Sudan and South Sudan

For those who know well the key political players in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, it is difficult to believe those leaders are not playing some games in South Sudan. It is difficult to imagine they are keeping themselves at a prudent distance and not trying to strike some deals with Riek Machar, the head of the rebellion in the South.

The opposite is more likely.

For many reasons, of course, but above all for two main motives.

First, Khartoum is in the middle of a dramatic economic environment. There is very little foreign currency left, serious shortages of basic goods such as wheat, high unemployment and uncontrollable inflation. They need the oil revenues to keep flowing. And the wells are in the regions of South where Machar´s fighters are stronger. For Khartoum it makes then a lot of sense to be on Machar´s side.

Second, there are many in Sudan´s political establishment that have never accepted the independence of South Sudan. For them, Salva Kiir and his group in Juba are living reminders of the humiliation the North suffered. Whatever can be done to make them in South Sudan pay for such humiliation of the “Arabs” in the Sudan should not be missed. Creating havoc in the South is a good way of paying back.

Revenge is a way of life and a leading political approach in this part of world. 

UNPOL

What do you know about the work of the UN Police, UNPOL?

That was my question for today, at the request of a friend. And I spent part of the day writing about UNPOL. I called it notes about …as I thought these were just some brief comments about the subject matter. But it was no chore because I do consider the Police Division of the UN and their officers deployed in the field, about 13, 000 of them, as among the best support the United Nations can offer.

But I also noticed, once again, that the politicians and the public opinion are ill informed about the role of UNPOL in peacekeeping operations. Why?

Nairobi communiqué on South Sudan is biaised

It is clear that the crisis in South Sudan can only be resolved through political negotiations between the President´s camp and Riek Machar´s supporters. It cannot be imposed by communiqué, even if the communiqué is signed by a number of the region´s heads of state. In this context, today´s outcome of the Nairobi summit is a bit of a disappointment. And it is certainly not good enough in terms of the peace process. We need a different, more balanced and less formalist approach. 

South Sudan in an unstable region

The role being played by Ethiopia and Kenya in South Sudan deserves appreciation. The leaders of both countries have understood that the Sudanese crisis could rapidly unravel out of control and destroy the country´s fragile unity. It would also have a wider impact as it would contribute to destabilise some of the neighbouring countries as well.

Last year I wrote an essay on the impact of South Sudan´s emergency as a new unstable country on the region: Security and Stability. Reflections on the Impact of South Sudan on Regional Political Dynamics.

I think it is time to read it again. It is available on the NUPI website, the Norwegian Institute for International Relations, with the following link:
http://english.nupi.no/content/download/308614/1068211/version/1/file/NUPI+Report-SIP-7-Angelo-McGuinness.pdf

South Sudan calls for urgent political engagement

The UN Security Council approved an additional deployment of 6,000 troops to augment the peacekeeping presence of the mission in South Sudan, known by its initials as UNMISS.

This is basically a symbolic gesture with no immediate impact at a time of great urgency. The new soldiers are not available. The Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, has tried to re-deploy some of the peacekeepers actually employed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as well as in Liberia and Cote d´Ivoire. He has not been successful so far. It will be difficult to get that re-deployment as the Troop Contributing Countries will not approve such a move. Troops have been sent to country A and to transfer them to country B is always a lengthy process, and it is normally bound to fail.

The grave situation in South Sudan does require a different approach. It calls for political engagement with the leaders of the factions at war. That engagement has to be robust and bring together high level UN and bilateral envoys. It needs to be very impartial to be accepted by all the parties. And it has to happen now, it cannot wait.

That´s what we would expect the Security Council to decide. 

CAR and Chad, two neighbours

Since Saturday, two days ago, ten flights have taken place between Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, and N´Djaména, the Chadian capital. These air bridge is evacuating a large number of Chadian citizens, men, women and children, that for a long period had peacefully lived side by side with their neighbours, the Central Africans, but that are now being targeted by violent mobs. The CAR citizens now see the Chadians as Muslims and enemies.

This is indeed a very sad development.

There are still many Chadians camping at Bangui airport. Most of them will be taken out tomorrow.

As this is taking place, there is no real political process taking place to complement the military presence provided by the French and the African contingents. This basically means that the crisis is not being addressed. The soldiers cannot do more that establish some security pockets here and there. It is up to the politicians, to the regional and international leaders, to create a framework that should bring peace back. 

Crisis in South Sudan

South Sudan is in a mess. The crisis is deeper than many had thought. It has very strong tribal roots and that is the worst case scenario in a new country like South Sudan. The combatants are used to fight and it will very difficult to convince them that they have more to gain from a ceasefire and a political agreement than from being in charge of their part of the country. 

But the only way forward is to negotiate and to restore peace. A political arrangement is required. President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, the two leaders that matter in this crisis, need to compromise. They have to be told so and in very clear terms.

The UN mission needs to work closely with the neighbouring countries ‘governments in order to contribute to a political solution. It cannot accept to be side-lined. And it cannot run away from its political responsibilities.

  

2014 priorities

I have been asked to look into 2014. That´s the routine question that is always raised as we approach the New Year. And then we list a number of things that need to be looked at during the next twelve months.

I also did it this time. The list is long, notwithstanding the deliberate effort I made to keep it short and as focused as possible. I added, as a justification that we live in complex times. But that´s not a very convincing reason. We have to be clear about the critical issues, the ones that really make a difference and then give them priority attention.

Can we bring the list down to two or three key issues, in terms of EU internal policy, and another two or three, when it comes to external policy?

That would be the true test of strategic focus. 

Today´s EU Council made me think of a funeral wake

The EU Council meeting has just ended in Brussels. The atmosphere in the room was not good. There was more suspicion and rivalry around the table than willingness to address the key challenges. Some were just looking in the direction of Cameron and asking themselves why is it the UK has been accepted as a member? I am sure that one or two even recalled in their minds old man De Gaulle and is opposition to Britain´s membership, and might have thought he was a politician of vision.  Others might have looked in Samaras direction and wondered about Greece´s presence in the club. The same they thought could be said about Cyprus, Romania, Bulgaria, Portugal and some other countries. Then, there was Angela Merkel. I get the impression the leaders were just trying to spot any change in her posture and opinions, now that she has consolidated once again her authority within German politics.

