Germany and the peacekeeping operations

Joachim Glauck, the German President, in his speech at the opening of the Munich Security Conference, expressed the view that his country should be more involved in multinational peacekeeping operations. 

Such position is most welcome.

Germany has been the noticeable absent in many of the key military deployments authorised by the UN. Besides Afghanistan and Kosovo, the Berlin leadership, particularly Angela Merkel, says automatically no to any suggestion their armed forces should be part and parcel of EU and UN operations. They have said no to Mali, to Central African Republic, just to mention recent examples. That´s not what one should expect of a key country like Germany. Being economically strong gives them the responsibility to be more engaged in world affairs.

Hollande has cut short the socialist ambitions

The West European socialists, on the centre-left, the social-democrat kind of socialists, feel these days very betrayed by François Hollande. Based on his press conference of 14 January, they think he has changed course and is basically courting the employers. For them, Hollande is now more interested in making it easier for the capitalists to invest than in matters such as employment, public investment, and protecting the social rights of the workers.

There is disappointment in the air, within the socialist circles.

And also the fear that they will lose quite a number of seats in the May European Parliament elections.

The fact of the matter is that the European socialist movement has lost the initiative. It has not be able to come up with a coherent and appealing body of ideas that could be seen as a credible alternative to the Right.

Why is it?

Munich is far away from Africa

The 2014 Munich Security Conference (MSC) will open this Friday. With time, the MSC has become an important and very high profile annual event. If you are somebody in the area of international security, you better be there.

This year´s agenda has somehow surprised me. There is no session on Africa, not even on the Sahel. Cyber issues, energy, intelligence, the Middle East, in particular Syria, Central and Eastern Europe, with a special session on Kosovo, all that is on the table, during the three-day meeting. But Africa? Out of order…

How can we explain this omission?

Critical peace issues

I had a long discussion today about the current impact of the UN missions on peace and security. It all started with a silent crisis, Guinea-Bissau. Nobody talks about that country and the lasting disaster that has been around for so long. That is a DPA-led mission, meaning, the UN department of Political Affairs has the responsibility to guide the UN presence on the ground and report to the Security Council on a regular basis. Then, we looked at Cote d´Ivoire, where we have had a peacekeeping operation for quite some time. There is very little progress, I would say in a very diplomatic language, as far as domestic reconciliation is concerned. Next to it there is a UN peacekeeping presence in Liberia. The country has been struggling to rebuild itself, after many years of civil war and wanton destruction. There are now some serious issues of governance. Are we addressing them?

And we moved on, to the Central African Republic, South Sudan and Mali, not to mention the work of the UN missions in Libya and elsewhere. And the same question came out a number of times? Are we addressing the key issues?

The point is very simple. In all these situations, conflicts can come back, sooner or later, if we are not able to deal with the critical causes of instability. And in some cases, it is even worse. We are simply not able to help the countries to move out of the swamp. 

Today´s Egypt

I have talked to someone who knows Egypt well. And I came to the conclusion that any black-and-white approach to the current situation in the country would be a serious mistake. Egypt is a very fragile society, with many divisions and fault lines. The military offer a bit of a unifying platform. But many in the country think that their future is going backwards. And unfortunately, we can expect a long period of instability. The military response to instability is authoritarianism. Many people will resent it. But the region cannot afford a chaotic Egypt. Where to strike the balance?

EU and Russia: every summit meeting counts

The next EU-Russia Summit is taking place on Tuesday, 28 January, in Brussels. It will be a very short meeting. Initially thought to last for two days, it is now planned for three hours. That says a lot about the state of mind of the leaders, on both sides of the table. But it is also related to the fact that the current EU bosses are at the end of their mandates. Later in the year all the key European institutions will be headed by new people.

It would be however a mistake to take this summit as a mere formality. There are important issues on the table, from trade to visa requirements, from Ukraine to the Transnistria break-away region of Moldova. The Europeans should find a balance between pushing forward what is positive and can strengthen the relationship and stating the key principles they believe are important to ensure the full respect for international law and human rights. 

