Absence due to extensive travel schedule

THIS BLOG WILL BE "ABSENT" UP TO 21 MAY.

PUBLICATION WILL RESUME ON 22 MAY.

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Mali needs a much longer political transition

There will be a second donor conference for Mali on 15 May in Brussels. I am afraid it will be another game of smoke and mirrors. Promises, promises, and further promises. The first one, at the end of January in Addis Ababa produced over 450 million dollars of pledges but little –only about a quarter of that amount –has effectively been made available. The humanitarian needs are far from being met. Food vulnerability is widespread in the North. Money for the reform of the armed forces and the security sector has not materialised. The dialogue and reconciliation process is not supported. Public administration is starved of funds and paralysed 

And I am also afraid there will additional pressure on the Transitional Government to move faster on the preparations for the July elections –presidential and legislative –when everybody knows that elections at this early stage are not a solution. The transition phase requires a much longer period of time. 

Italian politics: some good news

Seen from where I sit, the new Italian government looks good. It has a broad basis, its outlook is modern and it seems to be able to have a strong voice in the affairs of Europe. One should be a little optimistic about its future performance and also about its contribution to balancing power within the EU.

I am also convinced the markets will react positively to the composition of this cabinet. 

Brussels lunches and dinners

Brussels is a lobbyists’ paradise. I am told there are close to 30,000 living around the European institutions and other entities. One can imagine how many invitations for lunch and dinner the big shots in the EU Commission, Council, Parliament, and elsewhere get every week…One should also imagine the flow of gifts and favours that is taking place on a daily basis…

It is also a spies’ heaven. Nobody knows exactly how many they are. The head of the Belgian secret service talks about many hundreds but who knows? In any case, their presence means plenty of lunch and dinner invitations too. That’s the most classical way of getting information.

It is also said the city houses the largest press corps in the world. It is true that the number of journos  has decreased during the last few years, because of the crisis and its impact on the resources made available to the media. But it is still a large number, close to a thousand people accredited with the EU alone. That is also a lot of invitations for a good meal…At least, as far as the largest papers and TV stations are concerned, because the scribblers from smaller outfits are more interested in being invited that anything else. They are always looking for a free meal…

Taking all this into account, maybe I should envisage opening a classy restaurant in the international district of Brussels. I am sure it is good business…

A divided country

For reasons of work planning, I had decided that the family’s weekly grocery shopping should take place this morning. Consequently, I drove to my local supermarket, a big place just a mile from home.

My first surprise was to see the car parking pretty empty. Then, I walked to the shop only to find out that it was closed. There was a strike across the board in Brussels and in the French-speaking part of the country, I was told. Attendants working for large commercial stores were among those heavily engaged in the labour action.

Well, a plan is a plan. So, I decided to drive for about seven or eight miles along the same road out of the capital city and do my shopping in the Flemish region. In a supermarket of the same chain the one next to my place belongs to. And I did. In that part of the country what had been called a national strike was a non-event. 

Mali and a divided UN

Albert Gerard "Bert" Koenders has been the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General (SRSG) in Cote d’Ivoire since August 2011. He is now being shifted from Abidjan to Bamako to lead the new peacekeeping mission in Mali ( MINUSMA). He is very new to peacekeeping and to the African realities, as he spent his time in Dutch politics and as Development Co-operation Minister.

And he has a major job ahead of him. Which will be further complicated because there is a very serious rivalry between two UN departments regarding the Malian agenda: the Department of Political Affairs (DPA) believes that the political transition should be the priority objective, whilst DPKO, the Department of Peacekeeping Operations is going to take the lead and push for the military operations and internal security to be at the forefront.

Interesting, isn't it? 

Mali is not moving in the right direction

Mali’s internal situation continues to be very fragile. The key international partners of this country need to coordinate better among themselves and agree on a common strategy in support of the stabilization process and the political transition.  This is a matter of great urgency.