And there were Van Rompuy and Barroso out there. They might have looked to some of the stronger and harsher leaders as two phantoms that are just dragging their feet in the EU corridors, as ghosts that wait for the village priest to come and exorcise them from the place. They are experiencing a painful end of term and everybody knows that. But they are not alone in their predicament. Baroness Ashton keeps them the company she can.

This is indeed a time of morose for the European leaders. Europe as a project is at standstill. 2014 will be a year without collective ambitions. Each country will try to keep afloat. And each leader will be just confined and paying attention to the domestic fires. The EU elections in May next year will come and go without capturing people´s attention.

We will see. 

Putin, our dear friend...

As we come closer to the New Year, I keep saying that one of the international concerns in 2014 should be about Putin´s Russia. The EU has to revise its strategy towards Moscow and move away from political confrontation.

Putin loves a good fight and will be very pleased to oblige. He will answer to fire with more fire. That will give him a chance to play on the Russian extreme nationalism, which is deeply entrenched in many segments of the population. He knows how to get political dividends from any foreign antagonism to the motherland.

I see him weaker when it comes to responding to cooperation proposals. We should look for chances to positively engage the Russians in some of the critical international challenges. That is the way forward in our relationship. And that will place Putin in a defensive position. 

Be clear about your priorities

The EU and the P5 – the five permanent countries in the Security Council of the UN – took long to recognize the strategic importance of the Sahel and Mali, specifically, for international peace and security.

They finally started looking at it as a priority geopolitical zone of major importance for the stability of a very wide area, North and South of the Sahara, including the EU states.

Now, the challenge is to keep the external partners focused on the region.

This was my key message at last week´s meeting of the 5 plus 5 Initiative, which brings together the Defence Ministers from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Malta with those from the Southern bank of the Mediterranean Sea, meaning Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and also Mauritania. 

To ignore the threats has also a cost

We keep talking about the cost of each peacekeeping operation, the funds required by proactive diplomacy and crisis prevention, the expenses related to military deployments in far-flung lands, etc.

But we never ask the other question: what would be the cost of inaction, what would be the financial, economic and human costs if we decide to remain out and passive?

There is indeed a cost if we help. However, sometimes that cost is just much smaller than the consequences of deciding to ignore.

This is certainly one example of a question that we have to start raising. 

Libya as a top prority for the French in 2014

The French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, stated yesterday in Monaco, at the World Policy Conference annual meeting, that Libya will be his country´s political priority for 2014 in the international arena.

This is a good choice. Libya is in a big mess and needs strong support to be able to re-establish law and order and control the many armed groups that are scattered throughout the country. If this happens it will have a very positive impact on the domestic democratization process as well as on the Sahel and North Africa regions.

The demise of Kaddafi open many Pandora boxes. It created major threats to peace and stability. It is now time to bring the genies back into their bottles and firmly lock them inside.

My hope is that France would be able to bring other countries on board in an alliance to re-build Libya. It is not easy, as EU states are more divided than ever and can´t agree on a common approach on North Africa. But within the EU there are enough governments that would accept that the Southern bank of the Mediterranean Sea is indeed a priority matter. 

EU needs to have a firmer approach towards Qatar and Saudi Arabia

The EU, and in particular the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, should spend more time engaging the North African countries on common security concerns. She should also actively engage the Saudis and the Qataris. Both have a lot of influence in North Africa and the neighbouring countries. And that influence is sometimes used to promote objectives and doctrine that play against stability in the region and have a direct impact of supporting radical views.

This type of proactive diplomatic action would achieve much greater results, if done in strategic way and from a firm position, than any EU military or police operation. Qatar and Saudi Arabia should be made to understand that they cannot play the fundamentalist card in the backyard of Europe.

We need to strategically engage with Algeria

EU has not paid enough attention to Algeria. Or, this country remains a key player in North Africa and has a critical influence on the Sahel and on the fight against radical armed groups. Furthermore, Algeria is pivotal if we want to promote greater cooperation in North Africa as well as a stronger partnership between the region and Southern Europe.

I very much advocate for a serious debate about engaging Algeria. That would clarify the lines of engagement between us and that country. And it would also make it clear that such link is important for our common interests. 

Reconciliation in Mali

On the day of Nelson Mandela Memorial, I found myself writing a few notes about reconciliation in a post-crisis political process. The point was to look at Mali’s situation and try to make some recommendations.

I thought of Mandela, and started by saying that enlightened leadership at the top level of national authority is fundamental. Then I added that that the other levels of political responsibility need to change their approaches towards the minorities as well and adapt a fair attitude that invites inclusiveness. Finally, we need to put in place mechanisms of appeasement at the community level, between neighbours, ethnic groups, local people. On a daily base, that´s where the proof of the pudding takes place. At the grassroots level.

Is all this happening at present in Mali?

My answer is very simple: I am afraid not.  

EU and Russia: the winter of a relationship

The political relations between the EU and Russia are going through a low point. And my advice is very simple: this is no time to make waves. Let the sleeping dog lie. This should be, on our side, the inspiring line for the next few months. Keep the engagement but keep it low intensity. Let´s be patient and distant.

However this should not prevent our side from working on a strategy for the future. Quietly, but firmly and with the right vision. 

Central Africa and the Sahel

I spent a bit of the day on the news and comments being produced about the dramatic events in the Central African Republic (CAR). And I end up the day very much amazed by the little knowledge people seem to have about the root causes of the current crisis. Then, I wonder how can the external players contribute to a finding a solution to a problem they do not fully understand?

I served in CAR from 1985 to 1989. Then, I came back in 2008 up to 2010, to be deeply involved with the unfolding events.

