The narrative about peace operations should be seriously improved

The questions and the debate that followed my presentation on UN peace operations – yesterday´s post was about the public address I delivered on 28 April on the subject – have once again shown the need for a greater investment on a positive narrative on peacekeeping. It was clear that even a better educated audience has a biased perception about the mandates and the role of the UN in peacekeeping and peace building. I have actually been confronted with the same situation in the exercises I do with senior officers from my part of the world. The misinformation and misunderstandings are just too many. They have, obviously, an impact on the way the European politicians see the participation of their forces in UN operations. They make it more difficult for people like me to advocate for a stronger EU commitment to military and police missions led by the UN.

There are a number of things the UN and the supporters of international solidarity should do better in the field of peace and security. For sure one of them has to do with messaging. If they cannot win the narrative they will not be able to get more support. 

My keynote address on UN peace operations

Yesterday I delivered a public talk on the reform on the UN peace operations. It was organised by GRIP (Group for Research and Information on Peace and Security), an independent Brussels-based think tank, the APNU (Association pour les Nations Unies de Belgique) and the University of Louvain-la-Neuve. It took place at the headquarters of Wallonie-Bruxelles Internationale and attracted quite a large audience. 

The issue is very much a current one as we come close to know what the panel established at the end of October 2014 by the UN Secretary-General will propose as reforms. This panel is mandated to reflect on sharpening the UN response to peace challenges. Its composition reflects, above all, two things: field experience and a geopolitical balancing act by the Secretary-general.

I think I should share with my readers the notes that guided my presentation, notwithstanding the fact they are written in the French language.

Please find them below.

Conférence du 28 Avril 2015

Mon intervention est inspirée

1.         Résolution pacifique des conflits : négociations, accords de paix, équilibre entre des intérêts divergents ; c´est la seule solution durable

2.         La politique d´abord, avant l´utilisation de la force

3.         La nécessité de renforcer les capacités des Nations Unies en matière de résolution de conflits, y compris une meilleure intégration des efforts de DPA, DPKO et de la PBC ; au fait, les opérations de paix sont avant tout un instrument politique

4.         La valeur de la solidarité entre les états, particulièrement quand il s´agit des états plus fragiles, qui sont confrontés avec des menaces terroristes ou de criminalité organisée à une échelle régionale ou internationale

5.         Le Panel de Haut Niveau, établi à la fin Octobre 2014 est une bonne décision. Beaucoup de choses ont changé depuis le Rapport Brahimi de 2000

Le Rapport du Panel va certainement susciter une série de débats

6.         L´acceptation du rôle du Conseil de Sécurité, malgré toutes les critiques que l´on puisse faire au regard de sa composition ; une vieille question : quand je suis arrivé à NY en Janvier 1998 le Japon…

Le Conseil de Sécurité:

Positif:

1.         Source de légitimité; accepté para les Étas comme l´autorité ultime

2.         Tous les états souhaitent l´accord du SC

3.         SC accorde une attention assez significative aux Opérations de Paix

4.         Expérience en la matière

5.         Ses décisions engagent des ressources financières

6.         Capable de forcer les Agences, Fonds et Programmes à travailler ensemble

  

Négatif

1.         Divisé; primauté des intérêts géopolitiques des P5 par rapport à la résolution des crises; impossibilité de décider sur les grandes crises ; divisions se sont aggravées avec la crise en Libye en 2011

2.         Incapable de donner une direction stratégique au Secrétariat et aux missions; réactif et superficiel ; jaloux des capacités et des prérogatives du Secrétariat

3.         Le concept de mission intégrée n´a jamais été bien compris donnant lieu à des mandats trop vastes

4.         Reste figé dans une perspective d´état national ; tendance à voir tout à partir de la perspective des gouvernements nationaux

5.         Pas vraiment préparé pour répondre aux défis posés par les acteurs non-étatiques

6.         Beaucoup plus intéressé par le Maintien de la Paix que par les Missions Politiques ou de  Peace Building ; les Missions de Maintien de la Paix coutent beaucoup d´argent, ont des militaires et des policiers, sont beaucoup plus « intéressantes »

7.         Les liens entre Maintien de la Paix et Peace Building ne sont pas toujours clairs ; des missions de Peace Building ont été approuvées quand on voulait fermer une mission DPKO ou alors quand on ne voulait pas engager des nouvelles dépenses

8.         Glissement en matière de respect pour les principes fondamentaux des opérations de paix ; préférence des P3 pour des opérations robustes

Les principes fondamentaux du Maintien de la Paix sont de plus en plus mis en cause par les nouvelles façons de maintenir la paix

•          Consentement des Parties

•          Impartialité

•          Non recours à la force (sauf en cas de légitime défense ou de défense du mandat)

Ces dernières années, le CS a introduit le concept de Maintien de la Paix Robuste

•          Le maintien de la paix robuste implique l’emploi de la force au niveau tactique avec    l’autorisation du Conseil de sécurité et le consentement du pays hôte et/ou des principales parties au conflit.

