Comics: a man´s world

In Europe, the key annual event about comics and cartoons takes place every January in Angoulême, an old town lost somewhere in the South-West of France. This year´s festival is just over. During four days, thousands of new creations by some of the world´s leading cartoonists were exhibited. As in the previous years, Angoulême attracted big crowds.

A major prize is attributed to one of cartoonists. It is like a top Oscar. It sends the message that the laureate has made it to the hall of fame. In 2016, among the 30 names selected for inclusion in the final list of candidates to the prize there was no woman. Here, in the comics world, like in many other domains of life, gender is still a silent but extremely efficient filter. 

Syria´s moves

In the end, it might not result. But the UN´s determination in moving ahead with the Syrian political talks in Geneva most be commended. Every interested party, from the country and from the outside world, with the exception of the Islamic State and Al-Nusra Front terrorists, has to be faced with the reality: it is time to find a political solution to the long lasting crisis. They better sit around the table or in the rooms next door and be part of the solution.

It will not be easy. But it is the only way forward.

It should however be accompanied by an intensification of the campaigns against the two terrorist organisations mentioned above. That new degree of intensity can only be achieved through the action of Special Forces. As the Geneva process takes off the ground, the background discussions about the use and the role of such forces should take place elsewhere and under the co-leadership of the US and Russia. The UN should have no role there. 

The EU has to move fast on a common immigration policy approach

There is urgency. The EU should agree on a common immigration policy without further delays. The work on it has to start now and the citizens ought to be made aware of it. But, attention, the proposal should originate from a group of wise men and women. They should be requested by the European Commission to consult with the different governments and then come up with a policy platform that could be adopted by all the states. It should be possible to achieve this kind of agreement. It´s worth trying. What we cannot see is the continuation of the current cacophony, with each capital going at it alone. This creates aberrant situations, opens plenty of space for incomprehension, gives chances to those who want to criticise. 

Combatting radicalisation

There is an EU Commissioner for Migration and Home Affairs. Among his responsibilities, I would underline the following: “identifying where the EU can make a real difference in fighting terrorism and radicalisation, with an emphasis on addressing the problem of foreign fighters”.

That sounds good.

And there is indeed a lot of work that has been done by different EU players and also in coordination with the member States during the last two years, after the approval on 15 January 2014 of a plan under the title of “Preventing Radicalisation to Terrorism and Violent Extremism: Strengthening the EU's Response”. The problem seems to be that the European public opinion is not aware of all this. The citizens have the impression that there isn´t really an approach to deal with radicalisation.

I think it is time to inform them. That´s another way of combatting the growing fear. 

UN on Israel´s settlements

Today the UN Secretary-general expressed his concerns regarding the continued expansion of Israeli settlements in occupied territories. And he called for a freeze of the expansion. There is nothing very new here, but it is important it has been said by the top UN official.

The Prime Minister of Israel did not like Ban Ki-moon´s words. I can understand that. What I cannot accept is Benjamin Netanyahu´s official written statement accusing the SG of “encouraging terrorism”.  

Portuguese presidential elections

The Portuguese voted yesterday to elect a new Head of State. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a law professor and a TV personality – for many years he commented every Sunday on politics and general affairs on a national news channel and became a household name – was voted in as the next President.

For part of the public opinion he is seen as a moderate right-winger. In fact, he is an open-minded conservative, very liberal in many aspects. In other societies, he would be labelled as a man of the centre-left. Actually, many of those on the Portuguese right would be considered as pretty progressive by the standards of several rightist parties in other countries of Europe. And, in the US, Donald Trump would call them “dangerous leftists”…

Quick note on Davos 2016

Davos 2016 is now completed. The last footprints on the snow are just disappearing. But the intellectual and political footprints that marked four days of discussions will remain for a good while. We can say a lot of bad things about Davos and its crowds. But we have also to recognise that the annual meetings offer a special opportunity to reflect about the present and the future. Some of the best minds engage in the debates. And that´s the big plus of the Davos initiative.

There are many take-home ideas that came out of the many sessions, dialogues and presentations. I would like to refer to three of them.

First, today´s world faces a good deal of simultaneous crises. This combination of very profound challenges carries a new level of risks, an unprecedented hodgepodge of perils. 

Second, the nations and the international institutions are not prepared to respond to the complexities. That makes everything much more dangerous and unpredictable. It also contributes in a very big way to the discredit of leaders and the international system, including the UN.