I vividly remember my discussions with President Bozizé. Including about the role of Muslim armed groups operating in the border areas with Darfur and South-Eastern Chad. And the growing tensions with pastoralists coming from the Sahel. CAR had obviously changed in its social set-up between my first and second stay in the region. And that change was not only a warning of the crisis in the making. It was, in many ways, one of vectors of much deeper and multifaceted transformation that is being imported from the arid lands of the North and moving into the Bantu areas of central tropical Africa. 

Madiba and the building of Africa´s self-confidence

Nelson Mandela achieved many great things. But there is one that is not fully understood by us in the Western world.

He gave the African people, men and women, self-confidence. People throughout Africa looked at Madiba, gained poise and dignity. Said differently, as they became aware of his example, they could finally believe that Africans can make it, transform their lives and critically contribute to changing the world for the better. 

Nelson Mandela

Nelson Mandela passed away this evening. He was an extraordinary man. A striking example of the often quoted statement: leadership matters and a great leader makes a historical difference.

Sometimes, when I thought and wrote about him, I was afraid that many of us are too small to fully grasp the amazing person Mandela was.

History has a very short and selective memory. But the history of our times will not forget Nelson Mandela. 

Relations with China require a EU common approach

Prime Minister Cameron´s visit to Beijing reminds me that there is no EU coherent policy regarding the relations with China.

It is true that there was a recent – about two weeks ago – summit meeting between Van Rompuy and Barroso, on the European side, and the new leadership of China. But it was more of an empty formality than an exercise on strategy. The Chinese play the game and seem to be very interested in a stronger relationship with the EU. But in fact, they are much more interested in their bilateral relations with a small handful of European countries. They know that national sovereignty feelings are coming back within Europe and they understand that better than the concept of a lose community of shared interests.

But the Chinese are difficult and complex parties to any agreement. They have a very strategic and subtle view of international partnerships, particularly with the West. That approach cannot be matched by a piecemeal approach, on our side, by a short-sighted view of each country´s interests. More. The Chinese leaders will take advantage of the competition that is now shaping the relations among the EU member states.

Are we poets or just fools?

EU has chosen the path of confrontation with Russia, when it comes to Eastern Neighbourhood policy. 

Politics is of course about choices. 

It is also about having a clear strategy, once the choices have been made. 

Choices without the appropriate strategy are just empty wishes. They belong to the realm of either the poets or the fools. 

Piracy in West African waters

Again on West Africa, this time on piracy: the Gulf of Guinea has experienced this year 30 sea incidents. In two cases, the local pirates have managed to capture the ships.

 Figures show that the Gulf has had more incidents this year than the Somalia waters -20 cases so far in that part of the Indian Ocean.  It is time to start discussing some big international operation in West Africa, even if its waters are no as vital as the East Africa ones for world trade. If the issue is not addressed soon the economies of the coastal states will be seriously impacted by the growing piracy. And soon we might even see an attack against one of the offshore oil platforms, either in Nigeria or in Ghana.

Radical Islam in West Africa

Kenema is a provincial head town in the South-Eastern region of Sierra Leone. Most of its residents are Muslims, as it is the case in several parts of the country. On 3 November 2013 the people there came to the streets and threw stones at the houses of local men they consider being religious extremists. They call them Al-Shabaab, because they have long beards, they belong to a strict sect of the Islamist faith and their wives are fully covered. And above all, they accuse them of being a hothouse for breeding future terrorists. The Sierra Leone Police had to intervene to bring some tranquillity back to Kenema.

This is new in Sierra Leone. But it is not unique to that West African country. In the recent years, one has seen an expansion of radical approaches to religious practice in different corners of West Africa. They cannot be linked to any violent action. However, they show that the radical preachers trained in Saudi Arabia for many years are now having an impact of the way these traditional communities see Islam. 

Imagination and intuition

With change taking place at such a fast pace, the organizations have to become very flexible and adaptable. Rigid structures will be on the losers ‘side.

Unfortunately, that´s the case with many government administrations and public institutions. They can´t change fast enough, they have their own inertia and therefore they face the risk of becoming an economic and bureaucratic burden at a time when they should be anticipating the future and be able to respond to the new challenges.

The concept of anticipation is also crucial. The leaders are those who can read the signs and foresee the next generation of threats and opportunities. Imagination is, more than ever, a very precious commodity. 

Are we moving back to the old approach to national sovereignty?

This morning I attended a discussion about the current meaning of national sovereignty in Europe. The discussants recognised that we live now in a context of limited and shared sovereignty. As members of the EU, the countries have transferred some of their national powers to the Commission or the Council. And they have also agreed that some key decisions do require the consensus of the membership. These have been important steps towards a supranational approach to the common good.

Everybody seemed to agree that the trend towards pooled State sovereignty will continue and that there will more co-responsibility in the future and less decisions based on a narrow approach to national interests. 

I think it is good to have an optimistic view of EU´s collective will. That´s what will take us forward.

But I am not sure about the next few years. European countries give the impression they are moving back to the old views about sovereignty. That will certainly be a wrong direction. However, one should be aware of the facts. And be prepared for less. Even when we aim at more.

EU unity is under erosion

It doesn´t sound good when European governments start focusing the public discourse on migration movements from one EU state to another and talk about curbing the free flow of workers. This is one of the pillars of the Union. A basic fundamental principle. To challenge it undermines further the purpose of the EU, it is another step, let´s be clear, towards European disunity.

It is also a way of reviving the old ghosts of ultra-nationalism and even xenophobia. For centuries, Europe was built of hard-nosed nationalistic politics. That made the Continent one of the most unstable and war-prone of all. Then, after the Second World War, the trend was reversed and a common dream was put together. That has given us almost 70 years of peace.

Now, that might be under threat. Gradually, like erosion, but dangerously changing in the wrong direction.

Development co-operation requires leadership

In a discussion this afternoon about development co-operation the OECD Development Aid Committee President, Erik Solheim said that leadership is essential for change to occur.

