Lessons from Afghanistan

This last day of 2014 marks the end of ISAF, the international military mission in Afghanistan. The coalition of combat forces, the largest alliance of states for military purposes in recent history, has been on the ground for 13 years. Throughout this very long intervention, the human and financial costs were immense. Many raise questions. Was it worth the investment, the sacrifices of so many? Was it the best approach to bring together a deeply divided country which had become a breeding nest for violent extremism and negative model of retrograde approaches to life in society? Is the current situation that is left in the hands of the national authorities sustainable? Are we safer at present?

Many thesis will be written about the international assistance to Afghanistan. But beyond the academic papers, the model applied in Afghanistan will also challenge the way we see peace enforcement, international military assistance, and the relations between key international organisations, nation building and national leadership issues. The concept of comprehensive response will also have to be revised. It should include, a few other dimensions, the regional response. Afghanistan is just the inner circle of much larger storm that includes the neighbouring countries. Any military response within the smaller circle can only be effective and sustainable if it goes beyond that circle and brings together a much wider and multifaceted political response.

Beyond these substantive and wide-ranging issues, the points today, at the end of 2014, are to remember all those who have fallen during the many years past and to wish the people of that country and its region a more peaceful 2015. They dramatically need that type of hope.

Sweden´s political agreement is an excellent example for others

The political agreement reached in Sweden by the mainstream parties deserves a special reference. It brings stability to the country´s governance, without weakening each party´s identity and electoral ambitions, and sends the nationalist extremists to a corner of the political scene. It shows a very high degree of political maturity on both sides, the centre-left and the centre-right. And it based on a long-term commitment to continuity of policies in key areas of sovereignty, such as defence and foreign affairs.

It is, in many ways, a piece of good news in Europe, at the end of the year. It could become an example for other EU countries, such as France, where there is a serious risk of seeing the right wing extremists in power in the near future. The moderate leaders should learn from the Swedish case that there is a time, meaning when the risks are higher and the economic situation is precarious, that national unity against fascists and extremists should be the top priority for the centre parties, left and right. 2015 should, in many aspects, be a year dedicated at stopping the radicals in Europe. 

Greece at the margins of Europe

Greece is again in the news. But this time, it´s no longer a headline. It is still front page news, of course. But barely, at the bottom of the front page. However, for some papers, like Le Monde, is not even there, but lost in some less prominent corner of the newspaper.

Also, Greece is no longer very big news for the markets. Besides the Greek stock exchange and the Portuguese one as well, because Portugal´s bourse is very fragile and very sensitive to bad news coming from countries that could be considered comparable, all the other financial indexes have shown indifference to the developments in Athens

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Basically, the signs are very clear: the Greek politics are essentially a domestic matter. The voters will decide and will leave with the consequences of their decision. There is also the conviction that Syriza, the extreme left coalition, will not be able to put together enough votes to form a government. That might lead to a long period of impasse, with the country being administered by a caretaker government. Again, that seems to leave many in Europe indifferent.

Geopolitics and crisis management have placed Greece back at the periphery of Europe. This will bring some changes, for sure. 

Snowing in Brussels

Snow has arrived in Brussels today. White powder in the city is always a mess. But it is nice to see the falling of the snow. It´s winter, we need a taste of winter. My friends from Scandinavia who live in and around Brussels have been very nostalgic about the lack of snow thus far. Today, they certainly feel better and happier. The only concern is that they are all out and back in Scandinavia for the festive break. And there I am sure they have plenty of it. We will keep the little we got today for another few hours, I think. 

UN is lost in Sudan

Sudan, with President Omar al-Bashir as head of State, has been for many years a major challenge to the credibility of the United Nations. There have been a succession of clash matters, from the situation in South Sudan, to Darfur, the arrest warrant against the President by the International Criminal Court, the many obstacles raised by the authorities against the UN activities in the country, including the peacekeeping mission in Darfur, and so on and so on.

The fact of the matter is that the Khartoum government under the leadership of al-Bashir is hostile to the UN presence in the country. And, on the other side of the coin, the UN has not been particularly good at defining a strategic approach to the country´s leaders. This has a major impact on UN´s credibility, particularly in the area of peace operations.

Now, the UN Development Programme top officials in the country – the Resident Coordinator and the Country Director – have just been expelled by the government, under the direct authority of al-Bashir. They will leave the country after the week end. And once again New York has been weak and tentative in its response.

This year´s heroes

In her Christmas address of today, Queen Elizabeth II said some very good words about all those who are engaged in the fight against Ebola in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. They are for sure the heroes of the year. They might not have a well-known name, their pictures might not be printed in every paper, and they might even not be paid on time or not paid at all, in some cases. But their example is very visible. It knocks on our conscience every day to remind us that in the end what matters is to be of service to others, to be committed and also be just one of many nice people. 

Happy Days

Time to wish every one of my readers a very happy Festive Season and a New Year full of great and pleasant surprises. 

Good news from Tunisia

The news from Tunisia is good. The electoral process has been credible. And for us, from our corner of the world, that´s what matters. This is an Arab revolution that has remained democratic and moderate. The rest, the outcome of the elections is a matter that belongs to the Tunisians. They have decided. And I trust the decision is certainly the wiser one, taking into account what was on offer.  

Africa and Europe

I have been asked to think about Africa´s challenges in 2015.

The question is too ambitious. It´s again based on a very common misunderstanding we find in our part of the world: to believe that Africa can be seen as a single entity.

But it is also a good opportunity to keep the African issues on the European agenda. We are in a deeply interlinked world. And Europe´s future is also very much related to developments in Africa. That´s actually the key message I wish to put across. 

Obama and Castro

I am telling my friends I fully support the approach President Obama has just adopted concerning Cuba.

It is time, indeed, to look at the relations with that country with the eyes of today and not with the perspective that has shaped our past.

It is easier to change the situation if we engage. Presence is influence. Presence is a launching pad to support change. And the people of Cuba are eager to see change in their country. Raul Castro understands it but he is constrained by his own personal history, his political relationships and the power base that keeps him at the head of the Party. But even he keeps stating the old things he is at the same time creating the conditions for a more democratic and more prosperous Cuba. We should be able to understand that. 

War by other means

The traditional approach to war between developed nations has now changed. We still have armies and defence institutions. They will continue to play the key role they are supposed to play: deterrence. They should therefore be fully supported. But besides dissuasion, they are of little practical use. Today, the economic and financial instruments of power play a much more effective role, if they are properly employed and if the political resolve is indeed in place. Financial measures can easily destroy value in the opponent´s camp and generate enough force for a negotiation process to start. That´s a new way of confronting the adversary. And it can be done openly – no need for deception and covert operations. Actually, it should be carried out with sufficient rhetoric. That would make sure the other side understands what´s at play and realises how important it is to yield. 