Third, we can expect a very serious increase of the inequalities. As we move into more sophisticated forms of production and economic activity, the income and wealth differences will increase. On one side, we will see those who can take advantage of the new technologies and of the global system of exchanges. On the other, there will masses of individuals and families left behind. Power and fragility will be the sides of the future. And we can expect that people will not be ready to accept it with just a smile.

Tunisia needs Europe´s attention

The Tunisian youth is again on the streets. Five years after the beginning of the democratic transition many things have been achieved in terms of freedom, human rights and gender. The country remains the only example, in the Arab region, of a peaceful and legitimate change. But the economic opportunities are still missing. It is dreadfully hard to find a job. The terrorist attacks have kept the tourists away. The complex and dangerous situation in the neighbourhood, with Libya on one side and Algeria on the other, is not helping either. Many young Tunisians have actually been radicalised and about five thousand of them have joined the ranks of the barbaric organization that calls itself “Islamic State”.

In addition, there are serious governance issues that have not been addressed. Corruption is widespread. All these problems have created the impression that there is no future for the younger generations. The overall sentiment is one of deep frustration. Therefore, people are back to the streets, and again in very large numbers.

I have called on several occasions for assistance to the Tunisian democracy. The country needs investments, trade agreements, gender-balanced skills development, security assistance and tourists. It also requires a major overhaul of its public administration. EU should focus on Tunisia. France has promised today one billion euros of financial assistance to be disbursed during the next five years. But Paris should also be the Tunisian advocate in the European institutions. Europe cannot let Tunisia down.

The Syrian negotiations should go ahead

The negotiations on Syria are scheduled for next week in Geneva. The formal leadership of the process rests with the UN. And it is in the interest of the UN to have a diverse representation of the factions that are engaged in the conflict, with the exception of the most extreme, such as the so-called Islamic State and the al-Qaeda inspired Jabhat al-Nusra. Everybody else who is prepared to discuss should be around the place. Not necessarily, at the beginning, around the same table, but part of the process for sure.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia and other countries are trying to prevent some movements from being invited. We could expect that. It´s consistent with their interests. But it´s up to the UN to say no to that kind of pressure.

There are no saints in the Syria disaster. This is a tragedy of devils. But those among them that believe they can negotiate, give and take, should be in. In these matters you confront and discuss with your enemies, including the worst among them. And you appreciate their willingness to be around. That´s actually the difference between them and the terrorists. A terrorist is a criminal that accepts no room for a compromise.

On Iran and the lifting of the sanctions

The nuclear-related sanctions against Iran have been lifted. The country is back in terms of business with the West. It is also open for a new type of political engagement with our part of the world. All that can only be seen as good news. Besides the economic opportunities this new situation opens, it is also a contribution to a more balanced distribution of power in the Middle East. The next step is to help the country and Saudi Arabia to normalise their diplomatic relations. It´s in the interest of both countries and also to the advantage of conflict resolution in the region. 

Taiwan´s elections and post-electoral realism

The people of Taiwan voted heavily for the opposition, both in terms of the presidential and legislative elections. Opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen has been elected as Taiwan’s next president. She will be the first woman to lead the country.

In the past, Ms. Tsai was the leading Taiwanese negotiator with China. Therefore she knows how important is to keep the line open with Beijing, even if the majority of her support comes from those who would like to see Taiwan become an independent country. It is a fine balancing act that is required from her but political realism leaves no other option for Taiwan. Anything else would further complicate the tense situation that is already a key feature of the geopolitical situation in East Asia. 

Terrorism in Ouagadougou

Another day, another terrorist attack. This time the target is an international hotel in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. In the evening, there were a couple of explosions outside the hotel and then a group of armed men stormed the facility. At this stage it is still a developing crisis. I am afraid it will end as a very tragic event.

Burkina Faso is a good example in Africa. The country has just completed a democratic transition. Elections were disputed with fair play and the results accepted by everyone. A new President and a fresh government have just been inaugurated. All seems very promising in a country that has a very young population, well educated and where the religious and ethnic diversity has not been played by the politicians. It is a pretty tolerant and open society.

It is also next door to Mali and part of the Sahel region. These are very sensitive areas.

Tonight´s sad events in Ouagadougou are just a reminder, a very dramatic one, of the dangers that many countries are facing these days. The fight against terrorism is now one of the top priorities and does call for an international supporting mechanism. Countries like Burkina Faso need and deserve such support. 