Doit-on revenir aux principes ?

Faut-il laisser le SC décider quand les missions peuvent aller au-delà des principes ? Et dans ce cas, les principes servent à quoi ?

Il faut certainement bien faire la distinction entre Opérations Offensives (Enforcement) et Opérations d´Appui à un processus de paix, à un processus politique

A Mon avis :

•          Les Opérations Offensives devraient être conduites par des Coalitions de Forces avec un mandat du SC 

Ou

•          Par des Organisations Régionales (AU ; NATO ; EU ; CSTO ; etc)

Mais …   Toujours avec un mandat qui a été approuvé par le CS

Aussi il faudrait utiliser les organisations régionales comme

            Entry forces : premières forces sur le terrain en attendant le déploiement ONU

            En cas d´urgence -  POC et atrocités ; pour des raisons d´urgence humanitaire

           

Quelques commentaires au niveau du Secrétariat des NU

o          UN a beaucoup appris depuis 2000 –Rapport Brahimi

            Je le dis souvent aux militaires de l´OTAN

o          UN a surtout beaucoup évolué ces dernières années depuis 2010 en matière de:

                      Logistiques  (Entebbe, Brindisi et Valence)

                      Coopération entre les missions

                      Police

o          Mais DPKO, DPA et PBSO doivent approfondir la coopération entre eux.

o          PBSO devrait être intégré dans DPA ou dans DPKO ; ma préféence serait une intégration dans DPKO

o          Département de Management doit revoir la procédure et autoriser les agences des NU à réaliser des activités, contre remboursement, pour les missions sur le terrain

o          Aussi, il est nécessaire d´établir de  meilleurs liens entre les missions de paix et PNUD et UN Office on Drugs and Crime

o          UN Secrétariat doit aussi être plus courageux, plus direct et ne pas hésiter quand il s´agit de faire des recommandations au SC

United States

US Personnel in DPKO Missions end of March 2015 : 64 UNPOL   44 MIL      ( RUSSIA   UNPOL 24   MIL 46)

African Peacekeeping Rapid Response Partnership:  Annoncée par le Président Obama en Aout 2014 

$110 millions par année entre 3 – 5 ans

6 pays

            Ethiopie

            Ghana

            Rwanda

            Sénégal

            Tanzanie

            Ouganda

US préfèrent une approche par pays ; des pays prioritaires

Autres travaillent directement avec UA comme par ex : EU, Norvège

African Standby Force

Le role croissant des RECs (Africa´s Regional Economic Communities)

La capacité des forces militaires africaines et les standards des NU

European Union :

Personnel in DPKO missions end of March 2015:  UNPOL 214  5583 MIL

A joué un rôle important au Tchad, au Congo et au Mali

Devrait cependant s´engagé davantage aux Nations Unies ; à mon avis, l´expérience (bonne et moins bonne) gagnée avec MINUSMA devrait être considérée comme une opportunité pour identifier ce qui doit être modifié au niveau des NU et permettre une plus grande participation des pays EU

2011  “Plan of Action to Enhance EU CSDP Support to UN Peacekeeping”

Parlements et Opinion Publique EU doivent être plus sensibilisés.

L’opinion publique est aujourd´hui une variable stratégique

UE doit contribuer avec plus de :

            Militaires ; différence de préparation, de méthodes de travail et des taux de remboursement

            Police

            Administrateurs civils

Aider certains pays à développer leurs capacités de sécurité. 

EU African Peace Initiative : The three main strands of action are capacity building, peace support operations and the development of an early response mechanism.

Militaire, gendarmerie et surtout police

La police est très souvent le parent le plus pauvre dans les pays en crise.

            En conclusion :

•          Tout peut se résumer à des questions de crédibilité, de capacité de réponse et de temps; il faut savoir gérer les attentes, obtenir des résultats et sortir à temps.

•          Réforme ou marginalisation ? Plutôt le risque de réforme et marginalisation.

Il y a une volonté de réforme, il y aura des améliorations, mais il y a ausssi les contradictions au sein de la communauté internationale et une tradition de timidité au Sécrétariat.