Yanukovych´s desperate move

President Yanukovych of Ukraine is now blinking. The offer he made, without proper negotiations, to take one of the opposition leaders as Prime Minister is perceived by many as a losing gesture. It will not contribute to a durable solution. People, those who are on the streets in Kiev and in the provincial head towns, want the President to go. They must feel tonight they are closer to achieve it. 

EU and Ukraine: what´s next?

The Ukrainian situation remains at the top of the EU agenda. It is true that the crisis keeps widening. But there is another major reason. Brussels is preparing itself for the next summit meeting with Russia, scheduled for 28 January. And the Europeans are struggling to find a common and effective position on Ukraine to bring to the summit table. The countries to the East of EU are pushing for a very strong statement on Ukraine. They think that will contain Russia´s European ambitions. Other countries, lead by Germany, believe that trade issues are more important than the Ukrainian fate.

In the meantime, Baroness Ashton is getting ready to travel to Kiev. She will bring a message about human rights and democracy. That´s not bad. But it is not enough to unlock the current impasse between Yanukovych and the opposition. 

Ukrainian escalation

We are witnessing a serious escalation of the Ukrainian crisis. There are good reasons to be very worried.

It is now impossible to remain silent and inactive. There is a need to build bridges between the two sides.

It is true that no-one on either side of the divide seems interested in dialogue. But the outside world has to tell them that there is no other way out of the current dangerous situation. 

We need a new approach to EU external military deployments

The decision to deploy an EU brigade to Bangui –EUFOR RCA – has now been taken. The level of ambition and the duration of this mission are very limited, at best 6 months, and just to protect the international airport.

But that´s not my point today.

The decision has shown once more that the EU has to adopt a different model to finance this type of missions. They cannot be financed by the participating countries. Some countries would be ready to supply the soldiers and the logistical military support but they can´t afford the costs. Portugal is just one those countries. Lisbon would be willing to deploy but the defence budget for 2014 cannot pay for it. This means the Portuguese will stay away.

These missions should be funded from a common EU budget. Each member state should contribute to the annual replenishment of that fund in accordance with their GDP per capita. This is the only way to approach in more proactive way the external peace keeping operations of the EU. If it is not adopted, we will continue to see a contradiction between the decision to assist counties in crisis and the effective deployment of a credible force. The foreign ministers will taken the decision but the soldiers will not reach the ground on time and in sufficient numbers.

 And Germany, among others, will never be part of any effort of this type. Not even by contributing a few euros. 

Iran and Syria

Throughout the day there was a lot of controversy about Iran´s participation in the Geneva II talks on Syria, scheduled for Wednesday. The key Western powers looked at Secretary-general Ban´s decision to invite Tehran as a serious blunder. And he got quite a number of calls to change his mind, which he did. The invitation was withdrawn under the pretext that Tehran had not endorsed the transitional framework that came out of Geneva I.

Beyond this tangle, the point the SG was trying to make is very simple and clear. Iran has to be part of the solution. The Syrian crisis has many hands in it. One of them is at the end of the long arm that connects Assad with the Iranian leaders. If the other hands are in the kitchen, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, there is no reason to bar Iran. A negotiation is not just to be held between friends. It should bring together adversaries and enemies. 

Davos 2014

Davos is back this week. The World Economic Forum will discuss, during a few days, how to change to the planet. Some big names from the business will meet again lesser names from the politics. The wheels of networking will get their required dose of grease.

But the meeting itself has lost some of the shine of the past. There are now too many competing initiatives.

In the end, the great and the powerful will go back to their usual occupations. And the world might not have noticed that on the top of a Swiss mountain some beautiful people have spent a few nice days debating how to change it.

The world remains, as we can see, a very ungrateful place.

Karzai is making it impossible

Yesterday’s suicide attack against a well-known Kabul restaurant, which killed so many people and also destroyed the little flame of normalcy that the establishment symbolised, reminds all of us that President Karzai has yet to move on the security cooperation agreement with the US.