Leaders and demagogues

Just back from two days in Geneva. I was there to lead a workshop on peace building and crisis response and to deliver a lecture on responding to new types of conflicts. The audience was composed of mid-career professionals, both from the military and the civilian areas. They are in Geneva for an advance masters on peace studies but come from different corners of the world. Some of them will be, later in their professional life, important players in their own countries. They know that. And then, I shouldn't be surprised that several of the questions they raised to my attention were about leadership issues. The role of leaders, how to deal with rogue leaders, how to get leaders to lead.

Leadership in politics is indeed a very current topic. There are many that believe that leaders are not taking up their responsibilities. They are just chambers of resonance for the public opinion. And that´s not leadership. That´s demagogy. 

Getting closer to trouble

I am not a pessimist. I have actually no personal reason to be one. But as I look into the year that is about to start I get worried. There are a number of major geopolitical risks in the air. And the world economy is also closer to a new serious slowdown. In addition, in our part of the world people see their standard of living being threatened by new austerity measures, more taxes and poor availability of job opportunities. There is also a growing nationalistic sentiment in different corners of old Europe.

These are times of great challenges. They require courageous leaders. And we seem to be short of them as well. That´s what worries me most. 

Getting closer to 2015

In my regular opinion piece for the Portuguese weekly magazine Visão, a text I wrote this afternoon, I share my view that 2015 will be a year of great uncertainty.  The geopolitical tensions are on the increase. This time they involve major players, such as Russia, China, Japan and the US. This is no small fry. Furthermore, the economic and financial variables are more and more unpredictable. The oil price and its impact on the international financial flows as well as on the stability of countries such as Venezuela, Russia, Angola and Nigeria, and the entire Middle East, the diminished availability of cash for stocks and bonds, the trade restrictions as a result of political confrontations, the unemployment rates and the low paid jobs because of automation, and the dwindling of the middle classes in Europe and elsewhere, all these dimensions will bring new variables into a very complex economic equation. If you put on top of that activities of the international crime syndicates, and the mass immigration of young people, you are adding fuel to the fire.

That´s why we have to make the coming year a time of deep reflection about the common future of mankind. It´s time to think about the big picture again. 

Europe is heading towards nasty social confrontations

Europe´s cost of living is too high. In addition, the tax systems are too heavy. For many families the money is not just enough. And that explains, in many ways, why we have more and more nasty general strikes and street protests in countries that have been traditionally quiet. When the income is short, compared to the costs of living a basic life, any cut on salaries, pensions, subsidies or allocations makes a big difference. The problem is that we should expect more income reductions and therefore additional social conflicts. 

Human rights are the starting point for a better life

I am not sure North Korea celebrates Human Rights Day, as we do today.

And I am pleased that this year the day comes just after the publication of the report on CIA´s torture cases. That reminds us that human rights is a never-ending struggle, even in the old democracies of the West. Actually, my long trek over the world has made it clear that human rights issues, be them related to police brutality, violence against women or children´s slavery, or the freedom of speech for every individual, are the most critical issue people aspire for. A man or a woman might be poor. But he or she wants to be respected and given the space to take care of him or herself. That´s the true essence of life. Respect for each individual. And that´s a good starting point to encourage people to move out of poverty and despair. 

Hollande and Putin: a good move

President François Hollande´s stop in Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin was certainly a smart diplomatic move. In international affairs, when there is a crisis, dialogue and personal, eye-to-eye contact are much better options than public statements and speeches.

You might ask what has come out of today´s meeting. Well, the answer is very simple: a clear message that the West considers that the partnership with Russia is critically important for both sides. Such a message should also keep the lines open. And we must have good quality lines to be able to engage in a productive conversation. Clarity comes out of exchanges of views.

It also comes out of lengthy meetings. In today´s case, two hours of discussions when only one hour was scheduled says a lot about the complexity of the dialogue that is needed. 

Reporting on war and weapons

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has just published its annual report, a flagship compilation of data and analysis about last year´s wars, military expenditures and weapons production and trade. It is an excellent reference document.

Unfortunately, it also shows that the world is indeed a dangerous place. And that international security remains a major concern in the field of international relations.

The UN and the regional organizations continue to play major roles in peace and security, notwithstanding their own contradictions and other shortcomings. The truth of the matter is that without them, the world would be even more insecure. It is also true that the cooperation between all these international organisations could be stronger and more effective. That remains a priority for the future. 

Putin´s paranoia and the people´s feelings about the West

President Putin´s speech on state of the Russian nation is pure Cold War vintage. The old ghosts are back in his words and his vision of the West´s relations with his country. He sees conspiracies against Russia in every move and every fact that happens in our part of the world. It´s pitiful view of a relationship that should be based on trust and cooperation instead of suspicion and blind competition. The only possible outcome of such a policy is further underdevelopment of the Russian society, both at the institutional and economic levels. And to aggravate things further, 72% of the Russian voters think the President´s approach is right. Putin´s narrative is synchronised with the people´s feelings of a nation that is great but that has never been appreciated by the West. These feelings and the narrative are difficult to change because there is very little room in the nation for those who would like to express a different view of things.

Russia´s is moving fast to become a major disaster at the footsteps of Europe. And that is for sure a matter that is of great concern for all of us in Europe.  

A clear policy declaration on Ukraine´s situation

Today´s statement by the NATO Foreign Ministers about the situation in Ukraine is a strong and clearly-worded policy position. It should be read with due care. I am sure that will be the case in Moscow. 

EU mission in Ukraine

The EU has initiated the deployment of an assistance mission to Ukraine to support the civilian dimensions of security sector reform: police, prosecution, justice, penal system. This will a large deployment for an initial period of two years.

It is certainly a good move. It should contribute to bring the civilian security system up to more acceptable standards. But the mission will face very serious obstacles within the Ukrainian security establishment. The officers, at every level, are used to practices that come from the old authoritarian times. That´s their level of comfort, their culture in dealing with the citizens. In addition, there is a lot of corruption built in the system. And corruption is a source of income in a country that is in serious economic difficulties and pays very low salaries.

With these difficulties in mind it will be important to closely monitor how the EU mission will respond to these challenges.

It will also be necessary to watch the performance of the mission leadership. 