They are often wrong but the salary is great

My daily tasks include a close scrutiny of the financial analysts’ opinions and forecasts. And I am very often amazed. The spectrum of views is so wide and the predictions are so often off track! With time, their forecasts are systematically contradicted by the facts, particularly at times like the present one when the unknowns are many. But they always have a good excuse. And they earn good salaries. All that makes me wonder, now and then, if I have not chosen the wrong career path. 

Obama´s State of the Union speech seen from Brussels

The European media treated President Obama´s State of the Union speech very kindly. The spin has indeed been very positive.

For most of us in the EU, Obama continues to be perceived as a very principled politician and also as a wise leader. People know the American economy is now stronger, jobs have been created in large numbers – 14 million new jobs during his presidency –, the unemployment rate has been cut in half and the government deficit slashed by three-quarters. Europeans also know that Obama has given priority to diplomacy and multilateralism when addressing international issues. Moreover, they feel that the US under Obama has not abandoned Europe, notwithstanding the new critical challenges America is confronted with in the Far East.

There is one more year to go before he completes his second mandate. In international politics, one year is a very short period of time. Most likely the transatlantic free trade agreement between the US and the EU – known as TTIP – wil not be completed before Obama´s departure. In many ways, the reasons for delay belong to the European side. But his name will certainly be associated to the effort to bring the two sides together in terms of free commerce. And shared commercial interests bring nations together and give them a mutual sense of confidence and security.

                                        

Istanbul, Europe and Merkel

Today´s terrorist attack in Istanbul must be unequivocally condemned. The victims and their families as well as the people of the city and of Turkey deserve our deepest sympathies and the strongest expression of our solidarity.

We should also profoundly worry as this act shows a very high level of strategic planning.

First, it targeted the core of the tourism industry in the emblematic city of Istanbul. It aimed at attacking the city´s image, the efficiency of the security services, who were in high alert, and the economy of the country. It is also an act of revenge against the government´s recent crackdown on Islamic State activities.

Second, it was clearly directed against German tourists above all. I do not think this is a coincidence. It was certainly a deliberate choice. The ultimate objective was to contribute to undermine Angela Merkel´s authority. The German Chancellor has been very responsive to the plight of the Syrian refugees. Such an approach is contrary to the message the Islamic State terrorists would like to put across the Muslim world. They wanted to show that the key European leader – and Europe for that matter – had a hostile approach to Muslim people.

They would also want to see Europe in crisis as a result of the mass arrival of refugees. Merkel´s leadership has prevented the potential crisis from materialising. In their view, she has to be seriously destabilised for Europe to lose direction and balance. 

War crimes in Syria

Madaya, the Syrian town that has been under siege for more than six months, surrounded by government troops, is a symbol. As are the towns of Foah and Kefraya, in the Northern part of the country. They have also endured a very long siege, this time by rebel groups that are fighting the regime of President al-Assad.

In Madaya, around 40,000 people have been without food and medicines supplies. In the two government-controlled towns, the numbers are close to 20,000. All three are not only a reminder of the ferocity of the conflict that is consuming Syria since 2012, of the widespread human suffering, they are also an example of the many war crimes that every side is committing.

Indeed, starving masses of civilians to death, as it is the case in these towns, is a war crime, as defined by international law. But after so many atrocities, we are losing sight of the very serious violations of the law of the war that keep occurring in the country. That´s certainly not a very good approach to justice. The peace process, when it happens, has to take these matters into account as well. 

Immigration as a big issue

One of the big questions on the EU´s table these days is about immigration. And the question is very clear. Very simple and pretty direct. Have we lost control of our immigration policies?

We have to be able to answer to the question without falling into stereotypes of any nature. 

Immigration issues are indeed like mines in a minefield. It is very common to explode on them. We therefore need to deal with the issues in a very careful way. But be aware as well that this is a field that needs to be cleared. Rather sooner than later, I should add.

Cologne raises many questions

Referring again to the New Year´s criminal incidents in Cologne, I think it is important to note that the total number of complaints filed with the police has now reached 379. This is an incredible high figure, but possibly lower than the actual number of cases. In these types of crimes some victims do prefer not to file a formal charge. In any case, the total figure registered so far clearly shows the magnitude of the problem. It leaves no room for a light treatment of the matter. This is more than just a law and order issue. As it is also bigger than just police failure to anticipate and later on to respond to the occurrences.