It is also a matter of great concern to see that a country that has played an important role in the history of West Africa and has also been able to produce a large number of fine minds is today politically fragmented. No leader has emerged. Without a clairvoyant leader as a counterpart the external friends of Mali will not be able to succeed. It would be a mistake to forget this evidence.   

Ransom payments

A few years ago, when I was based in N’Djamena, I visited the Waza National Park, in Northern Cameroon on three different occasions.

The Park is located in a desolated corner of Central Africa. The main road between N’Djamena and Waza is a very strange place. You feel desperately isolated over there. It is a Cameroonian road that has seen better days. If you stop your car and walk to the right hand shoulder of the road you are in Nigerian territory. If go off road to the left you soon hit the Chadian border. On both sides you meet from time to time a few villages where life is tough and as arid as the land. And at certain times of the year, you come across the nomad people known as Mbororo, a subgroup of cattle-herders linked to the Fulani ethnic group. Actually, it is much easier to see their cows in the Waza National Park than wild animals.  

It is not a place for mass tourism.

This was the place however where a French family was kidnapped a couple of months ago. The parents and their children, plus another male relative, had been on a visit to the park. They were then taken by force across the border into Nigeria. At the time the media said they had been hijacked by the terrorist group Boko Haram. Maybe, maybe not, as there are other armed bandits in the region.

The fact of the matter is that the family was released without a fight and in very unclear circumstances a couple of days ago. The French government, including the President himself, were very much at the forefront of this liberation and made sure the media coverage was as good as it gets. And they were quick to deny that ransom money had been paid.

I want to believe so. I also know that up to very recently the French authorities used to pay – and deny it – for the French nationals that had been kidnapped in Africa to be set free. That was a very wrong approach to the problem. That was the best way to encourage the bandits expand the business and to look for more victims.

But is it a better approach to put a lot of political pressure on the governments of Cameroon and Nigeria for them to make a nice gesture and open the prison gates to a good number of incarcerated people who happen to be connected to the kidnappers? 

When the image spirals out of control...

Two friends of mine are travelling to Greece tomorrow for a week away from our grey skies. They bought a package holiday, the well-known “all inclusive deal”. Yesterday, when collecting the vouchers, they realised that the 5-star hotel they had picked is closed for lack of guests, then the alternative option is also closed; only the third choice is indeed available. They then realised that Greece has somehow disappeared from the holiday map of Northern Europe. For now, at least, I should say, and particularly for the high end segment of the tourism market.

This is no good news for Greece.

Uprooted and lost as a young man

In Western Europe, there are thousands of young men like the one that has been captured in Boston or his dead brother.

They are the children of immigrant families that came from afar. Most of those families just ran away from poverty. But many others have left behind violent conflict experiences, be it in the Middle East, in South Asia or in Africa. Or maybe closer by, in the Balkans or the Caucasus. Their sons – it’s indeed a boy’s problem – might have been born in Europe and raised in a peaceful and democratic context but some of them feel uprooted and excluded. They end up by aligning themselves with those who express extremist views about the West. For some, the war in Syria has been an opportunity to join what they believe to be a Cause. Others have been elsewhere, including in Pakistan. These fronts have made them harder and more willing to take action. As such, they represent a major security challenge to the Western European societies. And the experience has shown that this is a challenge that is difficult to match. 

Confidence in the security institutions

The response of the FBI and other police forces to the aftermath of the Boston bombings has been exemplary. The coordination among the services, the mobilization of an extraordinary amount of resources, both human and material, the relations with the citizens and the management of the media will be looked at in many police academies, in different parts of the world, as cases of best practices and models to be followed.  

Among the many lessons, they remind us that celerity in the resolution of these major threats to public life is key to recapturing people’s confidence in the security institutions and on national political leadership. 

