Sudan and South Sudan

For those who know well the key political players in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, it is difficult to believe those leaders are not playing some games in South Sudan. It is difficult to imagine they are keeping themselves at a prudent distance and not trying to strike some deals with Riek Machar, the head of the rebellion in the South.

The opposite is more likely.

For many reasons, of course, but above all for two main motives.

First, Khartoum is in the middle of a dramatic economic environment. There is very little foreign currency left, serious shortages of basic goods such as wheat, high unemployment and uncontrollable inflation. They need the oil revenues to keep flowing. And the wells are in the regions of South where Machar´s fighters are stronger. For Khartoum it makes then a lot of sense to be on Machar´s side.

Second, there are many in Sudan´s political establishment that have never accepted the independence of South Sudan. For them, Salva Kiir and his group in Juba are living reminders of the humiliation the North suffered. Whatever can be done to make them in South Sudan pay for such humiliation of the “Arabs” in the Sudan should not be missed. Creating havoc in the South is a good way of paying back.

Revenge is a way of life and a leading political approach in this part of world. 

UNPOL

What do you know about the work of the UN Police, UNPOL?

That was my question for today, at the request of a friend. And I spent part of the day writing about UNPOL. I called it notes about …as I thought these were just some brief comments about the subject matter. But it was no chore because I do consider the Police Division of the UN and their officers deployed in the field, about 13, 000 of them, as among the best support the United Nations can offer.

But I also noticed, once again, that the politicians and the public opinion are ill informed about the role of UNPOL in peacekeeping operations. Why?

Nairobi communiqué on South Sudan is biaised

It is clear that the crisis in South Sudan can only be resolved through political negotiations between the President´s camp and Riek Machar´s supporters. It cannot be imposed by communiqué, even if the communiqué is signed by a number of the region´s heads of state. In this context, today´s outcome of the Nairobi summit is a bit of a disappointment. And it is certainly not good enough in terms of the peace process. We need a different, more balanced and less formalist approach. 

South Sudan in an unstable region

The role being played by Ethiopia and Kenya in South Sudan deserves appreciation. The leaders of both countries have understood that the Sudanese crisis could rapidly unravel out of control and destroy the country´s fragile unity. It would also have a wider impact as it would contribute to destabilise some of the neighbouring countries as well.

Last year I wrote an essay on the impact of South Sudan´s emergency as a new unstable country on the region: Security and Stability. Reflections on the Impact of South Sudan on Regional Political Dynamics.

I think it is time to read it again. It is available on the NUPI website, the Norwegian Institute for International Relations, with the following link:
http://english.nupi.no/content/download/308614/1068211/version/1/file/NUPI+Report-SIP-7-Angelo-McGuinness.pdf

South Sudan calls for urgent political engagement

The UN Security Council approved an additional deployment of 6,000 troops to augment the peacekeeping presence of the mission in South Sudan, known by its initials as UNMISS.

This is basically a symbolic gesture with no immediate impact at a time of great urgency. The new soldiers are not available. The Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, has tried to re-deploy some of the peacekeepers actually employed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as well as in Liberia and Cote d´Ivoire. He has not been successful so far. It will be difficult to get that re-deployment as the Troop Contributing Countries will not approve such a move. Troops have been sent to country A and to transfer them to country B is always a lengthy process, and it is normally bound to fail.

The grave situation in South Sudan does require a different approach. It calls for political engagement with the leaders of the factions at war. That engagement has to be robust and bring together high level UN and bilateral envoys. It needs to be very impartial to be accepted by all the parties. And it has to happen now, it cannot wait.

That´s what we would expect the Security Council to decide. 

CAR and Chad, two neighbours

Since Saturday, two days ago, ten flights have taken place between Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, and N´Djaména, the Chadian capital. These air bridge is evacuating a large number of Chadian citizens, men, women and children, that for a long period had peacefully lived side by side with their neighbours, the Central Africans, but that are now being targeted by violent mobs. The CAR citizens now see the Chadians as Muslims and enemies.