There are many questions that call for a frank and courageous answer. But also for serenity. The citizens have to be reassured. And the refugees have to see the authorities as strong enough and ready to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Lessons from Cologne

Regarding the sexual attacks against young women and thefts in Cologne, and also in some other European cities, I certainly wish to add my voice to those who have expressed shock. It is important to make it clear that such actions are criminal acts. Therefore, the perpetrators ought to be brought to face justice. The police work needs to be done without any outside interference. This is no time for political meddling in police affairs.

But it is time to draw some very serious political lessons from these abhorrent incidents. They call for a frank debate about the challenges of integrating in Europe large numbers of people coming from cultures that are very different from ours – and in some ways, unacceptable, because they are a negation of key human values Europeans take for granted. It is not an easy debate but has to be clearly discussed. 

Moving on Saudi Arabia, Iran and also the UN

In my last posting, I suggested the UN Secretary-General should dispatch without delay a Personal Envoy for political consultations with the Saudi and the Iranian governments. I should now recognise that Ban Ki-moon has indeed requested his Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, to travel to Riyadh and Teheran. The Envoy has now completed his discussions in Saudi Arabia and is now in Iran. I support the move. And I hope the big nations will do the same.

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs should also issue a supporting statement.

Now, on a matter that is somehow related to the above, I would add that de Mistura could be, later in the year, if there is progress on the peace talks regarding Syria, a name to be ultimately considered for the UN Secretary-General´s position. At this stage, two of the strongest candidates, UNESCO Director-General Irina Bokova and her compatriot Kristalina Georgieva, who is currently in Brussels as Vice-President of the EU Commission, are on a mutually assured destruction path. They are both high quality potential candidates, but their government in Bulgaria might decide in the end not to nominate either of them, for internal political reasons. Without nomination there is no chance of being chosen for the SG´s position.

Then, there are other names in Eastern Europe. But several of them might raise red flag objections in Moscow. And without Russia´s support, there is no room for success.

It might then be necessary to look for a last minute compromise. That´s when names like de Mistura could be put forward. If the Italian government makes the necessary move, of course. And that´s another unknown at this stage. 

Mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran

If I were the UN Secretary-General, I would immediately dispatch a Personal Envoy to consult with the authorities in Riyadh and Teheran, as well as with the Arab League and the key states in the region. The point is to take the initiative, at a very high level, to reduce the growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The SG should do it. And select the Envoy from a pool of respected former Heads of State or Prime Ministers, preferably from Asia.

He has the power and the status to initiate such a move. And he has to be seen as being extremely preoccupied with the aggravating situation in the Middle East. More so, because the new critical developments have a deep negative impact on the very timid and tentative peace processes that are about to start regarding Syria and Yemen. 

Warning Saudi Arabia

One should be very shocked by the mass executions carried out yesterday by the Saudi Arabian authorities. In the eyes of today´s modern world, these killings have every hallmark of excessive punishment. They belong to another epoch and to a primitive way of dealing with human beings. And in the case of the well-known Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, the decision to carry the death sentence on him seems to be based on sectarian grounds as well as on a radical, unacceptable approach to dissent. It is furthermore an extremely aggravating factor to the existing dramatic divisions that the Middle East region is already experiencing.

Those in the West that have publicly expressed their deepest concerns regarding the executions did the noble thing. The regime in Riyadh should receive from each one of its Western allies a strong message of warning and condemnation. That´s the best way to help them to understand that it is time to move away from an outdated and unacceptable way of conducting justice and implementing human rights. 

Happy New Year and bring confidence back

As we start the New Year, we also realise that one the great challenges ahead, as far as the European leaders are concerned, is to regain their credibility. They have to take into account that public opinion is a strategic variable in matters of politics. And they have to endeavour to get the voters ‘confidence back. That should be the main topic of discussion in the political circles as we get into the first working week of 2016.

In the meantime, and just as an example, let me refer that Le Figaro´s edition of today organised a poll on President Hollande´s New Year Message. The daily newspaper got close to 46 thousand responses to the question. 92% of the readers said the message was not convincing. That´s an incredible negative reaction. It´s true that most of those who read Le Figaro are rather on the opposite side of Hollande´s politics. But still, such a percentage is just too revealing: political confidence is one way avenue. Once lost, it is almost impossible to recover.

Just to complement, on this same day another survey has shown that 3 out of every 4 French citizens do not wish either Hollande or Sarkozy to run for the presidency in 2017.

2016 is indeed a very promising year on the leadership side of politics.