Les NU seront très occupées, il y aura une demande continue pour des opérations de paix, mais le risque est de devoir traiter seulement des conflits d´intérêt local, « les conflits des pauvres ». 

Nepal´s tragedy calls for sustained support

Nepal´s earthquake and its aftershocks have caused a major humanitarian disaster. I feel extremely sorry for the Nepalese people and all those who have been directed impacted by the catastrophe.

A number of rescue teams, from several countries, have responded to the crisis. This is an area where the international community has been able to build capacity to respond fast.

t is also an area that requires strong coordination mechanisms. The efforts of the many official and non-governmental agencies that have been deployed to Nepal need to be properly integrated. Very often the host authorities are not in a position to do the required coordination. They are too busy responding to the many individual dramas throughout the disaster area. That´s why it is important for the UN to deploy a strong coordination management team. If it is composed of experienced people it will be much easier for its authority to be accepted by all the other players.

Let´s hope that´s the case this time.

After the initial response comes the very long process of rebuilding. It will require a very steady support from the international community. Nepal cannot do it alone. Unfortunately past experience shows that the mobilisation of resources from the international community is not an easy task. There is money for a quick humanitarian response, but there is little left for long term assistance. A big country needs to take the lead and help to attract other donors. Could it be India? In my opinion, and because of regional geopolitical considerations, it would be better to look for a godfather elsewhere, outside the vicinity of Nepal.

That will be a complex political challenge.

Disappointed by current European political leadership

Audacity combined with balance make the difference between leaders and run-of-the mill politicians. 

Syria´s deadlocked political process

The Syrian political process is completely dead in the water. There is no initiative on the table, after the failed attempt to create a temporary halt of hostilities in Aleppo, no room for any opening at this stage. There is also no clear strategy to move out of the deadlocked situation. It is just another crisis that will remain unresolved for a long time. Some people, on the different sides of the conflict, will benefit from that inaction. But not the millions that have been displaced and live today in horrifying conditions. Many of them know there will be no solution in the foreseeable future. That´s why they try to cross the waves, against all odds, and travel North. 

A bit tired of spineless leaders...

With so many human crises and violent conflict around us, this is no time to be kind on opportunists and other unprincipled leaders. 

The UN cannot remain silent about the Mediterranean tragedies

Pope Francis has been very clear about the immigration issue, particularly the massive loss of life and the incredible human costs of the illegal crossings of the Mediterranean Sea. We might disagree with the implicit policy proposals that one can guess behind his words, but we have to recognise that he has occupied the moral ground and been a loud voice in a sea of political silences.

We would like to hear some voices from the UN side as well. Not just the spokespersons of agency A or B, but people in leadership positions. They should come up and speak. Make proposals, suggest policy avenues, and offer their goodwill services. Some of them, like the Secretary-General or the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, are at the end of their mandates. That should give them more space to call a spade a spade and be daring.

Immigration: the pressure is on

The Foreign Ministers and other EU ministers met today to discuss the illegal crossings that constitute a daily human wave of despair coming from the Libyan shores. They called the meeting in the wake of the many deaths that have occurred these past few days.

I think we should recognise the merit of such a meeting. It is true there was no clear-cut decision but at least the matter is now on the agenda and it is recognised as an urgent issue that requires a multidimensional response.

And it also served to push the matter up, to the level of the heads of state and government. They will meet on Thursday on the subject. And let me be clear, in view of the gravity of the situation. Even if the measures that will be adopted at that summit could be seen as insufficient they will represent some progress when compared with the lack of clarity and action that has been the norm during the last year or so. 

Dying in Mediterranean

The question today, after the dramatic news about a major loss of life at sea, in Mediterranean, can only be a simple and direct one: what policy should the EU put in place to address the very complex issue of illegal immigration? I do not know the reply to this question. And I am not sure there is one. But I understand there has been a call for an urgent meeting of EU foreign ministers to discuss this major human crisis. I will be paying serious attention to the conclusions of such a meeting. 

The UN´s role: are we again ignoring it?

Are we witnessing, once more, a process of side-lining the UN and the Security Council when it comes to addressing new major conflicts, like the one taking place in Yemen, or when negotiating key political agreements, like the one regarding Iran´s nuclear programme?

This is a question that I will be raising soon and debating in a public forum. And I am a bit afraid the answer to it is could be too obvious.  

Mozambique´s enormous population growth challenges

After an agonizing day of hesitation and with great regret, I concluded I could not accept an invitation to deliver a talk in Maputo, at the end of May, on the vast population growth challenges Mozambique is confronted with. The date was not good as I have already a number of commitments around that time. I would have loved to do it. I was the first representative of the UN population agency (UNFPA) in that country, back in 1980. But besides that, Mozambique is a mirror of the situation many African countries face at present: very fast population growth rates, early marriage and teenage pregnancies, as well as very important internal migrations and unemployment issues.