Get the citizens´support back: the priority for the EU at this stage

I wrote today, in my contribution to the next issue of the Portuguese magazine Visão,  that the indifference of the citizens towards the European project is the most critical menace to the continuation of the Union. With the economic crisis, nations got used to look inwards and try to find their own solutions to challenges that were shared and should have been tackled jointly. As such, citizens lost the European perspective. The message they were getting from their political leaders was very clear: if there is a major crisis, each country has to take care of itself.

This erroneous approach needs to be corrected. Politicians and opinion makers have to underline, in very unambiguous terms, that the only way forward is for a joint European strategy to address critical issues of common interest. That will the first step to regain the support of the citizens. And that´s an urgent task. 

OPEC is moribund

OPEC, the oil countries organization, is less and less relevant. It´s deeply divided, it´s unable to attract new member states to join the 12 that make it, and its total production is less than one third of the overall oil production figure.

Today´s meeting has shown the impasse the organization is in. And the price of oil has tumbled as a result. 

What to think of Juncker´s economic plan?

Jean-Claude Juncker´s plan for economic recovery and expansion has now been presented to the European Parliament. It will be important to follow the parliamentary debate during the next few sessions, to see if this is a plan with wings and able to fly or just another heavy monster chained to cannon balls made of interests and flat ideas. 

EEAS: too many chiefs and few foot soldiers

I spent some time yesterday discussing with staff from the European External Action Service. And I got the impression they are a bit overstretched. Great staff but overwhelmed by the work, the complicated bureaucratic processes and the meetings they have to attend to. The lists of assignments keep growing, the level of ambition is huge, and the eagerness to take additional responsibilities is deeply rooted in the culture of the service. But the number of Indians available to carry out the work seems to me to be insufficient. Actually, the EEAS appears to be heavy on bosses and chiefs, and certainly very light on the question of work bees. 

Each country decides about its political options, including its international alliances

Sovereignty belongs to the people. This is a major political principle. It is a key pillar of today´s international relations. I might come from a small country, but the direction things take at home is my prerogative and of my fellow citizens. We choose. In today´s world, and particularly after the decolonisation and the fall of the Soviet empire, there is no need to ask for the neighbours ‘permission to opt for this or that political choice. It is our right. It is the right of each countries ‘citizens. We might be wrong but in the end we are the ones that will pay for the consequences. And we are ready for that. The only rule we have to take into account is about remaining within international values and conventions. We can decide about making an alliance left or right. We cannot however decide to violate human rights codes or discriminate against minorities, for instance. It is important to keep that in mind. 

Let´s support Tunisia

The Tunisian presidential elections – the first round was held today – are important for the country´s citizens, obviously, but also for the image of Arab revolutions.

Tunisia was the first country to undergo a major political change based on mass demonstrations. It is today the best example of democratization in the Arab world, notwithstanding the many problems the country is still confronted with. And all the friends of Tunisia and democracy in that part of the planet would like it to continue to be a good example. Even if we know that there are many dimensions that are far from being good, including some related to the old oligarchy, its corrupted practices and its attempts to highjack the process, we need to be able to say that there is pluralism, tolerance and rule of law in a country that shares its borders with states that are still in deep crisis.

We should also be able to convince the tourists to go back to Tunisia and all types of investors to look at the country´s potential. 

NATO countries should offer support to Kenya

It´s quite obvious that Kenya is a frontline country in the fight against armed and terrorist groups. The key NATO countries should engage more with Kenya and offer whatever support might be required to strengthen the capacity of the national authorities to do the necessary intelligence work and fight the terrorist organisations operating in the country or nearby.  

Respect the national choices and you have peace

Ukraine should be able to decide about its own future. That´s the basic rule when it comes to national sovereignty. And sovereignty is still a basic tenet in terms of defining the relations between states. Even in out interdependent world, even in a more integrated Europe, sovereignty is, in the end, the fundamental pillar of any nation. 

Sanctions have an impact on the views around President Putin

In the last few months, the Russian rouble has lost 30% of its dollar value. This is directly linked to the sanctions the Western countries have put in place against Russia´s economic and financial interests. And on top of it, there is a strong fall in the price of oil, which is a key export commodity in Russia. 

All of this bites and cannot be immediately addressed by alternative ties with China and other economies. Such ties take time to produce effects. Russia is confronted with short-term challenges. It is true they have a huge sovereign fund. That gives the leadership some space. But is it enough? One start getting reports of divergent approaches within the leadership. These needs to be further investigated. 

Rethinking peace operations

I spent the end of last week in Oslo at the invitation of the Norwegian Foreign Ministry. The aim was to review their support to peace operations during the past years and to reflect about future assistance. Norway is a small country but a big player in areas of peace and conflict resolution, as well as a very committed supporter of bilateral approaches. They are particularly keen in strengthening the African Union´s peace machinery and also the UN´s.

But peace operations, as they are implemented by those two organisations, are under serious stress. The new types of menaces, the nature of conflict in many parts of the world, the challenges the West is facing in non-Western societies, are some of the key issues that call for a rethink of the deployments. The models followed up to now are no longer suited for the violence we meet today, be it in the Central African Republic, in Nigeria, in the North of Africa or in the Middle East.

The discussion is ongoing. But it can´t take long. The crises call for quick responses, early results and smart political processes. 

People´s power is based on information and access to social media as well

The big banks are all under serious scrutiny. Their public image is at present very shaky. Every day we get news that more wrong-doings have been uncovered and that new huge fines have been decided against some banks. Very soon the public opinion will start asking questions about the bankers, not just the banks. People will expect individuals to be brought to the book.

At a time of mass access to information and widespread use of social media as a communication tool, one has to realise that all those in position of power, be it political, economic or financial, will be very exposed to the public eye. This is a new age of transparency. And in many aspects, it´s a new way of creating mechanisms of power control. Change is indeed taking place. Power is being challenged. 

800 at the G20

I am told the G20 leaders have approved 800 new measures. And I answer I can´t believe it. It is not possible. Someone is making fun of us. 

The heavy skies above the G20 Annual Summit

G20 annual summits have become a meaningless ritual. The one taking place today and tomorrow in the delightful city of Brisbane, Australia, is no exception. Just a few grandiose statements and a handful of leaders that are pretty preoccupied with their own home problems. The statements on global issues are just the usual staff, prepared by the aides and delivered for the gallery.