This is indeed a very sad development.

There are still many Chadians camping at Bangui airport. Most of them will be taken out tomorrow.

As this is taking place, there is no real political process taking place to complement the military presence provided by the French and the African contingents. This basically means that the crisis is not being addressed. The soldiers cannot do more that establish some security pockets here and there. It is up to the politicians, to the regional and international leaders, to create a framework that should bring peace back. 

Crisis in South Sudan

South Sudan is in a mess. The crisis is deeper than many had thought. It has very strong tribal roots and that is the worst case scenario in a new country like South Sudan. The combatants are used to fight and it will very difficult to convince them that they have more to gain from a ceasefire and a political agreement than from being in charge of their part of the country. 

But the only way forward is to negotiate and to restore peace. A political arrangement is required. President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, the two leaders that matter in this crisis, need to compromise. They have to be told so and in very clear terms.

The UN mission needs to work closely with the neighbouring countries ‘governments in order to contribute to a political solution. It cannot accept to be side-lined. And it cannot run away from its political responsibilities.

  

2014 priorities

I have been asked to look into 2014. That´s the routine question that is always raised as we approach the New Year. And then we list a number of things that need to be looked at during the next twelve months.

I also did it this time. The list is long, notwithstanding the deliberate effort I made to keep it short and as focused as possible. I added, as a justification that we live in complex times. But that´s not a very convincing reason. We have to be clear about the critical issues, the ones that really make a difference and then give them priority attention.

Can we bring the list down to two or three key issues, in terms of EU internal policy, and another two or three, when it comes to external policy?

That would be the true test of strategic focus. 

Today´s EU Council made me think of a funeral wake

The EU Council meeting has just ended in Brussels. The atmosphere in the room was not good. There was more suspicion and rivalry around the table than willingness to address the key challenges. Some were just looking in the direction of Cameron and asking themselves why is it the UK has been accepted as a member? I am sure that one or two even recalled in their minds old man De Gaulle and is opposition to Britain´s membership, and might have thought he was a politician of vision.  Others might have looked in Samaras direction and wondered about Greece´s presence in the club. The same they thought could be said about Cyprus, Romania, Bulgaria, Portugal and some other countries. Then, there was Angela Merkel. I get the impression the leaders were just trying to spot any change in her posture and opinions, now that she has consolidated once again her authority within German politics.

And there were Van Rompuy and Barroso out there. They might have looked to some of the stronger and harsher leaders as two phantoms that are just dragging their feet in the EU corridors, as ghosts that wait for the village priest to come and exorcise them from the place. They are experiencing a painful end of term and everybody knows that. But they are not alone in their predicament. Baroness Ashton keeps them the company she can.

This is indeed a time of morose for the European leaders. Europe as a project is at standstill. 2014 will be a year without collective ambitions. Each country will try to keep afloat. And each leader will be just confined and paying attention to the domestic fires. The EU elections in May next year will come and go without capturing people´s attention.

We will see. 

Putin, our dear friend...

As we come closer to the New Year, I keep saying that one of the international concerns in 2014 should be about Putin´s Russia. The EU has to revise its strategy towards Moscow and move away from political confrontation.

Putin loves a good fight and will be very pleased to oblige. He will answer to fire with more fire. That will give him a chance to play on the Russian extreme nationalism, which is deeply entrenched in many segments of the population. He knows how to get political dividends from any foreign antagonism to the motherland.

I see him weaker when it comes to responding to cooperation proposals. We should look for chances to positively engage the Russians in some of the critical international challenges. That is the way forward in our relationship. And that will place Putin in a defensive position. 

Be clear about your priorities

The EU and the P5 – the five permanent countries in the Security Council of the UN – took long to recognize the strategic importance of the Sahel and Mali, specifically, for international peace and security.

They finally started looking at it as a priority geopolitical zone of major importance for the stability of a very wide area, North and South of the Sahara, including the EU states.