The talk would be an opportunity to contribute to the reflection about the medium and long term implications of all these problems. It would also be an opportunity to acknowledge some of national efforts that the country is trying to implement. And it should also be another chance to call for deeper international partnerships with Africa in matters related to the links between population and development.

I hope these issues will come out loud and clear, in any case. 

Dying at sea, but invisible in the political capitals

Scores of desperate people drowned today at sea, when trying to cross the Mediterranean and enter the EU illegally. This is a recurrent drama that hardly gets the attention of the European public opinion. It´s no longer news, in many ways. And because it is not in the headlines any more, there is no real political attention that is given to the matter. Mass illegal immigration across the Mediterranean Sea, a daily occurrence, and the human tragedies associated with it, has become politically invisible. It is a major problem, it would require a clear-cut approach, but our leaders feel content the question is not burning on their desks.

That´s the way leadership is practised at present in our corner of the Earth.  

Fighting Boko Haram

The Chibok girls were kidnapped by Boko Haram a year ago. And many other Nigerian girls and women have also been taken hostage by this terrorist group. Everyone condemns these actions. But we should go beyond that and ask loud and clear how can that happen in a country that has one of the largest and better African equipped armies. How is it possible that a terrorist group has been able to capture people and territory? And then, we need to raise another question: where did they get the weaponry from?

Chad and Niger have now been engaged in the fight against Boko Haram, side by side with the Nigerian Army. There have been reports of some serious setbacks for the terrorists. But as of late one gets the impression that the anti-Boko Haram coalition is no longer making any tangible headway. Why is it?

The missing people and the memory of all those who have been executed by the savages under the banner of Boko Haram call for an answer to all the questions. They also call for clarity about the situation. 

Downright pathetic politics in Egypt

Every time I see images, or read the proceedings of today´s Egyptian courts, a single word comes to mind: deplorable.

When the shock is too big, we can´t find too many words. 

On Russia, we have to keep the diplomatic bridges open

On 9 May there will be a major party in Moscow. It will celebrate the 70^th anniversary of the Soviet victory against Nazism, the end of World War II, as we would say on this part of Europe. In the Russian historical narrative this is a big day. Most probably one of the top celebrations every year. It has also a lot of political meaning, as the date is sold to the people as Russian soldiers liberating Europe, after a devastating war.

This time the European leaders will not be around in Moscow. The current political and military tensions with Russia led to a decision to boycott Vladimir Putin´s invitation to attend. The decision seems to be consistent with the economic and political sanctions being imposed by our side on Russia.

But I think we should make a distinction between sanctions – which are fully justified – and diplomacy. Diplomacy should be more active than ever, now that there are serious reasons to be unhappy with Russia´s international behaviour. Diplomacy aims at repairing conflict situations. And diplomacy means contacts, being around, keeping the doors open.

In the case under discussion here, I think the best solution would have been to accept the invitation to attend the 9^th May party but to send second line political representatives. That would mean we would be around, and ready to engage, but at the same time our lower level of participation would be showing our displeasure with today´s Kremlin´s political options.

That would give no excuse to our hosts, no chance to paint us in bad colours.

Five good examples of development assistance

A brief note to put on record five good examples of commitment to international development assistance. In 2014 the following countries’ financial contributions to development assistance exceeded the agreed threshold of 0.7% of their GDP: United Kingdom, Denmark, Luxembourg, Norway and Sweden. Sweden, it should be added, was particularly generous. Its financial assistance to development programmes and projects reached 1.1% of its GDP.

These countries and 23 more make the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD. The average contribution of the DAC countries to development, also in 2014, remained well below the target – the 0.7% figure – at a mere 0.29% of GDP. 

Our little world

Our part of the world is once again responding with indifference to the human tragedies that are taking place in Syria and Iraq and to the deepening of the security crisis around Yemen. As we remain unresponsive to so many other violations of basic human rights.

 Our leaders seem to be overwhelmed by our own domestic problems, the media is focusing on Le Pen, the UK forthcoming elections and the inability of the US local police to deal with the challenges of multi-ethnicity in their towns, and we, the little people, we are just trying to cope with the air control strikes and the taxes that keep falling on us. Or preparing for the next holiday.

These are indeed interesting times: the more we know about the world, and we know plenty nowadays, the more we close ourselves in our little circles. The information reaches us but we have learned to ignore it. 

