tense. That is a bit of a worry for many of us who think that the country needs enlightenment, not fires. 

The plane was full

My flight this evening from Basel to Brussels was full. I was amazed. How could it be? Basel might be rich and industrious, Mulhouse, in France, is just next door, the German border is there as well, but still, these are somehow what I would call provincial areas.

I came to the conclusion, once more, that you open a link between two cities and then you just get a lot of passengers. Air travel has become like a second nature to many people. 

Soldiers and Police

I have just been invited to address a high level (ministerial) meeting on the security threats in the Sahel Region. 

The initiative is a good one, because the Sahel has an impact on North Africa and Europe and the meeting brings people from those two sides of the Mediterranean together. But the interesting thing is that the meeting is called by defence leaders. The military are indeed looking at the issue.

But my message to them will be, among other things, a very clear one: these matters call for a close cooperation between the military and the police establishments. They are an opportunity for both sides to work together and show they can cooperate. 

Libya needs a stronger partnership with the EU

Libya´s internal situation calls for enhanced international support. The EU leaders need to engage the Libyan authorities and make clear they are ready for a much stronger and more coordinated partnership with the country. Institution building and the restoration of state authority are key priorities. The international assistance should focus on them. And recognise that a chaotic Libya at the doorstep of Europe and in the margins of the Sahel is a major threat to our stability and to the security of the very fragile African states that are in the vicinity. 

Again on Israel and its neighbours

Following my post of yesterday about Israel and Iran, I got call this afternoon from a friend who is also very close to Prime Minister Netanyahu. The caller had just arrived from Israel. And I could notice two things: the country´s leadership is very unhappy with the way the Obama team is looking at Iran´s nuclear issue; they can´t understand why people in Washington are so eager to strike a deal with the Iranians; and then, the second point concerns Israel´s believe they will be able to take military action against the nuclear facilities in Iran and get the tacit but firm approval of many in the Middle East, including the Saudis. This is actually encouraging the hard liners in Jerusalem to go for the bombing.

All this adds instability and unpredictability to a region that is already in deep turmoil. It´s not good at all!

Israel and Iran

It would be a mistake to underestimate Israel´s strategic interests as we get closer to the next round of negotiations with Iran.

The country´s leaders see Iran as a major threat.

They will try everything – including in the Capitol Hill in Washington – to make sure that the pressure on Tehran is not eased out. And in their tricks box, there is the menace of unilateral military action against the nuclear installations in Iran. The public mentioning by the Israelis of such a possibility is in itself a way of convincing Washington that an agreement with Iran is only good if it is a lose-win accord.

 And that is not possible, as I see it, because no leader in Tehran will accept an agreement that looks like a defeat. 

Barroso´s final months

Barroso has now said, in a TV interview, he is not seeking a new mandate as President of the European commission. His mandate ends in October 2014.

This is a smart move. He has been facing serious opposition from different quarters. Everything started with former French President Sarkozy, who towards the end of his presidency had come to dislike Barroso. People thought that would change with Hollande´s investiture. That has not been the case. Actually, Hollande became an open opponent of many of the EC President´s initiatives. And other EU leaders have also gained cold feet. So, as Barroso announces he will be out of the way in less of a year´s time he gets some free space to make a couple of bold proposals. During the next few months, he will keep an eye on history and will try to strike an initiative that will be for many years associated with his name.

This might also be a chance to see a stronger head of the EC. Europe needs to hear more than a few rumblings. 

The Commonwealth and the atrocities

The Sri Lankan government is hosting the 2013 Commonwealth Summit.

The choice of Sri Lanka as this year´s organising nation has been deeply criticised in many quarters in view of the recent atrocities carried out by the Colombo leaders against Tamil civilians in the Northern tip of the country. It has also been perceived as an example of poor judgement, a feature that many believe is the defining trait of the current Commonwealth Secretary-general, Kamalesh Sharma, an Indian diplomat that has made a career under the protection of Sonia Gandhi and her party. But Sharma is above all too tired and just interested in staying in London as long as possible. He has very little influence and no strength of will. That´s what the Sri Lankans knew and took advantage of. And now, they are trying to make a lot of mileage out of the summit.