But this year´s meeting takes place at a time of great tensions. These tensions are now much bigger than the dramatic situations in the Middle East or in parts of Africa. To their complexities we should add new ones, in other corners of the world. These are dangerous times. One cannot ignore the seriousness of the dispute with Russia. And one should not ignore the potential for armed conflict in East Asia.

And these new realities were there in Brisbane and have made the atmosphere of the summit much heavier. Interestingly, Brisbane is used to heavy skies. So, its choice as the venue for the 2015 Summit of the G20 ended up by being rather symbolic. 

Russia is getting on our nerves

The renewed intrusion of Russian troops in Eastern Ukraine, which has been properly document during the last couple of days, has brought back a certain level of fear in Western Europe. In many circles, including in the top business spheres, the anxiety comes from the fact that Moscow´s geostrategic intentions are not clear. How far is the Kremlin ready to go? This is the question. And there is no good answer to it. When such a question cannot get a reasonable response key leaders on our side of the world get nervous. That´s where we are today.  

Armistice Day

Armistice Day: time to say yes to peace and cooperation in Europe. Including with Russia, of course. Partnerships between nations, starting with the economic partnership, are the foundation for a sustainable and prosperous future for all. Confrontation and prejudice can only bring us back to the old demons of the past. 

Nigeria is being destroyed as a result of many years of corrupted practices

A large number of school children were killed today in North-east Nigeria by a suicide bomber. It was another tragedy in a country that is a key target for extremists.

I feel very sorry for the people of Nigeria. But not just because of the mass killings. Also because the widespread insecurity is the tip of a huge iceberg, made of large-scale corruption. Plenty of money has been spent on the armed forces and the police and these institutions are as weak as the rest of the public services. A good chunk of the resources was wasted and misappropriated.

 Institutions have just become facades, nothing else. That´s why Nigeria, which has a very big military establishment, cannot deal with Boko Haram. If one takes into account that Boko Haram and the extremists are just a bunch of unsophisticated terrorists one realises better the measure of the inefficiency that has resulted from many years of corrupted practices at very high levels of authority. 

From the Berlin Wall to the APEC Summit

As our part of Europe celebrates the fall of the Berlin Wall against a background of deepening tension between East and West, 21 leaders on the other side of the globe, in Beijing, meet in the framework of APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum. Their background is also marred by a very high level of tension in that part of the world. In both cases, prudence and wisdom are the key requirements leaders should meet. Here and there, it would be a mistake to ignore the risks resulting from old misrepresentations and new rivalries.

These are the two regions of the world where any conflict could easily become a cataclysm. Things would get out of hand and the consequences would be unimaginable. It is therefore important to appeal for cooperation as the way forward. Blind competition and shows of strength are no way to resolve the issues of today. The leaders need to be so reminded. 

The leader provides the answers

When everyone has access to all types of sources of information and when opinions are shaped in seconds, through headlines, sound bites and quick-passing images, it becomes very difficult to be an accepted political leader. One has to be very clear about the kind of persona one wants to project, taking into account the support basis one aims to build. It is a never ending effort. The political leader is always in the public eye and cannot let his or her attention relax. It is also exhausting. That´s probably the reason why leaders come and go so fast. They are out of gasp before too long.

I thought about all this today again as I saw the latest figures about President François Hollande´s popularity. He is at a very low point. I think his case will be, sooner or later, the subject of a major academic thesis that will seek to understand how it was possible for a French head of State to sink so fast in the public opinion.

I also thought about leadership when I saw the reports about Ed Miliband, the boss of the Labour Party in the UK. He is confronted with serious criticism about his lack of leadership charisma. His detractors say basically that he cannot connect with the common person on the street. Connecting with people is essential. But what does it mean exactly? It is certainly about creating a relationship of trust. But confidence is not enough. One has to be perceived as the one that can provide the answers to the many interrogations people have today. And that´s particularly important at a time of uncertainties. And at present there are plenty of them in our part of the world. 

European should mean tolerance

I have been asked what could be the positive angle from which to look at today´s EU. Good question. And like all good questions, it is better to leave it open. To find the answer to such a question should be a collective endeavour for all of us. Each could bring a part of the answer and then we can construct the puzzle. Because part of European positive narrative is about giving a voice to everyone, from each corner of the Continent, and accepting each nationality as equal. In a Continent that has spent centuries at war with itself, that´s a big change for the better. And a good example for other regions of the world that are still engulfed in conflict and hatred. 

Let´s be positive about the EU´s future

It is time to fight the negative views of Europe´s future. This should be a key policy line for the new Juncker Commission as they start their work in Brussels. Europe needs a positive spin and a narrative that is clear about the common future of the Europeans. 

Africa´s development priorities

I wrote an opinion piece today to emphasize how important is for the international community to focus on the development challenges of Africa. This should be one of the top priorities in the global agenda for the next two or three decades. And the key areas of intervention have to be, as I see them, the following: governance, energy development and agricultural change. Resources, both from Africa and from elsewhere, should go first to these three sectors. That will be the only way to address the compound problems of extreme poverty, population growth and chaotic urbanisation. 

Africa´s liberation

We should celebrate every time a dictator falls because of popular demonstrations. In the end, dictatorship, abuse of power, human rights violations and absence of freedom are among the worst things that can happen to a population. And when they are associated with widespread poverty and lack of economic opportunities, we have a catastrophic scenario. A nightmare, as they say.

That´s the case in several African countries. Therefore, today´s fall of the Big Man in Burkina Faso is good news for all the oppressed in many other places of the Continent. It shows that there is hope. It also shows that people on the streets in large numbers make history. 

Burkina Faso is a land of noble people

Burkina Faso is a fascinating country in the Sahel. Its people are very dynamic. Many citizens, particularly the urban youth, are very well educated. But like many countries in its part of the world, unemployment and lack of economic opportunities is a major feature. Young people go to school and from there go the streets, trying to scrap a living out of very little things.

The President and the elite have become very disconnected from the men and women on the streets. They live in relatively opulence and like to show it. Power has corrupted the leaders, starting with the President and his closer supporters. The President himself, a man who came to power after the assassination of his close friend Thomas Sankara, 27 years ago, - and some have always claimed that he is the one who killed Sankara, an idealist that was trying to change the country into a better place – is a very rich man. He believes he cannot leave the seat of power. He is afraid of investigations on his past actions, including the events of 27 years ago.

He tried to change the Constitution to remain President for the foreseeable future. His friends and also his adversaries told him that was a very serious mistake. People would not accept it.

Tonight, hiding somewhere, he might be thinking that the advice given to him was in the end the right one. But it is now too late for him, I believe.  