The Baltics are in sensitive region of Europe

The Baltic region, a corner of Europe I came to gradually know after I retired from the UN and initiated my current professional interests, is a very sensitive geopolitical area. The Baltic States are now in the EU and NATO. But they have a powerful and resentful neighbour and significant Russian minorities within their borders. I have always thought they need to have a very wise relationship with that neighbour. They can achieve it and, at the same time, continue to strengthen their links with our part of Europe and with NATO. The balancing act is possible. It is actually the only option that is sensible.

What is not sensible is to post a tweet in the social media, as the Latvian Foreign Minister did yesterday, that says: “The more I follow modern RU, the more I come to conclusion that she will end up like German Reich after both WWI & WWII & it'll be too late”. Such statement shows political immaturity. It does not serve the interests of his country and the region. And if we take into account that Latvia is now chairing the EU, until the end of the semester, the tweet is unacceptable, as I see it from Brussels. 

Pakistan should not get involved in the Yemen conflict

Saudi Arabia has requested Pakistan to be part of the coalition that has been formed to fight the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

There is a very close diplomatic relationship between Riyadh and Islamabad. The Pakistani leadership, and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif above all, owe a big chunk of their political survival to the support they received from the Saudis. Furthermore, Pakistan has a significant military capacity that could contribute to the war against the rebels.

But any direct involvement of Pakistan in Yemen would have deep consequences, both domestically and in the region.

Internally, it would further alienate the Shia population of Pakistan, a minority segment of the population – they represent about 15% of the country´s population – and create more friction and violence between rival sects and ethnic groups. We cannot forget that some ethnic groups are linked to similar groups in Iran, a country that is somehow close to the Houthis in Yemen.

Externally, Pakistan´s participation would mean an additional escalation of a conflict that is already gaining a regional dimension. By this time the situation is already very delicate. Any expansion of the Yemen´s conflict should be seen with deep concern.

On the road to the UN´s top position

The French President has awarded today the “Légion d´Honneur”, at the senior level of Commander, to the Director-General of UNESCO, Ms. Irina Bokova.

The DG is a Bulgarian citizen and that part of Europe is in the race to get the top position at the United Nations, once the mandate of Ban Ki-moon is over.

I thought this could be a clear indication that Paris would support Ms. Bokova´s bid to become the next UN Secretary-General. She has been quiet clear about her determination to fight for the position.

But the distinction can also be a consolation prize. They might have decided to say no to her ambition and then present her with a very high honour as a gesture to keep her reasonably gratified…

Time will make it clear. 

Time for a serious overhaul of Kenya´s security apparatus

Kenya is very vulnerable to Al-Shabaab´s terrorist enterprises. 

There is the long border with Somalia, the home base for this radical group. In addition, Kenya has a large segment of its population with Somali ethnic roots. Many of them are Kenyan citizens, others are refugees who ran away from decades of violent conflict, drought and misery in Somalia. Some might feel discriminated and marginalised but they try to cope with their situation and are only concerned by making ends meet. They are peaceful people. A few of them can however, for clan-related reasons, provide some cover to extremists. 

That´s why a greater reliance of people´s participation in their own security is essential. The security services have to link better with the citizens and cultivate a relationship of trust. 

The combat against terrorist violence in Kenya calls for a new way of collecting intelligence. That´s probably the most important step that is required at this stage. It should however be complemented by additional investments in counter-insurgency training and better coordination between the defence forces and the security services. 

A good framework deal with Iran

The perseverance has paid off and we have now the framework on a nuclear agreement with Tehran. This is good news at a time when good news from that part of the world are few and far apart.

As I said before, we should trust the negotiators and accept the deal as genuine step forward. This should be the position of every truthful leader. In the US, the right-wingers in the Republican Party are not prepared to see it from this perspective. They are even saying that they will call off the agreement if they get to the presidency in 2017. Such statements are very difficult to accept by the public opinion on our side of the ocean. And they make it more difficult for those in Europe that advocate for a strong partnership with the US. 

A deal on Iran´s nuclear programme should be possible

The nuclear deal with Iran is important for all parties. But it needs to be very clear in its details and monitoring mechanisms. It´s therefore preferable to extend the negotiations than to rush through an agreement that is incomplete and ambiguous. It has taken very long to reach the stage where we find ourselves today. It is therefore worth to continue the discussions for a few more days and weeks if the intent is to reach an accord that is credible and acceptable to all sides, including to those who do not sit at the Lausanne table of negotiations but keep a close eye on what is going on. They are actually those who need to be fully convinced that the deal is good.