Now, the challenge is to keep the external partners focused on the region.

This was my key message at last week´s meeting of the 5 plus 5 Initiative, which brings together the Defence Ministers from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Malta with those from the Southern bank of the Mediterranean Sea, meaning Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and also Mauritania. 

To ignore the threats has also a cost

We keep talking about the cost of each peacekeeping operation, the funds required by proactive diplomacy and crisis prevention, the expenses related to military deployments in far-flung lands, etc.

But we never ask the other question: what would be the cost of inaction, what would be the financial, economic and human costs if we decide to remain out and passive?

There is indeed a cost if we help. However, sometimes that cost is just much smaller than the consequences of deciding to ignore.

This is certainly one example of a question that we have to start raising. 

Libya as a top prority for the French in 2014

The French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, stated yesterday in Monaco, at the World Policy Conference annual meeting, that Libya will be his country´s political priority for 2014 in the international arena.

This is a good choice. Libya is in a big mess and needs strong support to be able to re-establish law and order and control the many armed groups that are scattered throughout the country. If this happens it will have a very positive impact on the domestic democratization process as well as on the Sahel and North Africa regions.

The demise of Kaddafi open many Pandora boxes. It created major threats to peace and stability. It is now time to bring the genies back into their bottles and firmly lock them inside.

My hope is that France would be able to bring other countries on board in an alliance to re-build Libya. It is not easy, as EU states are more divided than ever and can´t agree on a common approach on North Africa. But within the EU there are enough governments that would accept that the Southern bank of the Mediterranean Sea is indeed a priority matter. 

EU needs to have a firmer approach towards Qatar and Saudi Arabia

The EU, and in particular the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, should spend more time engaging the North African countries on common security concerns. She should also actively engage the Saudis and the Qataris. Both have a lot of influence in North Africa and the neighbouring countries. And that influence is sometimes used to promote objectives and doctrine that play against stability in the region and have a direct impact of supporting radical views.

This type of proactive diplomatic action would achieve much greater results, if done in strategic way and from a firm position, than any EU military or police operation. Qatar and Saudi Arabia should be made to understand that they cannot play the fundamentalist card in the backyard of Europe.

We need to strategically engage with Algeria

EU has not paid enough attention to Algeria. Or, this country remains a key player in North Africa and has a critical influence on the Sahel and on the fight against radical armed groups. Furthermore, Algeria is pivotal if we want to promote greater cooperation in North Africa as well as a stronger partnership between the region and Southern Europe.

I very much advocate for a serious debate about engaging Algeria. That would clarify the lines of engagement between us and that country. And it would also make it clear that such link is important for our common interests. 

Reconciliation in Mali

On the day of Nelson Mandela Memorial, I found myself writing a few notes about reconciliation in a post-crisis political process. The point was to look at Mali’s situation and try to make some recommendations.

I thought of Mandela, and started by saying that enlightened leadership at the top level of national authority is fundamental. Then I added that that the other levels of political responsibility need to change their approaches towards the minorities as well and adapt a fair attitude that invites inclusiveness. Finally, we need to put in place mechanisms of appeasement at the community level, between neighbours, ethnic groups, local people. On a daily base, that´s where the proof of the pudding takes place. At the grassroots level.

Is all this happening at present in Mali?

My answer is very simple: I am afraid not.  

EU and Russia: the winter of a relationship

The political relations between the EU and Russia are going through a low point. And my advice is very simple: this is no time to make waves. Let the sleeping dog lie. This should be, on our side, the inspiring line for the next few months. Keep the engagement but keep it low intensity. Let´s be patient and distant.

However this should not prevent our side from working on a strategy for the future. Quietly, but firmly and with the right vision. 

Central Africa and the Sahel

I spent a bit of the day on the news and comments being produced about the dramatic events in the Central African Republic (CAR). And I end up the day very much amazed by the little knowledge people seem to have about the root causes of the current crisis. Then, I wonder how can the external players contribute to a finding a solution to a problem they do not fully understand?