Living in Beijing

Beijing is a fascinating place, a friend of mine who lives there told me today. I am sure it is. But if you do not speak Mandarin, as it is his case, you lose most of it. You live just in the margins of life as it happens in that big city. And you feel very small, just an ethnically minuscule dot in a society that has very little respect for Westerners. And you also live in an illusory world, far disconnected from a society that is profoundly different and extremely materialistic. 

Justice and participation are key values of today

In a discussion today about armed conflicts, rebellions, terrorist activity and violence in general, the issues of injustice and human insecurity did not receive enough attention. They should be at the centre of the preoccupations. People want to feel safe, that´s a very basic and fundamental feeling. And in today´s world there is also a lot of attention being paid to social justice. We all want to see good behaviour being rewarded and bad actions being punished, including all abuses of power and political office. Related to that, no one wants to feel he or she does not matter. People want to be taken into account. They want to see inclusion as a guiding value and to have the opportunity to participate, to be heard. Everyone should matter, that´s the way presently we see the world. Exclusion is an injustice, in the eyes of today´s younger generations. And it is not accepted. 

Dilma´s challenges

Dilma Rousseff has been re-elected President of Brazil. It was a tough campaign and many people in the country thought she would not make it. She had created quite a number of die-hard opponents, particularly among the urban middle class and the riches segments of the nation. But the country remains above all a socially divided society, with large numbers of very poor and excluded people. They are the ones that constitute the electoral basis of Dilma. And to be frank, it is better they feel represented. That´s Dilma´s card. But it is also the card of all those who are better off. They cannot afford to have a large number of people below the poverty line and dis-empowered. It is not safe, it is not a solid ground for stability.

Dilma´s job now is to respond to the aspirations of the largest number of people including those that have voted against her and do not like her administration at all. She has to be seen as inclusive, and able to fight corruption. But above all, she has to be seen as a leader that can promote growth and greater equality in a country that is not growing fast enough, notwithstanding its possibilities, and that is deeply unequal. Can she do the job?

   

UK´s dilemma and Cameron´s mess

David Cameron´s European policy is in disarray. And now, with the new demands coming from Brussels for additional payments into the common budget, justified by the revision of the national accounts in every State of the Union, and with Angela Merkel criticising the British Prime Minister´s stance on immigration, the matter has become even worse. I do not see at this stage any way out for the Conservatives but to be openly advocating for a Britain outside the EU. This could bring them some votes in the forthcoming general elections, they believe. The only problem is that such a position runs against the interests of the Conservative top funders. And in many ways, against Cameron´s own understanding of British long-term interests. It is a major dilemma. Cameron´s dilemma. 

Ebola as a biological weapon?

The collective hysteria around Ebola is such that some people are already talking about the possibility of “enemy forces” being engaged in capturing the virus to make future use of it as a biological weapon. This is taking us too far. Why? What are we trying to achieve with such unfounded rumour?

And it is also a distraction when the main objective should remain to help West Africa to fight the epidemic. 

Juncker´s challenge

Jean-Claude Juncker has won the vote at the European Parliament. He managed to get the support of a very large grand coalition of centre-right and centre-left MEPs. The way he addressed them was consistent with the process he led up to this day: being smart, saying the things that are mainstream, and paying attention to those who matter. He lost little time on extremists, on anti-EU MEPs, on all those that would vote in any case against him. His vast European experience gave him a strong advantage as well. He knows the issues better than any of the deputies in the EU Parliament.

His mandate will start on November 1. The expectations of the EU citizens are pretty low at the moment. Therefore, Juncker starts from a favourable ground. He just needs to adopt, sooner after taking office, one or two actions that could be perceived by the Europeans as new, a change.

But his time in office will run through a difficult time for the EU. The challenges ahead are immense. Maybe the biggest one will be to keep the Union together. Today more than ever the future on the EU is at risk. His experience might be of great help in trying to achieve the required and missing cohesiveness.

   

Denis Mukwege deserves the recognition

The Congolese medical doctor Denis Mukwege is this year´s laureate of Europe´s Sakharov Prize. This great honour recognises Dr Mukwege´s work in Eastern Congo in support of women and girls that have been victims of mass rape. Rape is in that part of Africa a weapon of terror. Women and girls are caught in between the rebel groups and the government forces and end up by paying a terrible price. Dr Mukwege has been their medical helper, both also their voice and advocate. He has done it with great bravery and a very strong sense of duty.

Today we can only say that this year´s Sakharov Prize, decided by the European Parliament, makes justice to a great African.

It also calls the world´s attention to the plight of women and children in conflict situations. It is in many ways an appeal for more action against that type of violence. 

Ebola: Bring the resources to West Africa

I wrote my bi-weekly column to the Portuguese magazine Visão this morning. Everybody is writing about Ebola these days. I also did. It is the second time in recent weeks that I focus on this matter. I just felt it was necessary once more to emphasize that the fight against the epidemic ought to be fought in West Africa. Rich countries and permanent members of the UN Security Council have the duty of assistance. They should make all types of resources available. The disease has crushed the response capacities of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. These countries are in need of immediate help. And it is the duty of the developed world to assist. International solidarity is a key pillar of the new international order. We should insist on that. And also on the fact that we are saving lives. For now, it is the lives of West Africans. That´s a strong reason. But later on, if we are late to act, it could be our own lives, in our part of the world. And that´s also a strong reason for us to move without any further delay. 

Nigeria: can we believe there is an agreement with Boko Haram?

Knowing as I know the players, I am afraid the announcement made by the Nigerian presidency regarding an accord with Boko Haram might just be wishful thinking, at best. But it can even be worse than that. It can just be a deceitful statement at a time the electoral fever is about to start.

The next few days will tell. 

Arrogance in politics is so common

In politics it is a grave mistake to confuse arrogance with firmness. Arrogance leads to disaster. It narrows down your analytical capacity. It puts everybody else off and makes you an easy target. Firmness, on the other hand, reveals leadership and inspires confidence. It makes people believe you know what you are up to. It sends the message that you are a person of courage, ready to fight for your views. And that’s one of the best signals a politician can communicate. 

Credible leadership is missing

There aren´t enough reasonable voices around. The current circumstances require leaders that speak clearly and give sense and hope in response to destabilising events. Leaders that are good at inspiring confidence. We are confronted with exceptional times and have very ordinary and soulless individuals at the helm. 

Dilma´s political future is at stake

Dilma Rousseff, Brazil´s head of State, is fighting for her political future.