That agreement is the indispensable framework for any future assistance to Afghanistan after the departure of ISAF, at the end of this year. It was approved by the Loya Jirga (great assembly of elders and local traditional chiefs) in November 2013. Hamid Karzai could have signed it soon after. He has not done it and the delay is making it almost impossible to ensure a proper transition to the period post-ISAF. This will have a major impact on the continuation of key development projects. International staff will be drastically reduced if the security conditions are not properly guaranteed.

What are Karzai´s motives?  

Kiir should take a bold political initiative

Salva Kiir, the President of South Sudan, has managed to collect the support of the regional leaders. But the crisis is deepening. The ceasefire discussions in Addis Ababa are not making any visible progress. The humanitarian situation is worsening.

In this deteriorating context,  the international community should tell President Kiir that the support he is getting from the region should encourage him to seek a political solution. Because of the backing he is receiving from his neighbours he is more than anybody else in a stronger position when it comes to taking the political initiative. He should understand that the region and the international community can only see an all-inclusive political agreement as the way forward for sustainable peace and nation building in South Sudan. Anything else, including the military option, is just a recipe for further collapse and human misery. 

The hammer and the security challenges in CAR

My column of today in the Portuguese general affairs weekly magazine Visão is about the deployment of foreign troops in the Central African Republic (CAR). My point is basically that the international community is sending soldiers there in very limited numbers and then asking them to play law and order roles in the midst of a widespread civilian chaos. Not only the deployed military are insufficient in numbers for securing such a vast country, they are also called to do tasks that police and gendarmerie are best suited to implement. This is a major source of frustration for the soldiers. And they see no end to it, as there is no plan to bring formed police units from outside the country, no international police advisors, and no trainers to help the CAR authorities to re-establish their own security institutions. Again, the international community is making use of a hammer when the tools required are quite different. 

Youth employment

There is some optimism in the EU when it comes to the 2014 economics forecast. The macro indicators seem to be encouraging, including for countries such as Spain and Portugal. But the key issue continues to be about job creation. And, frankly, there is again very little debate about this matter. The very few references made here and there are about the high costs of labour. But that´s the wrong approach to the question. The point is a different one: how well are we preparing our youth for tomorrow´s economic challenges?  It is time to initiate the discussion on this. 

UNPOL

I just published today in Belgium the following text in French about the UN Police in peacekeeping operations:

LES OFFICIERS DE POLICE DES NATIONS UNIES (UNPOL), DE PLUS EN PLUS DEMANDES

Victor Angelo *

Quand on entend parler des « bérets bleus » de l´ONU, on pense tout de suite aux contingents militaires que l´on trouve déployés dans plusieurs pays. En effet, pour le citoyen européen l´image du maintien de la paix est avant tout associé à des soldats en patrouille dans des véhicules marqués avec les lettres UN. Je dirais que même nos politiciens ont tendance à réduire le maintien de la paix à ce cliché. Or, il y a une autre catégorie de personnel qui s´habille aussi en uniforme et porte le béret bleu : les officiers de Police des Nations Unies, connus actuellement sous la désignation d´UNPOL.

Il est vrai qu´il y a beaucoup plus de militaires dans l´ensemble des opérations de paix qui sont actuellement sur le terrain: on compte au sein des 16 missions en cours un peu plus de 83 000 soldats en comparaison avec 13 000 policiers. Les états membres de l´ONU trouvent plus facilement des contingents militaires « disponibles pour déploiement » que des agents de police.

Cependant, on a connu ces dernières années une progression assez significative du nombre de policiers des Nations Unies. La croissance de la demande en conseillers et observateurs de police et en unités formées de policiers (groupements du type « gendarmerie ») s´explique par l´arrivée d´une nouvelle génération de mandats des missions de paix de l´ONU et aussi par des changements au niveau des types de menaces sécuritaires.