He knows what he is talking about as he himself was an important agent of change in his home country, Norway.

But I have the impression that leadership in the area of development is lacking nowadays. After the Busan (Indonesia) conference in 2011, where new principles for aid assistance were agreed upon, too much emphasis has been placed on partnerships and very little on the responsibility to lead the process. And when everyone is in charge nobody leads. Without clear and responsible leadership we see the UN (UNDP) and OECD struggling to get heard and to make things to happen. Or, UNDP and OECD should be accepted as the leading players in the field of international co-operation.

Co-operation is indeed about partnerships. But someone has to guide the process. If not, each player will go about it as he/she sees fit. And that is at present the case. 

Central African Republic

There is increased noise about the possibility of a UN peacekeeping operation in the Central African Republic (CAR). The friends of that country and of Africa should amplify the noise to make sure the key world leaders understand that such a mission is required. It should actually be on the ground soonest.

However, I am afraid the noise will not be strong enough. My sources tell me there is little chance to be able to find the troops and deploy soon enough. The UN is still struggling with its deployment in Mali. To add CAR to the list would be like adding complication to complexity.

But it has to be done.

And at the same time, it calls for decisions on the rapid phasing out of peacekeeping missions where they are no longer critical. That brings to mind Cote d´Ivoire and Liberia, for instance.

Il also reminds us that the UN Security Council has to be better at defining and monitoring exit strategies. Peacekeeping missions need to be goal oriented and time sensitive. 

An excellent agreement with Iran

The agreement Iran and the P5 plus Germany reached and committed to is a very positive development in matters of international security. It can also have a very constructive impact in the stabilisation of the Middle East. Iran is indeed an important player in the region. The move towards cooperation with the West and the key representatives of the international community can open the doors for other agreements.

And the next one should be on Syria. It is now rime to engage on the solution of that tragedy as deeply as these countries have engaged on finding o modus vivendi with Iran.

Now a side comment. Israel has called the agreement with Iran “an historic mistake”. The mistake is however elsewhere. The Likud leadership, and especially Prime Minister Netanyahu, need to realise that those who signed the accord with Tehran are not simple minded fellows. They know very well what is going on in Iran and in the region. They know where their interests lie. If they have signed that means very clearly the step is in the right direction. No doubt, gentlemen! 

Pyromania

Former Portuguese President Mario Soares is now an old man. But he is still very much involved in his country´s politics. And at present he is in a crusade against the current President, Cavaco Silva, and the Prime Minister, Pedro Passos Coelho. Soares is actively campaigning to get them to resign. He thinks that these two are the key culprits when it comes to the economic crisis Portugal is going through.

As he is a fighter, and remains so, notwithstanding old age, Soares does not give up. And sometimes, as he did a couple of days ago, he goes too far and gives the impression that he is inciting people to violently oppose the President and the Prime Minister. Even, to physically attack them.

He knows, of course, that advocating violence against the Head of State and the Prime Minister could be seen as a criminal initiative. Therefore, he gives the impression that he is advising both of them to quit before it is too late and violence erupts.

As they say, the old fox knows how to go about catching the chicken.

The only problem is that Soares is fuelling a situation that is already very tense. That is a bit of a worry for many of us who think that the country needs enlightenment, not fires. 

The plane was full

My flight this evening from Basel to Brussels was full. I was amazed. How could it be? Basel might be rich and industrious, Mulhouse, in France, is just next door, the German border is there as well, but still, these are somehow what I would call provincial areas.

I came to the conclusion, once more, that you open a link between two cities and then you just get a lot of passengers. Air travel has become like a second nature to many people. 

Soldiers and Police

I have just been invited to address a high level (ministerial) meeting on the security threats in the Sahel Region. 

The initiative is a good one, because the Sahel has an impact on North Africa and Europe and the meeting brings people from those two sides of the Mediterranean together. But the interesting thing is that the meeting is called by defence leaders. The military are indeed looking at the issue.

But my message to them will be, among other things, a very clear one: these matters call for a close cooperation between the military and the police establishments. They are an opportunity for both sides to work together and show they can cooperate. 

Libya needs a stronger partnership with the EU

Libya´s internal situation calls for enhanced international support. The EU leaders need to engage the Libyan authorities and make clear they are ready for a much stronger and more coordinated partnership with the country. Institution building and the restoration of state authority are key priorities. The international assistance should focus on them. And recognise that a chaotic Libya at the doorstep of Europe and in the margins of the Sahel is a major threat to our stability and to the security of the very fragile African states that are in the vicinity. 

Again on Israel and its neighbours

Following my post of yesterday about Israel and Iran, I got call this afternoon from a friend who is also very close to Prime Minister Netanyahu. The caller had just arrived from Israel. And I could notice two things: the country´s leadership is very unhappy with the way the Obama team is looking at Iran´s nuclear issue; they can´t understand why people in Washington are so eager to strike a deal with the Iranians; and then, the second point concerns Israel´s believe they will be able to take military action against the nuclear facilities in Iran and get the tacit but firm approval of many in the Middle East, including the Saudis. This is actually encouraging the hard liners in Jerusalem to go for the bombing.

All this adds instability and unpredictability to a region that is already in deep turmoil. It´s not good at all!

Israel and Iran

It would be a mistake to underestimate Israel´s strategic interests as we get closer to the next round of negotiations with Iran.

The country´s leaders see Iran as a major threat.

They will try everything – including in the Capitol Hill in Washington – to make sure that the pressure on Tehran is not eased out. And in their tricks box, there is the menace of unilateral military action against the nuclear installations in Iran. The public mentioning by the Israelis of such a possibility is in itself a way of convincing Washington that an agreement with Iran is only good if it is a lose-win accord.

 And that is not possible, as I see it, because no leader in Tehran will accept an agreement that looks like a defeat. 