I served in CAR from 1985 to 1989. Then, I came back in 2008 up to 2010, to be deeply involved with the unfolding events.

I vividly remember my discussions with President Bozizé. Including about the role of Muslim armed groups operating in the border areas with Darfur and South-Eastern Chad. And the growing tensions with pastoralists coming from the Sahel. CAR had obviously changed in its social set-up between my first and second stay in the region. And that change was not only a warning of the crisis in the making. It was, in many ways, one of vectors of much deeper and multifaceted transformation that is being imported from the arid lands of the North and moving into the Bantu areas of central tropical Africa. 

Madiba and the building of Africa´s self-confidence

Nelson Mandela achieved many great things. But there is one that is not fully understood by us in the Western world.

He gave the African people, men and women, self-confidence. People throughout Africa looked at Madiba, gained poise and dignity. Said differently, as they became aware of his example, they could finally believe that Africans can make it, transform their lives and critically contribute to changing the world for the better. 

Nelson Mandela

Nelson Mandela passed away this evening. He was an extraordinary man. A striking example of the often quoted statement: leadership matters and a great leader makes a historical difference.

Sometimes, when I thought and wrote about him, I was afraid that many of us are too small to fully grasp the amazing person Mandela was.

History has a very short and selective memory. But the history of our times will not forget Nelson Mandela. 

Relations with China require a EU common approach

Prime Minister Cameron´s visit to Beijing reminds me that there is no EU coherent policy regarding the relations with China.

It is true that there was a recent – about two weeks ago – summit meeting between Van Rompuy and Barroso, on the European side, and the new leadership of China. But it was more of an empty formality than an exercise on strategy. The Chinese play the game and seem to be very interested in a stronger relationship with the EU. But in fact, they are much more interested in their bilateral relations with a small handful of European countries. They know that national sovereignty feelings are coming back within Europe and they understand that better than the concept of a lose community of shared interests.

But the Chinese are difficult and complex parties to any agreement. They have a very strategic and subtle view of international partnerships, particularly with the West. That approach cannot be matched by a piecemeal approach, on our side, by a short-sighted view of each country´s interests. More. The Chinese leaders will take advantage of the competition that is now shaping the relations among the EU member states.

Are we poets or just fools?

EU has chosen the path of confrontation with Russia, when it comes to Eastern Neighbourhood policy. 

Politics is of course about choices. 

It is also about having a clear strategy, once the choices have been made. 

Choices without the appropriate strategy are just empty wishes. They belong to the realm of either the poets or the fools. 

Piracy in West African waters

Again on West Africa, this time on piracy: the Gulf of Guinea has experienced this year 30 sea incidents. In two cases, the local pirates have managed to capture the ships.

 Figures show that the Gulf has had more incidents this year than the Somalia waters -20 cases so far in that part of the Indian Ocean.  It is time to start discussing some big international operation in West Africa, even if its waters are no as vital as the East Africa ones for world trade. If the issue is not addressed soon the economies of the coastal states will be seriously impacted by the growing piracy. And soon we might even see an attack against one of the offshore oil platforms, either in Nigeria or in Ghana.

Radical Islam in West Africa

Kenema is a provincial head town in the South-Eastern region of Sierra Leone. Most of its residents are Muslims, as it is the case in several parts of the country. On 3 November 2013 the people there came to the streets and threw stones at the houses of local men they consider being religious extremists. They call them Al-Shabaab, because they have long beards, they belong to a strict sect of the Islamist faith and their wives are fully covered. And above all, they accuse them of being a hothouse for breeding future terrorists. The Sierra Leone Police had to intervene to bring some tranquillity back to Kenema.

This is new in Sierra Leone. But it is not unique to that West African country. In the recent years, one has seen an expansion of radical approaches to religious practice in different corners of West Africa. They cannot be linked to any violent action. However, they show that the radical preachers trained in Saudi Arabia for many years are now having an impact of the way these traditional communities see Islam.