The second round of the presidential elections will take place in about eleven days, on October 26. The odds are playing against Dilma. Her party has been in power for the last twelve years. It is strongly embedded in the administrative apparatus and it has also a solid support in the poorer segments of the country. But at a time of economic slowdown, as it is today the case in Brazil, when public resources have become scarcer, it is easy to put the blame on the government and vote against those in power. On top of that, large sectors of the urban and better educated Brazilians are today against Dilma´s party and her control of the administrative machinery. They are basically afraid of Dilma´s interventionist policies, of new taxes, and they want change.

In many ways, the Brazilian society is today much polarised. And less solidary. Class plays a defining role. And individualism, personal success, is also a common trait in a country that prides itself for its self-made men and women. Many do not understand the social policies Dilma´s party has implemented in favour of the poor.

All that runs objectively against a candidate that is identified with a strong option for a more redistributive social policy.

I am afraid Dilma might be the loser at the end of the day, on the 26^th. 

Turkey and its approach to the Islamic State bandits

Just a very simple question: what is Turkey doing to fight the terrorists that call themselves the Islamic State? The Turkish government is indeed very difficult to understand. 

Near Lisbon there is plenty to visit

As I drove around the greater Lisbon area I came to the conclusion that there are still many places near the Portuguese capital that are of great interest for a visitor. They should be better talked about. Sintra and Cascais are well known. They attract a good number of foreign visitors.  But there are other places, such as Ericeira by the sea or Mafra and its convent and rural landscapes that good be better publicised. Including for their cuisine and the variety of the landscapes.

Tourism is very much about the way you talk about your region. It is also about making sure you offer quality at a reasonable price. And it is nowadays, during the off-season, about being able to catch the attention of the retirees from elsewhere. They are a very important segment of the market during the low season. Things need to be organised to cater for their interests. 

Argentinian blues...

Argentina is again in the midst of economic and financial chaos. People are desperate and the country seems to be directionless.

I raised the issue this morning as part of my regular discussions with some people at the centre of European decision making. I was told, in very direct and brief words, that Argentina matters very little in international affairs. If they have a problem – and they do have some very serious ones, I thought to myself –then it is up to them to sort them out.

I believe that´s what people call internationalist realism…

Hong Kong is different

The Hong Kong mass demonstrations show once again that people cherish their freedom once they have been able to acquire it. Freedom is one of the top aspirations of humankind.

The political pact that underwrites stability and state control in China is based on growing well-being for the people. The Chinese accept at this stage, not always with a warm heart, that their liberty be curtailed as long as the government keeps the economic expansion and is in a position to augment the population´s purchasing power.

In Hong Kong, the standard of living is much higher than in Mainland China. Therefore, that part of the pact has very attraction. People are already there, they are wealthy. But they have also enjoyed political freedom. And they do not want to lose it. Once you have tasted it you want to keep it.

Furthermore, the people of Hong Kong have a serious dislike for the Mainlanders. They look at their fellow compatriots from Mainland China with a deep, open feeling of superiority. Hong Kong citizens complaint about the other Chinese by saying they are greedy, dishonest, uneducated and too narrow-minded. That feeling is quite perceptible when you talk to the people in Hong Kong. If you tell them that you are planning to visit the Mainland, as I did, they will keep warning you about the cheating you might be subject to once you have crossed the border.

The Beijing authorities know they cannot send the army to deal with the street protests in Hong Kong. They would like the demonstrators to take a false step and try to invade the administrative buildings in the city. But that seems not to be the case. So, Beijing will wait. They know that the streets will get tired and the demonstrations will end up by fading away. That will probably be the case.

But Beijing also knows that the people of Hong Kong do not want the kind of political dispensation that prevails in the Mainland. And that´s a very strong message. 

An Indian face in Europe´s politics

The Portuguese Socialist Party has a new leader: António Costa, the current mayor of Lisbon. On Sunday he won the party´s nomination by an overwhelming majority of the votes. He was running against the outgoing Secretary-General of the party, António José Seguro, and received the support of more than two-thirds of the voters. The mandate is clear. And the level of hope invested on him as well.

On the father´s side, António Costa has his family roots in Goa, India. His election places him in a very good position to be the next Prime-minister of Portugal, by next year´s autumn. To have a Prime-minister that is of Indian origin shows how much Portugal and Europe´s ethnicity mix has changed and keeps changing. This is the new Europe, built on old nations and new immigrants. This is also a Europe that has to adjust to a more globalised world.

In my opinion it is good news to open up. We Europeans need to have a much broader view of ourselves and of our position in the affairs of the world. It is not just about being more tolerant. It is also about getting a better grasp about the world´s diversity and how to insert ourselves in an international reality that has changed and will continue to change at a very high speed. 

More on leadership

I have spent the last days reflecting about political leadership in the European context. There is a strong feeling, in many quarters, that leadership is currently in short supply. I am not sure. What seems to be missing is wise political leadership combined with courage to say it as it is. A leader cannot be just the echo of popular opinions. We tend to confuse representativeness and democracy with being like everybody else. The representative of the people brings something else to the common views. His or her role is to provide balance to the views expressed by the loudest members of society, to make the synthesis of the majority opinion and at the same time combining it with the protection of the minority opinion. That is about guiding and building confidence. 

Dilma and Marina

The forthcoming presidential elections in Brazil, scheduled for 5 October with a second round taking place on 26^th, if necessary, should be studied with great attention by those who are particularly interested in leadership issues.

 Dilma Rousseff, the incumbent, is in a tight battle against Marina Silva, an opposition candidate that might bring together the social-democrats and the centre-right. Actually, in the current Brazilian spectrum, it is not easy to talk about left and right politics as the main candidates have founded their campaigns on broad alliances that cover a good number of parties and movements. But that´s not my point at present. The point is about the personalities and the way the two leading ladies conduct their election campaigns. They have two different styles, both very remarkable. There is a lot to be learned from them in terms of political leadership in a huge and very diverse country.

DIlma has against her the fact that her party has been in power for 12 years and that many would like to see a change of direction in the way politics are conducted. The events of the last 14 months, with mass demonstrations and many opposing the way public money has been spent on prestige projects, or embezzled by corrupt individuals in positions of power, run against Dilma´s re-election. She has however many positive trump cards. Would they be enough? Would they be played in the appropriate manner?

Marina, on the other side, represents a bit of fresh air, but with many contradictions in terms of her political positions. She projects however a more caring image and that plays in her favour. It also plays for her the fact that she comes from very humble roots and the simplicity of her discourse. She might be the next president of Brazil. 