Barroso´s final months

Barroso has now said, in a TV interview, he is not seeking a new mandate as President of the European commission. His mandate ends in October 2014.

This is a smart move. He has been facing serious opposition from different quarters. Everything started with former French President Sarkozy, who towards the end of his presidency had come to dislike Barroso. People thought that would change with Hollande´s investiture. That has not been the case. Actually, Hollande became an open opponent of many of the EC President´s initiatives. And other EU leaders have also gained cold feet. So, as Barroso announces he will be out of the way in less of a year´s time he gets some free space to make a couple of bold proposals. During the next few months, he will keep an eye on history and will try to strike an initiative that will be for many years associated with his name.

This might also be a chance to see a stronger head of the EC. Europe needs to hear more than a few rumblings. 

The Commonwealth and the atrocities

The Sri Lankan government is hosting the 2013 Commonwealth Summit.

The choice of Sri Lanka as this year´s organising nation has been deeply criticised in many quarters in view of the recent atrocities carried out by the Colombo leaders against Tamil civilians in the Northern tip of the country. It has also been perceived as an example of poor judgement, a feature that many believe is the defining trait of the current Commonwealth Secretary-general, Kamalesh Sharma, an Indian diplomat that has made a career under the protection of Sonia Gandhi and her party. But Sharma is above all too tired and just interested in staying in London as long as possible. He has very little influence and no strength of will. That´s what the Sri Lankans knew and took advantage of. And now, they are trying to make a lot of mileage out of the summit.

I think they made a mistake. President Mahinda Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka thought he and his friends would come out of this initiative cleansed. However, the meeting is actually reminding the international public opinion that thousands of innocent people were slaughter by the national armed forces in 2010, at the end of the civil war.  And that took place under the direct responsibility of Rajapaksa and the rest of the clique. 

Comprehensive peacekeeping operations

Yesterday we had a discussion here in Brussels among international staff about peacekeeping.

 My colleagues, who are well informed and widely travelled people, could not avoid the usual mistake in this type of discussions: to reduce peacekeeping to military operations, boots on the ground and many of them for that matter. They forgot, like many do, the important role Police play in peace support operations. I had to remind them that more and more often the security challenges these missions are facing have more to do with Police work than with soldiers ‘work. The UNPOL, for instance, has become in the last few years a major Police division in the UN Secretariat. It is also an example of the UN´s capacity to adapt to new demands.

And then beyond the Police, there are now thousands of civilian experts equally involved in peacekeeping. 

Their contributions in many areas make the current operations multidimensional and more comprehensive. 

The capital of Europe is a little village at heart

Belgacom, the Belgian telecommunications giant, could not protect us, the subscribers in Brussels, from an illegal intrusion into our accounts by the British espionage services. The GCHQ, the UK agency that spies on communications networks, has been able to gladly penetrate the Belgacom systems and extract all the information they deemed useful for their masters in London.

Why should one be surprised? I live in a street that is considered “very fine”.  Notwithstanding that I have a weak internet signal. Today, the Belgacom technician came to check, at my request – a request that was made two weeks ago and dutifully booked then to be implemented today. He told me that the line for my house derives from a box some 80 metres away. That´s not bad, I thought. But he added that the fellows that laid down the cables went around the block before reaching my house. Therefore, it was no longer an 80 metres journey but a long trek through the side and back streets. That explains why my signal is not strong enough.

He promised me they would now bring a straight line from the box to my place. When, I do not know. But soon, I am told.

I asked him about fibre cables. The answer I got was very clear. Belgacom has now approved the implementation plan to lay the fibre things. But he is now sure about the starting date of the up-dating.

Well, this is the EU capital. But I think they have not yet realised that at the telecomm company. Another proof of it is that we have no Al Jazeera in our channel list, I mean, no access to that key TV channel in English. If I want to watch it, it is in my room… in Arabic!

Recently I told this story to my friends in Foreign Affairs in Oslo. They couldn´t believe that a place like this one cannot access the English version of Al Jazeera. But they have to understand: Brussels keeps, in many ways, the features of a small town. And that is charming! And frustrating, as well!

The Armed Forces and the humanitarian response

I wrote yesterday that the response to the typhoon disaster in the Philippines calls for a deep involvement of the Armed Forces, both from the country and from outside – US, Australian, Malaysian, Indonesian, etc. The magnitude of the logistical challenges, particularly airlifting of assistance, can only be met by means available within the military. No civilian humanitarian organisation, including the UN, can gather the operational means it takes to bring food and shelter to the large number of victims, some of them in very remote areas.

Some of my humanitarian friends do not like the idea of having the soldiers implicated in humanitarian operations. And a couple of them told me they had serious issues with my post of yesterday. But my answer is very simple: this an extreme situation that fully justifies a very close collaboration between the humanitarian agencies and the Armed Forces. Thousands of lives are at stake and need urgent help. They can only get it if the cooperation takes place. No doubt about it.

And we have no time to waste on doctrinal issues. This is a time to move fast and effectively. 

Haiyan´s response is too slow

The international response to Super Typhoon Haiyan is rather slow and surprisingly modest at this stage. One of the reasons seems to be related to lack of leadership on the side of the international community. Every player is going about it on its own. There is no recognised leader, no visible coordinator of efforts.

The world emergency response mechanisms should be better prepared to tackle this type of major crisis. And apparently they are not.

Logistics are also a key shortfall. This is also very surprising. In the region there are major armed forces capabilities that could be mobilised to provide the logistical support. Actually, they are the only ones that have the vast operational means that are required to urgently assist the populations. Why is it not taking place? 

Haiyan and the international cooperation

Super Typhoon Haiyan has caused a major humanitarian disaster in the Philippines. I would like to see the EU emergency response machinery to be fully mobilised to provide assistance without any further delay. And to do so in close coordination with the UN.

Then, on a second phase, the donors should meet with the Manila government and be prepared to fund an extensive reconstruction and investment programme to rehabilitate and strengthen the resilience of the areas affected by the disaster.