Depuis quelques années,  le Conseil de Sécurité a décidé de mettre davantage l´accent sur des questions institutionnelles et de reconstruction de l´administration de l´État. Par la suite, nous avons assisté à l´approbation de mandats qui sont inspirés par la préoccupation de résoudre les causes profondes d´instabilité dans les pays qui ont vécu des crises nationales profondes. Cela comprend des réformes du secteur de la justice et de la sécurité des citoyens. Et dans ce contexte, l´expertise que les conseillers de police des Nations Unies peuvent apporter est très appréciée. Ainsi, il y a de plus en plus d´histoires de succès de réforme des forces nationales de police qui sont directement liées au travail de l´UNPOL.

Il a fallu aussi répondre aux changements de circonstances. Les défis sécuritaires auxquels il faut faire face aujourd´hui exigent souvent une réponse qu´on trouve dans le rayon des compétences des services de police. Répondre à ces menaces avec des forces militaires s´est avéré – même s´il a fallu du temps pour le comprendre et si pour certains cela n´est pas encore tout à fait évident – trop cher et, avant tout, peu efficace. Le banditisme violent, les organisations criminelles transnationales, les réseaux terroristes, le renforcement de la sécurité interne, le maintien de l´ordre public face à des manifestations de masse à tendance radicale, le renseignement, enfin, toutes ces dimensions requièrent le renforcement des capacités nationales de police. Les conseils dispensés par les policiers en béret bleu sont essentiels pour remettre sur pied des capacités qui ont été souvent détruites suite aux conflits dans les pays en crise. À cela s´ajoutent les préoccupations relatives à la protection des populations civiles vulnérables, en particulier les femmes et les enfants, des déplacés internes et des réfugiés. De plus en plus, la protection de ces populations demande une intervention coordonnée entre les militaires et les policiers et un rééquilibrage des rôles joués par les uns et les autres.

La Division de Police des Nations Unies, qui fait partie du Département des Opérations du Maintien de la Paix, et qui dirige le travail des UNPOLs sur le terrain, s´est beaucoup renforcée depuis quelques années, pour répondre aux nouvelles tâches. Elle est actuellement, à mon avis, parmi les services les plus performants de l´ONU. Mais il y a encore du pain sur la planche.  Un des objectifs est d´augmenter le pourcentage de femmes au service des missions UNPOL. Actuellement, le nombre d´agents féminins ne dépasse guère les 10%. L´intention est d´arriver dans les prochaines années à 20%. Entretemps, il faut noter que pour la première fois un détachement UNPOL –celui au Darfour dans le cadre de l´UNAMID, qui est composé de 5 000 agents de Police des Nations Unies – est commandé par une femme.

 Outre le défi du gendre, il faudra augmenter la participation des pays développés dans les activités UNPOL. Le commandant général d´UNPOL, qu´on désigne comme « UN Police Adviser »,  est un officier venu de la police allemande. Mais la contribution des états européens reste étonnamment faible. L´Allemagne, le pays d´origine du Police Adviser, n´a que 15 officiers détachés dans toutes les missions des Nations Unies. La France est le plus grand contributeur parmi les états membres de l´UE, ce qui n´est pas surprenant en tenant compte des missions de l´ONU en Côte d´Ivoire et au Mali. L´apport français reste modeste malgré tout: 52 policiers et gendarmes. En tout cas, c´est plus que les Pays-Bas (21), la Suède (31) et surtout que la Belgique qui, selon les données disponibles, n´a qu’un seul policier en détachement aux Nations Unies. Au fait, même la « neutre » Suisse fait mieux : 6. Cela devrait nous interpeller.    

*Ancien Représentant spécial du Secrétaire-général de l´ONU (DPKO) ; 32 ans de service aux Nations Unies. 