Targeting IS

The air campaign against the Islamic State, as those primitive extremists are now called, is basically about good targeting. Target definition is a labour-intensive, time demanding, costly exercise. It results of the combination of a large variety of information-gathering skills, related to human and technological intelligence activities. Very few countries are in a position to do that well. That´s an area where the EU armies need to acquire additional skills and means.

Then, there is the very delicate moment of target approval. Once the potential target has been identified, the action against that target needs to be approved by the right level of authority. This has to be done with great care, to avoid errors and collateral damage.

But all this is very effective in today´s world. This is the new way of neutralising real dangerous enemies. In the current circumstances, the message to the IS fellows is that they will be routed. There is the political will and the necessary coalition to do it. Those at the forefront of the air campaign mean business.

There is another message, this one for the young people in the EU that are planning to join the radicals in the Middle East. If you go, your chances are very limited. Either you will be caught when one of the targets is destroyed or you will be, like many others, killed in a hot fight with other rival groups out there. If you survive both situations, there will be a team of policemen waiting for you in Europe when you come back from Syria or Iraq. Therefore, be wise, keep quiet and do not go. To adhere to the extremism of IS has no future for you.

One-stream approach to crisis management

We are in the middle of a series of discussions about a comprehensive approach to crisis response. 

We all recognize how important it is to take into account the different instruments of power available to deal with a major crisis. And then we design the response, the plan of operations, we decide on the means and the ways. And we focus just on the instrument of power that is familiar to us. One single angle to sort out a multi-dimensional problem.

It is question of comfort zone. We prefer to stay with the tools we are used to handle. 

UN cannot be missing in action

The agreement reached between the two presidential candidates is key for the stability and security of Afghanistan. Ashraf Ghani, the future president, and Abdullah Abdullah,  who will have his nominees in key positions within the new Cabinet and as governors of some provinces, are both top politicians and very reasonable, experienced individuals. They are among the best in the country´s political class. But they represent different domestic interests as their tribal links are based on geography and ethnic politics. The agreement between them should therefore be seen as a balancing act between the tribes from the North, closer to Abdullah, and the South that basically supports Ghani.

The balance was struck thanks to the continued efforts of John Kerry and the US ambassador in Kabul. The US made the agreement possible.

This has shown, as it is nowadays happening quite often, that the UN mission in the country has not been able to play the mediation role they should have. This is no good news. Particularly because the same weak role is now the trademark of the UN in some other conflicts around the world.

It might be the moment to raise one or two questions about the current state of affairs of the UN´s peace-making efforts.

Fortunately, on the same day the deal was announced in Kabul, the UN envoy in Yemen was in a position to convince the warring parties in that collapsing country to sign a ceasefire accord. That´s a bit of good news about the UN. But it is not enough. 

Sierra Leone´s Ebola keeps everyone at home

Sierra Leone is locked down for three days. The last day will be tomorrow. During this period no-one can be on the streets, anywhere in the country, unless it has a valid official reason. People have to stay in-doors and wait for the Ebola sensitization teams to visit the home and do the talk about the disease.

It is a major dramatic decision to lock everyone in at home for three days. I saw the President on TV, when he explained the reasons. Dr Ernest Bai Koroma, a man I know very well, we had many private lunches together and also many official meetings, looked old and tired. This tragedy has taken a very heavy toll on him and on his countrymen and women.

But his words were very wise. I really hope people will follow the health guidance that is provided. And that the international community will be up to the challenge and willing to augment the assistance. The disease is controllable but the country calls for additional support. And the population has to get rid of the political divisions, the ethnic fears and believe the President. 

Scotland

Very encouraged by the results of the Scottish referendum. It is a good cold shower on all the blind nationalisms and opportunistic politics across the EU. It sends the message that when it matters people come to the polls and express their will with wisdom.

Indeed, this is no time for further divisions in Europe. Just the opposite. The peoples of Europe have to stick together and be strong.

But the UK has not yet won the key battle: the battle against the anti-EU rhetoric that is gaining ground in different corners of the kingdom. That´s the true challenge ahead. 

President Obama´s Ebola call is vital

The decision taken by President Obama regarding the deployment of about 3,000 military personnel to Liberia to help the country to fight Ebola is a game changer. It has placed the epidemic in its true context as a grave menace to the political stability of the country and the neighbouring states, as well as a major human security threat. It is the survival of the entire region that is at stake, its peace and unity.

Ebola, as I have said in these pages in the recent past and also in my Portuguese language columns, is much more than a public health challenge. It has, of course, health dimensions that none can ignore. It is destroying very fragile national health systems, as it is already the case in Liberia. But it is above all a national and regional security threat for West Africa.

The countries concerned need all the help they can get.

Unfortunately, very few countries outside the region are taking the issue with the attention it requires. Maybe that will change a bit now that the US President has given Ebola the prominence it requires.

Cooperation in Europe is the only way to do business

The last thing Europe needs is war. That´s the message we have to send around. But we should also send an additional message: European countries should respect international law and the existing treaties. There is no way we can accept any exception to that. Those leaders who think they can ignore internationally accepted norms and agreements that have been signed by the European nations, including their own countries, are on the wrong side of history. They should be clearly told that. And if they persist, then there are sanctions of all types and sizes that can be applied. But always with the invitation for them to change course and accept that the only acceptable approach to relations among our States is the one based on full respect for the sovereignty and the domestic affairs of each country. The political and economic instruments are quite powerful in international relations. They should however be complemented by a build-up of national security and a strong public information campaign. 

The UN General Assembly is now around the corner

The annual session of the UN General Assembly is about to start. The agenda is diversified and it includes the new global approach to the development goals, environment and climate change matters, population growth issues as well as the usual high rhetoric but politically important speeches by some key world leaders.

Unfortunately, the UN is not in a position to come up with a road map for some very critical on-going conflicts, like the one in Ukraine or the situation in the Middle East, including an accepted agenda to fight extremism and human rights violations. Critics would say it shows the irrelevance of the UN as a mechanism for conflict resolution when the scale of the conflict is too big and related to the contradictory interests of powerful countries.

It is however too much to talk about irrelevance. The UN does what it can, what the member states allow it to do. And in some areas of intervention, like the ones I mention at the beginning of this post, it has done quite a bit. And it is still the only hope that remains for many in very poor and ill governed countries. 

Cuba sends 165 health personnel to Sierra Leone

Cuba has decided to deploy 165 medical and health services personnel to Sierra Leone to help in the fight against the Ebola pandemics. They will serve for a six-month period.