You react to this by telling me I believe in a better world. Yes, I do. Enhancing international cooperation in situations like this is key step towards that world. 

A changing Middle East

We understand better the current negotiations in Geneva between Iran and the P5 plus Germany if we take into account two factors.

First, the economic situation in Iran. The sanctions against Tehran are biting and their oil is also losing the leverage it used to have, as the world moves into other sources of energy and other techniques to generate oil. All this is having a serious impact on the Iranian economy. The regime knows that a very urbanised and young country as theirs cannot accept austerity for too long. The leaders´political survival requires a compromise with the key western countries as well as with Russia and China. They know it.

Second, for the West, a long view of their strategic interests places much more emphasis on improving the relations with the Arab and Muslim world in the Middle East. The turmoil in Iraq and now in Syria is a serious menace for peace and stability in the region. It is also a very important generator of extremism and religious fanatics. In the end, the Muslim populations of that part of the world have a much greater weight than Israel. For that reason, we are seeing a gradual shift away from Israel´s positions and a clear intent to improve the diplomatic relations with the Muslim states in the region.

The regional geopolitics are changing fast. 

Spending time in Addis Ababa

I spent the last few days in Addis Ababa.

My last visit had been in the late years of the 90´s decade. Many things have changed since then. There is impressive economic growth and the city keeps transforming itself all the time. It has also been growing very fast. The country´s population growth rate is very high. Around two million people are added to Ethiopia´s population every year. When I visited Addis for the first time, in 1978, the total population figure was around 37 million, Eritrea included. Today, the Ethiopians are over 86 million, Eritrea not counted, as it has become another country.

These numbers carry major challenges. No country can move fast enough to respond to such a population pressure. Even if the economic growth rate is very high, as it is the case in today´s Ethiopia. And you have to add to it major social inequalities and the tensions that come from ethnic diversity and different strong religious identities.

The government has been able so far to manage these threats. It has kept a very heavy lid on this boiling pressure cooker. The state control is still very ubiquitous. However, the key question is now: how long can this control last as the young people become more and more numerous and urbanised?

To pay or not to pay?

A couple of days ago four Frenchmen that had been kidnapped in Niger three or so years ago were released by their captors. 

Kidnapping of Europeans became, a few years ago, a new business line for the many bandits that operate in the vast and lonely sands of the Sahel and Sahara.

I was, at a given time, involved in combatting that type of crimes. And it was said, already then, that the French are always ready to pay ransom money. Therefore, for the armed bandits to kidnap a French citizen was the best move. There was good money at the end of the line.

And this time again, there has been a payment. €20 million is a good sum. It was paid by a private company, we are told. But for the fellows out there, money is money, be it from the State or from a deep private pocket.

In the end, the question that matters is clear: should ransom money be paid to get kidnapped persons released? The answer is not that simple. At least, for some. 

Individualism is a key value of today´s world

The political leaders seem to have lost control, in several countries, of their national security apparatus.

The espionage saga is still very much unfolding. It is certainly undermining President Obama´s international prestige. And that´s a pity, for many reasons. But it will end up by undermining other leaders ‘reputations as well, I fear.

It is quite obviously that the EU leaders are in hot water: either they were not aware of their services´ activities, or they are trying to deceive us. In any case, it is not good news. If they were not aware, that means they can easily be fooled. I would not be surprised, in some cases.

On the other hand, if they are trying to mislead the public opinion about what they really knew and about their hidden intentions, they are missing two important points: people have presently more access to information than ever and they will end up by knowing what is going on; secondly, people´s privacy is a key issue today as it was yesterday; one should not confuse participation in social networks with willingness to disclose every aspect of one´s life. Privacy remains a very valued feature of today´s life. It is actually linked to individualism, a key dimension of the modern times. 

Mozambique needs help

In Mozambique, the security and political environment have deteriorated fast during the last four of so weeks.

The political stress between Renamo, the former guerrilla group that became the key opposition party after the peace agreement of the early 90s, and the government led by Frelimo has flared up. There has been some armed violence between the two, albeit very localised and contained. But the tension remains unresolved. It can easily escalate and lead to deep conflict.

In the main urban centres there has been a series of criminal kidnappings for ransom. In one the recent cases, in Beira, the little boy that had been taken was murdered by the bandits. These actions are creating a lot of fear. They add to other types of crimes that are very common in the cities, such as burglaries and armed robberies. The Police seems unable to cope.

On the top of it all, there have been serious accusations of corruption against the close relatives of the President and other political figures. The President himself has a very tarnished image. He has vast business interests. Many believe that his control of business and wealth is related to abuse of power and traffic of influence.

It is sad to see the country moving into crisis. This has been a good example of post-conflict recovery. And also of economic growth. It cannot become now a bad example of bad leadership.

And the external friends of Mozambique need to wake up. Their help can make a difference. 

On leadership again and always

Leadership requires a firm voice. To be loud is not the point. It only adds noise. It is to be perceived as clear and brave that matters.  

Cameron and the EU

During last week´s EU summit in Brussels, the UK Prime Minister showed a more positive approach towards the European institutions, particularly the EU Commission. For those who have seen his past attitudes, he was a different man. The speculation regarding his change of mind is wild and many reasons have been mentioned in the last couple of days. I have no sure answer. But I suspect he has been listening to the key business representatives in London and throughout the UK. For them, a referendum on Europe, as promised by David Cameron, would be a serious mistake. It would give too much space to the inward, nationalistic politicians and could result in a No vote. The big British companies do not want that to happen. 

Code of conduct for intelligence agencies

The on-going row over the US espionage practices should become an opportunity to discuss intelligence cooperation between the two sides of the Atlantic. It should also be used by the Europeans to better define the potential threats to their national and economic security and take the appropriate protective measures.

As I say it, I also recognise that intelligence remains one of the key features of a country´s sovereignty. But this should not prevent the EU countries from integrating better those dimensions of the services that have to do with responding to common threats. And, at the same time, they should protect themselves from intrusion, including when that spying comes from a friendly ally.