Peace building questions

I have been asked to produce off-the-cuff a list of key peace building concerns. This is what a put together:

1.   Consolidating peace: Is there a set of indicators that show the foundations of sustainable peace have been built?

2.   How to link local peace building initiatives with national policies?

3.   What makes a conflict a forgotten one?

4.   Reviewing best electoral practices that have contributed to peace consolidation and nation building.

5.   The reform of the National Police: a case study that can be considered best practice.

6.   Women´s contribution to peace building: telling the story.

7.   Peace and reconciliation: lessons learned from country A or B.

8.   Business and peace: what to expect from national business associations.

9.   Fighting corruption: review of best practices.

10.  Strengthening the judiciary: what are constraints in a post-conflict situation?

11.  Nation building in a multi-ethnic context: which lessons have we learned?

12.  What role should we expect from regional leaders in resolving conflict in a neighbouring country?

Some of these questions have been answered to. The issue is to share with the readers what I thought should be considered priority questions on peace building at the present stage. 

The Central African Republic: the coming days can change the situation.

I spent a good deal of the day looking at the new developments in the Central Africa Republic. And I came to the conclusion that the departure from power of Michel Djotodia, the Interim President that rode the March rebellion and subsequently lost control of its own allied rebel forces, the Seleka combatants, opens a window of opportunity for security and reconciliation. The sooner the new Interim President is chosen by the assembly of representatives the better.

Then, the partners of the country should provide enough resources for him to be able to rebuild the national security forces and bring law and order back. This is where the priority should lie. 

On Ariel Sharon´s demise

The reactions in the Middle East to Ariel Sharon´s death are a bitter reminder of the profound hatred and fears that define the relations between the Jews and the Arabs.

In trying to find a durable solution, acceptable to both communities, it will be much easier to address the fears than the hatred. One should keep that in mind and negotiated an agreement that keeps both sides reasonable sure of their safety and security. 

Hollande´s serial mistakes

Today President François Hollande was again on the news and once more for the wrong reasons.

This time, a gossip magazine writes about a covert liaison the President has with a young woman, in betrayal of his official relationship with the woman that is considered the de facto First Lady of France. And a number of pictures go with this revelation.

This kind of behaviour shows poor political judgement. How could he believe the liaison would remain secret? He, like everybody else, can change his mind and look for love elsewhere. But when you are the president of a country you do that in a clear and open way. You do not behave like a small boy, trying to hide away from the public eye. You do not create the conditions for the media, your wife and your political allies to catch you with the pants down. And also for your adversaries to make ridicule of you.

And when they catch you, you rise to the challenge. You accept the reality. You do not invoke, if you are the leader of a country, the right to make political mistakes in private.

Once more, François Hollande has shown he is major political disappointment.

And again he went down in the credibility ladder. 

Portugal´s financial image has improved

Portugal´s international financial image got a boost today. The government managed to sell 5-year sovereign debt paper for a total amount of 3,5 billion euros at a very favourable rate: 4,657%.

The point is now to be able to attract the foreign investors’ interest to put money into the real economy. The Portuguese entrepreneurs have been doing well and exports have increased during 2013. But that´s is not enough. The country needs major injections of capital into the productive sectors. And that can only happen if the govern manages to capitalise on the image of the country and show Portugal as a safe investment destination. 

EU renewal

Greece has just taken the presidency of the EU for the first semester of this year. It is their turn, as the rules go.

And it is a good coincidence that we have Europe´s crisis case in charge.

I hope the Greeks will take advantage of the leadership position and make use of it to bring the South and the North of Europe closer. Greece should promote a new understanding of the relations and partnerships within the EU. Fight the divide and encourage cooperation. 

This would be their unique contribution to the next six months. 

Can they do it? 

Erdogan´s arrogance

Where is Erdogan´s Turkey going to? This is the question we hear these days in Brussels. And it is a true question in the sense that nobody can predict, at this stage, what will be the reaction of the Police, the Judiciary, the Armed Forces and above all, the people´s response to the crisis that is gaining strength.

Is Erdogan fighting for his political survival? Or is he just so politically oblivious, after many years of power, that he can´t see that the only future for Turkey is democracy and tolerance? 

EU´s dream

The EU project needs revitalization. How can we achieve it at a time when the political leaders ‘credibility is so low?

The renewal cannot be based on fear. It has to be about hope and trust on a better common future.