This is great news. It should be reported on the big media. It is important to show that West Africa is facing a major crisis and that the countries of the region need a much stronger response from the international community. 

In Riga with hope

When in Riga, as it is again the case at present, I am amazed by the elegance and good manners of its people. I can only wish they will be able to keep the society together, notwithstanding the linguistic and social divisions, and keep the economy growing.

The region might feel nervous because of the events in Ukraine. But the Baltic States are not in the same predicament as Ukraine. They are now part of the EU and NATO. They belong to a greater political space. And their geo-economic situation can be an advantage, a major trump card. They can be a strong link between the rest of the EU and Russia, once the situation goes back to normal. And I hope that will be the case one day in the coming future. 

11 September

This is a special day because of what happened thirteen years ago. But it is a bit worrying that the news of this day is about an escalation of the tensions between the EU and Russia. On the European side, today was decided to go ahead with the new round of sanctions against the other side. In Russia, the announcement was about military state of alertness and readiness and other conflict-related statements. This is indeed bad news. And this time the markets are getting very nervous about these developments. If you add to it the fact that the latest opinion poll in China and Japan shows that the public opinion of both countries is getting more and more antagonist, more convinced that conflict between them will erupt, then we can say we have a strange feeling about the state of peace in some parts of the world that are not far from our own yard. 

Juncker´s Commission

Jean-Claude Juncker came out as a strong leader, when he announced the Commisssion of the EU that he wants to put together. The choice of the first Vice-President, Frans Timmermans of the Netherlands, is a very courageous one. Juncker still recognises the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini of Italy, as a Vice-President, but places the former Dutch Foreign Minister as his right hand. Furthermore, Mogherini has agreed to move out of the EEAS building and joining Juncker at the Berlaymont building. The proximity brings greater coherence, enhances team work and sends the signal that Juncker is the boss.

In addition, the letter sent to each Commissioner by the incoming President states clearly what he expects from each one of them. It also indicates the clusters they belong to and who will be leading each one of those thematic areas. This is modern way of going governance. It is also a message about coherence, cohesiveness and lines of responsibility.

Now, the next step is in the European Parliament. Juncker might face some opposition from the Socialist group. They consider their candidates were not given enough authority in the line-up presented today. It is true. But it is also true that most of the strongest candidates were nominated by Conservative governments that are in power throughout Europe.

The Western public opinion is not getting the point on Ebola

New research information shows that Ebola could spread across a number of regions of West and Central Africa. It is also already destabilising Liberia and Sierra Leone and could easily bring havoc to other neighbouring countries beyond Guinea. It would be a serious mistake to underestimate the human, social, economic and political costs of the pandemic. And we continue to see some opinion makers in our part of the world missing the point. 

The Scottish approach to circling the wagons

The forthcoming Scottish referendum on independence should be seen as part of a movement towards the circle the wagon approach: you and your companions make a circle with all the wagons available, to protect you from the incoming Indians…Scots and other peoples in Europe think they will be better off if they stay by themselves and avoid sharing anything with the neighbours.

This is against the dream of a greater union in Europe. And it is a simplistic and nationalistic response to the challenges of globalization. But it generates a lot of popular enthusiasm, no doubt.

A vote for independence in Scotland will encourage others to go the same road in other corners of the EU.

Keeping the parts together is critical to win

It is not always true that an alliance of states is stronger than one single state. The alliances are particularly fragile when its workings are based on consensus. Consensus at a time of crisis is difficult to build and sustain. And the key set of actions of the adversary is aimed at breaking the consensus, creating divisions, exploiting the differences and diverging interests. Furthermore, the adversary will spend a lot of resources trying to divide public opinion within the alliance. Public opinion is critical in the information age of today. The adversary knows it. Actually, very often it pays more attention to our public opinion than we do. And that´s one of the weaknesses we need to address. No conflict in this age can be won if we do not carry the vast majority of the citizens with us. 

Time to be wiser

Gas supplies from Russia remain a key trump card. We should not forget it. And since yesterday, this option seems less improbable than before.

 But the signs remain very confusing. There is, in many quarters, a clear intention to de-escalate. I also see the opposite, among many influential people. People that believe it is time to go for a fight.

An agreement is better than conflict.

However, capitulation is not the same as an agreement. An agreement is based on concessions on both sides. On being able to demonstrate that conflict is too costly to both sides.

Unfortunately, we are not yet at that stage. We still believe that we can carry the argument without taking into account the other side´s interests. And vice versa. The other side is still convinced they will manage to impose their views.

It´s therefore time for the elders to come up with a wiser view of the relationship. It is time for a dialogue road map. 

To neutralise Islamic State terrorists is a priority

It is urgent to pull together an international response to the Islamic State terrorists. This is no time for further hesitation, for soul-searching strategies, for non-critical political considerations.

The key move at this stage is to form a coalition of like-minded states – that excludes Assad´s government and Iran – and agree on what needs to be done to neutralise the threat. Among other things, it is important to share intelligence on key IS leaders, on convoys and deployments, on depots, and make a much greater use of offensive drones. To contain and destroy should be the key objectives. 

On trust

The Bled Strategic Forum is taking place today and tomorrow. In Bled, of course, Slovenia. This is a new kid on the block of international strategic meetings but looks promising. The Slovenian government invests a lot on it. And it´s trying to make it the key annual event of the kind in the Balkans. It is also making use of it to promote Slovenia as a crossroads in that part of Europe, for politics and business.

This year´s event puts a lot of emphasis on trust. Trust is critical for good leadership. And it is rapidly disappearing from politics, commerce and social relations. That´s a major loss, and I agree with the proposition. No trust, no progress. No trust, no social cohesion.

The debate of matters like this one is important. They look soft but they are at the core of a better world. 

The UK is getting close to a very dangerous European crossroads.

Donald Tusk, who has just been appointed as the next President of the European Council, said at the end of the day that he cannot imagine the UE without the UK being a member. This is a wise statement. The UK´s place and future is within the Union. However, what we see more and more, in the UK, is that the populism against Europe is getting stronger and stronger. The chances of a no-vote that would force the UK to leave the EU are real. If that happens then both the UK and Europe would have lost. But that´s the nature of politics. One starts a process and then the process becomes a major avalanche. I am afraid that´s the case with the British referendum on the EU membership.

Unless Labour wins the next round of elections…but even in that case, once the dice are thrown it will be very difficult to stop the game or to nullify the outcome.