Daring to ask the question

I was explaining to someone today that the role of this blog is to raise questions. I added that very often the political actors dare not ask the key questions. They are concerned with their positions and career. Therefore, they do not want to be perceived by their group’s leaders as challengers. I do not care about my career – it has been achieved – and I am not looking for any position. So, I beg the question and the question is based on two very simple premises: on experience and on sincerity

Mali and the international community

Mali is still in crisis. The Northern territories are far from being secured and the political situation in the capital and throughout the country is very unstable.  The Dialogue and Reconciliation Commission formally adopted on 6 March 2013 is yet to start working. Many of its Commissioners have not yet been appointed. The UN peace-keeping operation is at the design stage. The Security Council resolution that will approve the mission, under the very strange name of United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) – multidimensional needs not to be in the name, if it is an integrated mission – has been drafted but has not yet been finalised. In any case, if it were approved in the next weeks it will take several months to have the peacekeeping forces fully operational. On the other hand, the EU presence that is supposed to train the new Malian military and security personnel is just beginning its deployment.

In view of all this, the elections scheduled for July 2013 – presidential elections on 7 July 2013 and legislative elections on 21 July 2013 – seem pretty premature. I do not see the necessary minimum conditions being in place by July for peaceful and credible elections to take place. Therefore, I can’t understand the reasoning of the key Northern partners of Mali that continue to insist that this calendar should be abided by. 

On terrorism

Terrorism remains a major threat in some corners of the world. Our duty is to condemn all forms of terrorism anywhere and remember that the fight against terrorism is above all a police task. The role of politicians and intellectuals is to advocate for the police to be given the means to do their job, within the law and with full respect for the rights of the citizens. .

Then, after the police work, it is a matter of effective administration of justice.

My experience, sometimes in difficult conditions, has taught me that those who try to fight it through military means or by ways of political concessions are taking the issue from the wrong end. 

No ambiguity this time

In the field of international affairs, ambiguity is a useful political tool. Some call it "constructive ambiguity". I advocate its use as often as possible. Smart leaders do not need to hear the full sentence to understand what is at stake. Furthermore, ambiguity allows for some face saving decisions. Ambiguity creates room for compromise.

But there is a time when the clarity of the message is essential. It serves as a serious warning.

John Kerry’s message to North Korea, during the last few days, when visiting China and Japan, was indeed very clear. And dead serious. The young man of Pyongyang has gone too far and should know that he will pay dearly if he crosses the line on the sand.

My impression is that Kerry’s notice has been received. 

Syria's impact in Europe

The Belgian political leadership sees with great concern a number of young men volunteering to fight side by side with the rebel groups in Syria. They are Belgian nationals with an immigrant background. They come from Muslim families that migrated to Belgium one or two generations ago. Their parents might be mosque-going people but are not extremists. The younger fellows, many of them in their early twenties, make contact with radical groups through informal clubs, sports associations, coffee shops and internet sites. As they feel relatively disconnected from the Belgian way of life and society they are fertile ground for the radical seeds to grow.

The authorities are trying to address the problem. But these informal networks of tiny cells are very difficult to spot and monitor. It is even difficult to have a realistic estimate of the numbers involved. But it is certainly a big issue, if one takes into account the political and security attention the matter is getting these days. 

The useful idiot

In the end, Kim Jong-un is more than just a dangerous loony, he is a useful idiot. His gimmicks have become an impeccable justification for a much deeper involvement of the US military in the region. The US pivot to Northeast Asia, initiated a year or so ago, is now given a new impetus.

Kim’s follies have also given a chance to the new government in Japan to put together an extraordinary show of force in Tokyo. This masterly move has now caught the attention of the citizens, taking them away from other concerns related to the poor performance of the Japanese economy or the nuclear meltdown at Fukushima.

 And the dangerous fool will end up by contributing to an acceleration of the arms race in a region where China, South Korea and Japan, in particular, are major military competitors.

It’s indeed time to stop this fellow. 

Crossing the desert

A lonely rooster was walking across the desert. It was a long walk under very harsh conditions. But the proud cock was, in his own judgment, no fool. He had a purpose and a destination in mind. So, he kept marching…

(Here my story is interrupted by a lady from Berlin that, in a very down-to-earth manner, adds that… then the poor fellow collapses and dies of thirst and exhaustion!).