 If I had money and power I would launch a major pan-European initiative to bring Europe back to the centre of the political debate. The point would be to give our common project new wings and release the citizens’ dreams of more harmonious Union. 

And this would be the time to do it, before the May elections for the European Parliament. 

Central African Republic: the forgotten crisis

When it comes to political decisions, the Central African Republic remains outside the main radar screens, notwithstanding all the dramatic news about the civil unrest in the country. France is on it alone, playing a complex role that has more to do with gendarmerie and police tasks than with military assignments. But what is on the ground is a military expeditionary force. That is feeling more and more frustrated by the type of challenges they have to face in Bangui, and also because they are so stuck in the capital city that they can´t respond to the problems elsewhere in the country.

This French force should be rapidly complemented by a comprehensive peacekeeping operation, under the overall leadership of the UN. That is not going to happen any time soon. The African Union is very reluctant when it comes to accepting a UN force. They are still convinced, I want to believe, that they will be able to deploy an AU mission and take care of the security situation. It is unrealistic as an approach. The African Union is no measure to put together the required integrated force. They should be confronted with such truth. And they should also cease to play along the interests of the Chadian President, Idriss Déby, who seems to be the key African opponent to a UN presence.

The US is also against a UN mission in CAR. They base their position on the fact that such mission would carry additional financial costs to Washington. And they do not want to put more money, at this stage, on UN peacekeeping operations. OK, I can understand the costs issue. That could be sorted out by drawing down the missions in Haiti, Cote d´Ivoire and Liberia at a much faster pace. These are missions that have long ago achieved their key goals and should only be continued with a much smaller field presence.

By the way, the approval of additional forces in South Sudan, which has a very high budget tag, was accepted by Washington in a matter of hours…

That´s why I say that CAR is the forgotten crisis. It has always been like that. 

Erdogan´s undemocratic path

We should be very worried in view of the recent developments in Turkey. And today we should be even more apprehensive. Erdogan´s comments against the judiciary do not augur well. They show he believes that politics is above the rule of law. A leader cannot claim he has a popular mandate that allows him to go beyond the bounds of the constitution and the laws of the land.

 Erdogan has to respect the democratic rules and Turkey´s legal system. If he doesn’t, where is the country going to?

Europe and the US have not been brave enough to have a proper political dialogue with Erdogan. They remained silent when he did what he did to the military establishment. And they are directionless again, as the democracy is more and more at stake in Turkey. 

The men in Addis Ababa

The Sheraton Hotel in Addis Ababa houses one the best Indian restaurants in East Africa. But its name is not necessarily associated with the quality of that excellent eating place. The hotel is above all known for its luxury environment and high cost accommodation.

Today the world could see some TV images taken at the hotel entrance, as the delegates that will negotiate the South Sudan´s peace agreement gathered for a marathon of discussions. These were tough men in soft set-up. Men of power in a setting of wealth and indulgence.

After that, we could watch a series of dramatic pictures taken outside Bor. The contrast could not be wider. These images gave us a quick synopsis of the suffering the people are going through. In this case, it was soft people, powerless men, women and children, in a setting of great dispossession. Their future is being played at the Addis Sheraton. But can we trust the players?

Peace and security in the Middle East

The Middle East remains a region deeply unstable. And the UN Secucity Council, which has the principle responsibility for international peace and security, is clearly unable to play a constructive role in the region. What we see, at the beginning of this New Year, is a serious deterioration of the internal security situation in Iraq and Lebanon. Both countries share border lines with Syria and this makes them part of a larger system of instability and conflict in critical part of the world.

If we look beyond these three states, we will see fragile situations in several neighbouring countries. To the East, that corridor of fragility includes Afghanistan and Pakistan. Closer to Syria, I would not underestimate the potential for trouble that exists in countries like Jordan, Bahrain, and even in Turkey. Then, we have Yemen and Egypt, Libya and the Arab states of North Africa.

In this context, 2014 will be a busy year for all those who care about security, protection of civilians and human rights issues in the larger Middle East region.