It is also time to have a code of conduct and a list of best practices that would guide information collection in a democratic environment. And get national parliaments to appoint independent ethics commissions that would be charged with the overseeing of intelligence activities in their respective countries. These commissions would then be guided by the above-mentioned code of conduct. 

Security obsessions

The US say, through the National Security Agency (NSA) that President Obama was not aware that Angela Merkel’s telephone had been “monitored” by American spies. Nobody would believe it, of course. But this is the right answer to be given, at this stage. It offers everyone a way out.

And tomorrow public opinion will have moved on to other subjects. Merkel and Obama will carry on. They will reaffirm they are allies. Some token gestures will be made. They have little choice but to be seen pulling in the same direction.

And NSA, on its own, will continue its job as well. And, as usual, in a very obsessive way. There might be an enemy behind the hundreds of millions of calls and mails they catch every day.

Azerbaijan

I have walked every street of old Baku in Azerbaijan and I like it. This is a city of Shia culture, like in Iran, but so different from Iran. Baku is a very Westernised place. It is very culturally open and diversified, with excellent ballet and opera performances on show. It might not be the best example of transparent governance. But it is a good case study for those who want to find out how politics can change the mind sets of the population.   

Congested roads and congested minds

As it is often the case, the motorway between Antwerp and Brussels was clogged this afternoon around 4:00 pm. You just need two things to drive at that time of the day between the two cities: a lot of patience and plenty of spare time. 

The economic and human costs of the congested road are huge. And there is little that can be done to alleviate the pressure. The train option is there, it´s true. But entrepreneurs are used to have the trucks coming to their gates and taking the goods straight into the clients´ door step. And people are too dependent on their personal vehicle that they prefer to waste time sitting on it than to make use of public transportation.

But this situation is untenable. Sooner or later it will have to change. And we should start by changing our minds first. And fast. 

Naïve Merkel

Again, as I listen to Angela Merkel and her reactions to the spying the US practices all over the world, I get a bit nervous. How could she be so naïve and believe the US would not seek to spy on her? This is a matter of great concern if we take into account that her naïveté is combined with an immense political power. Easy to fool leaders are in charge and one can only feel very uncomfortable that is the case. If she cannot see the threats coming from the friends, how can she deal with the danger coming from the enemies? 

Mali security sector

The EU Training Mission in Mali is moving in the right direction. The European instructors are now training the third Malian battalion and motivation is high.

As that happens, it is quite clear that the resources available in the donors´ Trust Fund for Peace and Security in Mali are not sufficient. USD 7 million is little money for the reorganisation of the national armed forces. And the outstanding pledges, for the next steps, are even smaller. It is necessary to call the attention of the international partners to the importance of this matter. The results of the EU training will be lost very quickly if financial resources are not made available to complement them.

The second point here is that Mali needs a mirror training programme for the national police and the gendarmerie. These two institutions are very weak. They have to be fully revamped. That requires trainers from outside and also resources. Both are missing at this stage. 

The need for a cultural change in Mali

I gave a public lecture yesterday in Brussels about the situation in Mali. One of the key issues under discussion was the reconciliation among Malians. A very difficult issue, I knew, as the events of 2012 and the early part of 2013 in the Northern Regions had a major negative impact on trust. Each ethnic group withdrew inside its own identity and became very suspicious of every other ethnicity.

It is an issue that is not moving fast enough, at a time when many other parts of the transition process are gaining momentum. And yesterday, during the discussions that followed my presentation, I came to the conclusion that many Malians are not really ready to reconcile. They tend to look at the Tuareg and other nomadic people from the North of Mali with a certain degree of contempt. And the nomads return the favour and see the black Malians as people that are not really interested in sharing power.

I got the impression that the leadership needs to be talked to into a cultural revolution. They have to change their views. The external partners should help them to do so. This is a priority task. 

Fuels for development In Africa

My new research paper of energy and sustainable development in Africa is available at :

http://www.fuelfreedom.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Fuel-Africa_FINAL.pdf

This study, done in collaboration with Dr Kate McGuinness, was discussed in late September in New York at a breakfast organised as part of the annual meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative.

The radical right is on the offensive

Globalisation and international migrations tend to generate the impression, in the EU public opinion, that that the world out there has become a threat to our standard of living, our jobs, culture and values.  Protectionist ideas are easily gaining ground and can become the extremist banner behind which people could rally. In many ways, both ends of extremist political spectrum can make use of these fears. But it is above all an easy ride for the radical right. They are the ones that can gain more from the exploitation of such feelings. And that explains in no small measure the advances of the right wingers in many parts of the European Continent. And we can expect more of it as well.

NUPI

I spent a good deal of the day at NUPI, the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. And as usual, I was very impressed by their applied research in the area of peace and security. They are certainly a reference institution when it comes to assessing peacekeeping operations as well as proposing new approaches to field deployments. They have done pioneer work on the issue of civilian capacities and are pretty substantively engaged in looking at the Police dimension in peacekeeping. Police has been the poor link in the peacekeeping field missions. 

Russia and the West have to cooperate.

The political and security relations between the West and Russia are currently in deep water.  There is renewed suspicion on both sides. It is critical to understand the reasons and address the problem. Europe cannot entertain a new level of tension with her neighbour to the East. It is not in our interest. Can´t we understand this?

On the other side, Russia should get the point that a confrontation with the West would be to her disadvantage. Technologically the Russians are behind. They would be a tough target but in the end they would be vulnerable.  Can´t they understand this point?

Forget the reform of the UN Security Council

The reform of the UN Security Council has been on the table for the last 20 years. And there is been no progress. The Permanent 5 (P5) are the ones blocking the change that should take place. They have the veto power and believe that their standing in the world is above every other nation. How can that be? How can France or the UK believe they yield more power than India or Brazil? 