What a finale!

In the world of this lady there is no room for out-of-the-box imagination.

EU Commission should be more daring

You ask EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn and his team what is the solution for country A or B or C to return to growth and you always get the same prescription. They seem to know only one mantra. It has three lines: augment your exports; lower your labour costs; cut your public debt.

I wonder.

If every EU should boost its exports, where are the import markets?

How far should one lower the labour costs to be competitive with China or Bangladesh?

Why should we cut public debt so dramatically at a time of recession? Why can’t we get the European Central Bank’s statutes changed in order for it to be able to do some quantitative easing? Is Rehn afraid of saying that because he does not wish to offend Berlin?

The point here is very simple. We expect the EU Commission to tell the citizens of Europe what should be done effectively, together and on a country by country basis. They at the Commission are paid to produce an independent advice.

Then, Berlin, The Hague, and other capitals and their national politicians will respond if, yes or no, they want to do it.

A Commission that only recommends what the EU political masters want to hear is useless.  

Mozambique needs to enhance the domestic political dialogue

On Saturday about twenty armed men attacked a police station in a rural area of central Mozambique. The attackers could be linked to former rebels of Renamo, an organization that fought the Frelimo-led government during the eighties and early years of the nineties. That was at the time a very ugly civil war.

Today, Renamo has changed itself in to a political movement. As a party, it sits in Parliament and its leader, Afonso Dhlakama, is given the status of Opposition leader. But the old tensions between the two sides are still very much part of Mozambique’s political life. The Saturday incident is only a remote reminder of the widespread, deep animosity that defines the relations between Renamo and the party in power, Frelimo.  

 Mozambique’s Human Rights League (LDH) has just called the attention of those who want to see the reality that civil war could come back. And it appeals for statesmanship, tolerance and political consultations. Particularly at a time when local elections are being prepared and national legislative elections are scheduled for 2014.

During the last twenty years the donor community has invested heavily in the country.  They have become major partners in the peace building process. They should make use of their leverage to push both political sides to dialogue. It would be a serious mistake – which the key international players cannot afford – to pretend that there is no problem. 

UNDP and the interests of the private sector

UNDP, the UN Development Programme, is about to finalise its new policy on partnerships with private corporations and foundations. Initial indications tell us that the organization will not accept any kind of association with firms and institutions linked to the tobacco and arms industries.

This is certainly a good decision.

It will be interesting to find out if the exclusionary criteria will also include financial houses that make tonnes of money on speculative transactions as well as other companies that are known for their very limited respect for local communities or the environment. 

Margaret Thatcher: a simple tribute

Margaret Thatcher, who died this morning, stood among the most salient leaders of the second half of the 20^th Century. Born in poverty and being a woman in a man’s world, she overcame stereotype and prejudice. She was a person of great nerve and resolve, very tactical and at the same time, focussed on the big picture and strategic. Like many leaders, she could be extremely stubborn and very suspicious about the people surrounding her.

All in all, her example inspired many; even those who deeply disagreed with her ideologically charged conservative views and policies. 

Leaders understand the public mood

As I observe what is going on in some European countries, I have to recognise I do not understand Prime Ministers who are afraid of reshuffling the composition of their Cabinet.  It is a serious leadership weakness. It gives the impression the leader is trapped by his or her direct collaborators and has no real power to change ministers and bring in new blood.

It also sends a very strong negative signal of stubbornness, inability to adjust to new political circumstances.  For the voters, it looks like the leader is just ignoring the way the public opinion has evolved since Cabinet has been put together. 

Strong, capable and accepted leadership is critical

The Portuguese Constitutional Court has reviewed the 2013 national budget law and declared four revenue generating measures invalid because they violate the spirit of the country’s Constitution. The cancellation of these fiscal initiatives has an impact on the overall budget deficit, as they increase it by 0.8% to reach a deficit of around 6.3% of GDP this year. This is way above the amount agreed with Portugal’s external creditors. It projects a negative international image that contradicts the very serious stabilisation efforts the country has implemented so far.