I think they made a mistake. President Mahinda Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka thought he and his friends would come out of this initiative cleansed. However, the meeting is actually reminding the international public opinion that thousands of innocent people were slaughter by the national armed forces in 2010, at the end of the civil war.  And that took place under the direct responsibility of Rajapaksa and the rest of the clique. 

Comprehensive peacekeeping operations

Yesterday we had a discussion here in Brussels among international staff about peacekeeping.

 My colleagues, who are well informed and widely travelled people, could not avoid the usual mistake in this type of discussions: to reduce peacekeeping to military operations, boots on the ground and many of them for that matter. They forgot, like many do, the important role Police play in peace support operations. I had to remind them that more and more often the security challenges these missions are facing have more to do with Police work than with soldiers ‘work. The UNPOL, for instance, has become in the last few years a major Police division in the UN Secretariat. It is also an example of the UN´s capacity to adapt to new demands.

And then beyond the Police, there are now thousands of civilian experts equally involved in peacekeeping. 

Their contributions in many areas make the current operations multidimensional and more comprehensive. 

The capital of Europe is a little village at heart

Belgacom, the Belgian telecommunications giant, could not protect us, the subscribers in Brussels, from an illegal intrusion into our accounts by the British espionage services. The GCHQ, the UK agency that spies on communications networks, has been able to gladly penetrate the Belgacom systems and extract all the information they deemed useful for their masters in London.

Why should one be surprised? I live in a street that is considered “very fine”.  Notwithstanding that I have a weak internet signal. Today, the Belgacom technician came to check, at my request – a request that was made two weeks ago and dutifully booked then to be implemented today. He told me that the line for my house derives from a box some 80 metres away. That´s not bad, I thought. But he added that the fellows that laid down the cables went around the block before reaching my house. Therefore, it was no longer an 80 metres journey but a long trek through the side and back streets. That explains why my signal is not strong enough.

He promised me they would now bring a straight line from the box to my place. When, I do not know. But soon, I am told.

I asked him about fibre cables. The answer I got was very clear. Belgacom has now approved the implementation plan to lay the fibre things. But he is now sure about the starting date of the up-dating.

Well, this is the EU capital. But I think they have not yet realised that at the telecomm company. Another proof of it is that we have no Al Jazeera in our channel list, I mean, no access to that key TV channel in English. If I want to watch it, it is in my room… in Arabic!

Recently I told this story to my friends in Foreign Affairs in Oslo. They couldn´t believe that a place like this one cannot access the English version of Al Jazeera. But they have to understand: Brussels keeps, in many ways, the features of a small town. And that is charming! And frustrating, as well!

The Armed Forces and the humanitarian response

I wrote yesterday that the response to the typhoon disaster in the Philippines calls for a deep involvement of the Armed Forces, both from the country and from outside – US, Australian, Malaysian, Indonesian, etc. The magnitude of the logistical challenges, particularly airlifting of assistance, can only be met by means available within the military. No civilian humanitarian organisation, including the UN, can gather the operational means it takes to bring food and shelter to the large number of victims, some of them in very remote areas.

Some of my humanitarian friends do not like the idea of having the soldiers implicated in humanitarian operations. And a couple of them told me they had serious issues with my post of yesterday. But my answer is very simple: this an extreme situation that fully justifies a very close collaboration between the humanitarian agencies and the Armed Forces. Thousands of lives are at stake and need urgent help. They can only get it if the cooperation takes place. No doubt about it.

And we have no time to waste on doctrinal issues. This is a time to move fast and effectively. 

Haiyan´s response is too slow

The international response to Super Typhoon Haiyan is rather slow and surprisingly modest at this stage. One of the reasons seems to be related to lack of leadership on the side of the international community. Every player is going about it on its own. There is no recognised leader, no visible coordinator of efforts.

The world emergency response mechanisms should be better prepared to tackle this type of major crisis. And apparently they are not.

Logistics are also a key shortfall. This is also very surprising. In the region there are major armed forces capabilities that could be mobilised to provide the logistical support. Actually, they are the only ones that have the vast operational means that are required to urgently assist the populations. Why is it not taking place? 