It is now quite obvious that the reform will not happen in the foreseeable future. As an alternative, it is important to reinforce the authority and the legitimacy of other international groupings of nations, such as the African Union, the EU or the Arab League. Their capabilities to deal with matters of peace and security, as well as with economic coordination and development should be seriously enhanced. 

Crisis response: Moving beyond strategic games, ineffectiveness and indifference

 It is time to discuss the new trends in the international community´s response to major peace and security challenges. As globalisation advances, violent conflicts in a far flung corner of the world can easily gain a wider dimension and have a regional or even a larger impact. They also tend to have dramatic humanitarian consequences, hand in hand with extremely serious human rights violations.

Is the international machinery ready to address such threats in an urgent and comprehensive manner? What to do if the UN Security Council is unwilling to agree on an appropriate response? How to address the issues of urgency and comprehensiveness? Is development assistance, as practiced during the last decades, geared towards strengthening human security and reinforcing peace building? How is public opinion in the developed world being influenced when it comes to reacting to crisis in distant lands? 

Norway and the UN

Today´s decision on this year´s Nobel Peace Prize shows again how attached the Norwegians are to the UN and the organizations that make the UN System.

I have worked with many developed states. And I have always noticed how much the Norwegians appreciated the work of the UN.  The leaders and the public opinion in Norway believe in the UN and would feel safer in a world where the very big countries would accept a larger role for the international organizations.

You might believe there is some naiveté in the Norwegian attitude towards the UN. It might be somehow true. But dreams are important. And sometimes they become real. 

The absence of an immigration policy

One could again notice in the recent days that the EU has no common policy on immigration. The states still look at the issue as a national matter and not as a common challenge. The resources made available to FRONTEX, the agency charged with the EU border policing are clearly insufficient. Moreover, the leaders do not take a comprehensive approach and deal with the issue with one tool only - border control - when it is clear that other measures are necessary. Without a combination of approaches, combining policing with diplomacy, development assistance, strategic communications, and an integration policy, we will continue to see the misery boats crossing the Mediterranean in search of the next tragedy. 

New threats call for new responses

The US Navy Seals operations over the week end in Libya and Somalia, to capture well known terrorist leaders raise a number of questions, in terms of international law. But above all, they beg the question about how current and adjusted to today's world is the fight against international terrorism. This is a debate that has yet to take place: how to respond to multinational terrorist groups.

They represent a new threat to international peace and security. They cannot be fought with conventional means. And they cannot be convinced that they will be safe in weak states or in chaotic societies. They have to understand that global terrorism calls for a global response.

And that was certainly the key message the US has sent this week end across many parts of Africa and elsewhere. The US might have gone beyond the accepted norms. But we need to consider that the old ways of addressing new challenges need to be thought through. With a new approach to national sovereignty and the legitimate use of force. 

EU and India: a partnership that needs to be explored

The political and economic partnership between the EU and India deserves greater attention. The European leaders seem blind to the potential of such an alliance and how much it would weight on China.  China’s global interests would then be matched by a strong EU-India alliance.

I keep repeating that our leaders need to be much more strategic in the relations with India. The EU has a good representative in Delhi, that‘s not the problem.  The issue resides in the fact that our leaders are not investing enough in building a strong relationship with India. They are too concerned with trying to come to terms with China and its commercial and industrial expansion. They do not see the opportunities. 

Hollande's circuit breaker

President François Hollande of France should sack the Prime Minister and implement a Cabinet reshuffle to show that he is in control and not afraid of taking decisions. The Cabinet is more divided than ever. Its public contradictions have a damaging impact on the President’s image. In these cases, the Prime Minister should be like the fuse that blows when the current is excessive.  I am afraid however that Hollande might not have the necessary guts to act.   

Central Africa

The Central African Republic (CAR) is now a failed state.

The capital city, Bangui, is controlled by armed groups of uncertain origin. They are most likely dominated by warlords from Southern Darfur and Eastern Chad. They have little to do with CAR’s main ethnic groups but they are allied to Central Africans from the North-Eastern border areas. These are Muslims in a country that is largely Christian.

Besides the capital, there are other armed groups and several “self-defence” committees. But there is no central authority, no law and order, no administration and no modern economy. It is just chaos and extreme hardship.

The situation can easily spill over into some of neighbouring countries. They are also very fragile. They could become the next prey of the roaming armed men.  

The African Union has pledged to send a peacekeeping force to the country. It will be difficult for the AU to be able to mobilise the force and the resources required. It will also be a very delicate mission because of the religious divide that is now taking place, for the first time in the history of CAR.

The international community should understand that the country needs, urgently, not at the pace the AU can mobilise itself, a very robust international force, with full executive powers.

It is the survival of CAR’s population that is, first and foremost, at stake. But not only. It is an entire region. A region that is already the least stable of Africa. 

Global America

President Obama’s address, this afternoon, about the health coverage initiative and the shutdown of government services, will certainly have an important impact on American public opinion. The finger pointing at the Republicans was very effective. I think it is the right approach. The pressure on the Republican Party should convince its leaders that it is in their electoral interest to find a way out of the current crisis. The sooner they do it the better as the continued shutdown will end up by having a major impact on the economy both in the US and elsewhere. Today’s world is too interconnected for us, Europeans, to say this is a mere American issue. It is not. We will end up by being concerned as well.  

Austria's general elections

Austria went to the polls this weekend for general elections. Outside the country not a lot of people have paid attention to the event. Therefore, they failed to notice a very serious increase in the popular support for the right-wing populists and the Euro-sceptics. Together they collected more than 30% of the votes.

This is bad news for those who would like to push for more European integration. However, the governing grand coalition of Social Democrats (SPÖ) and conservative People's Party (ÖVP) is expected to continue in power. They got 50.9% of the vote. This is small and one would not be surprised if some of their new policies are no more than an adaptation of what the Right-wingers and the Euro-sceptics have advocated during their electoral campaigns. One of those policy lines has to do with a tougher stance when it comes to bailing out other EU member states.