The Court’s decision has created a major political crisis. The Prime-Minister met the President this evening to review possible options. But there aren't many, in the short term. The stabilisation process requires a long time horizon. The country has to be able to convince its external partners that as it pleads for more time and flexibility it also stays the reform course. It has also to show that it has a strong, capable and accepted leadership at the rudder…  

Access to political power

As the offshore findings of The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) have shown, information technology has a major impact on political transparency. Access to information is now much easier and government leaders know that it has become much more difficult to hide corrupt practices away from the citizens. But that is not enough. It is time to transform the access to information into access to political power and be able to ensure renewal at the level of the political elites. Democracy is also about opening the leading circle to new entrants.  

Offshore

Today’s big news is the disclosure of the findings of an extensive worldwide investigation carried out by a large consortium of international journalists about offshore financial transactions. 

It is true that many of the identified operations are legal, in terms of the international law regulating financial and business activities. However, it is also a fact that a large number of those transactions are just a cover for criminal activities, including outright stealing of public monies by some very well-known government leaders.

It is too early to evaluate the impact of this wide-ranging investigative work. But one can expect a number of heavy political storms in the days ahead. But, I suspect that in the end the ones that will be prosecuted will be the smaller fish, the mere mortals, not the big leaders linked to political power. 

In politics, you better be your own man (or woman)

During my work with President Francois Bozizé of the Central African Republic (CAR) – from 2008 to 2010 – I always felt that he was too inclined to indiscriminately follow Idriss Déby’s positions.  For me, and I said it several times, it was not good politics to be so much dependent on the Chadian President.

 First, Chad and CAR are too very different socio-political realities. Even Southern Chad, that at the surface could be considered similar to CAR, is distinct and cannot be easily compared with the reality south of the border.

Second, Déby is a man from the Sahel and his views about Central Africa are not necessarily the most appropriate ones.

Third, the support Bozizé was looking for in N’Djamena had a negative impact on CAR’s domestic politics: leveraged by Chad, Bozizé did not see the critical relevance and urgency of moving faster on the issues of national reconciliation and power-sharing.

But Bozizé had a different view.

Now, things have changed. He has been ousted from power. And from his temporary refuge in Cameroon, today Bozizé accused the President of Chad of being behind the rebels that chased him from the presidency and the country.

As they say, quite often in politics the lessons are learned when it is already too late. 

France's frustations

The new French leaders feel very frustrated. This is now the talk in town, within the top power circles of Europe.

There are two main reasons for such frustration. One, it has to do with the very low approval ratings President François Hollande is getting when the voters are polled. He is now just over 30%. This is a very weak satisfaction level for a president that is still very much at the beginning of his mandate. Hollande and his advisors do not understand why the French public opinion is not responding more favourably. They are genuine when they say they do not understand the voters ‘reaction. Last week’s television interview of the President had no impact on the ratings. That has been an extremely discouraging reality check for Hollande and his people.

The other reason is related to the role of France within the EU. Hollande is very distressed he has not been able to fill the European shoes left by his predecessor. He knows Germany and other think-alike countries, such as Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands pay no attention to his views. The President of France has been reduced, in many ways, to the level of second line leaders, such as Spain or Poland. And he is not happy. But he has no idea how to turn this situation around.

I am one of those who think this state of affairs is pretty dangerous for Europe. France’s frustration will end up by bursting out. And the consequences might seriously contribute to further split and fragment the EU. 

Fools and long weekends

On April Fool’s Day you might not believe me but it was a sunny day in Brussels. Cold but sunny!

You should also trust me if I tell you that this evening most of the residential areas of the city are as deserted as in a holiday. Tomorrow is a working day but people seem to be extending the Easter weekend…

Europe loves long weekends…

Who told you we have to work harder to get over the crisis?