Haiyan and the international cooperation

Super Typhoon Haiyan has caused a major humanitarian disaster in the Philippines. I would like to see the EU emergency response machinery to be fully mobilised to provide assistance without any further delay. And to do so in close coordination with the UN.

Then, on a second phase, the donors should meet with the Manila government and be prepared to fund an extensive reconstruction and investment programme to rehabilitate and strengthen the resilience of the areas affected by the disaster.

You react to this by telling me I believe in a better world. Yes, I do. Enhancing international cooperation in situations like this is key step towards that world. 

A changing Middle East

We understand better the current negotiations in Geneva between Iran and the P5 plus Germany if we take into account two factors.

First, the economic situation in Iran. The sanctions against Tehran are biting and their oil is also losing the leverage it used to have, as the world moves into other sources of energy and other techniques to generate oil. All this is having a serious impact on the Iranian economy. The regime knows that a very urbanised and young country as theirs cannot accept austerity for too long. The leaders´political survival requires a compromise with the key western countries as well as with Russia and China. They know it.

Second, for the West, a long view of their strategic interests places much more emphasis on improving the relations with the Arab and Muslim world in the Middle East. The turmoil in Iraq and now in Syria is a serious menace for peace and stability in the region. It is also a very important generator of extremism and religious fanatics. In the end, the Muslim populations of that part of the world have a much greater weight than Israel. For that reason, we are seeing a gradual shift away from Israel´s positions and a clear intent to improve the diplomatic relations with the Muslim states in the region.

The regional geopolitics are changing fast. 

Spending time in Addis Ababa

I spent the last few days in Addis Ababa.

My last visit had been in the late years of the 90´s decade. Many things have changed since then. There is impressive economic growth and the city keeps transforming itself all the time. It has also been growing very fast. The country´s population growth rate is very high. Around two million people are added to Ethiopia´s population every year. When I visited Addis for the first time, in 1978, the total population figure was around 37 million, Eritrea included. Today, the Ethiopians are over 86 million, Eritrea not counted, as it has become another country.

These numbers carry major challenges. No country can move fast enough to respond to such a population pressure. Even if the economic growth rate is very high, as it is the case in today´s Ethiopia. And you have to add to it major social inequalities and the tensions that come from ethnic diversity and different strong religious identities.

The government has been able so far to manage these threats. It has kept a very heavy lid on this boiling pressure cooker. The state control is still very ubiquitous. However, the key question is now: how long can this control last as the young people become more and more numerous and urbanised?

To pay or not to pay?

A couple of days ago four Frenchmen that had been kidnapped in Niger three or so years ago were released by their captors. 

Kidnapping of Europeans became, a few years ago, a new business line for the many bandits that operate in the vast and lonely sands of the Sahel and Sahara.

I was, at a given time, involved in combatting that type of crimes. And it was said, already then, that the French are always ready to pay ransom money. Therefore, for the armed bandits to kidnap a French citizen was the best move. There was good money at the end of the line.

And this time again, there has been a payment. €20 million is a good sum. It was paid by a private company, we are told. But for the fellows out there, money is money, be it from the State or from a deep private pocket.

In the end, the question that matters is clear: should ransom money be paid to get kidnapped persons released? The answer is not that simple. At least, for some. 

Individualism is a key value of today´s world

The political leaders seem to have lost control, in several countries, of their national security apparatus.

The espionage saga is still very much unfolding. It is certainly undermining President Obama´s international prestige. And that´s a pity, for many reasons. But it will end up by undermining other leaders ‘reputations as well, I fear.

It is quite obviously that the EU leaders are in hot water: either they were not aware of their services´ activities, or they are trying to deceive us. In any case, it is not good news. If they were not aware, that means they can easily be fooled. I would not be surprised, in some cases.

On the other hand, if they are trying to mislead the public opinion about what they really knew and about their hidden intentions, they are missing two important points: people have presently more access to information than ever and they will end up by knowing what is going on; secondly, people´s privacy is a key issue today as it was yesterday; one should not confuse participation in social networks with willingness to disclose every aspect of one´s life. Privacy remains a very valued feature of today´s life. It is actually linked to individualism, a key dimension of the modern times.