Brussels cancels the New Year...

The Brussels mayor has just decided to cancel tomorrow´s fireworks and other street celebrations that were planned for New Year´s night.

A lot of people seem to be shocked by the decision. They basically argue that it gives up to all those who aim at destroying our way of life. They see it as capitulation.

My advice is to accept it and also to consider that such a decision was certainly not taken lightly. I see behind it a lot of ponderation, analysis and discussion among people who know the situation.

Actually, if we take into account that the mayor opted for it, notwithstanding the many costs it carries, including those related to the reputation of the city, we should also conclude that the menaces are much more real than what we had thought. And such conclusion is certainly a matter of concern. 

Model politician 2015

My question of yesterday about the model politician in 2015 has been responded to by a number of friends. And obviously, Angela Merkel and Pope Francis came out as this year´s top leaders.

I am certainly in agreement. But for different reasons, I found John Kerry the most inspiring politician of the year. He is no longer a young man. At his age, many would be writing their memories or playing golf.

Not John Kerry. He has shown energy, determination, optimism. He has achieved results in an environment, both domestic and international, that was far from favourable. I decided therefore to recognise his untiring efforts in the opinion piece I have just written and that will be published in tomorrow´s edition of the Visão magazine in Portugal. 

Who should be considered the model politician in 2015?

Close to the end of the year, I ask myself who should be considered the model politician in 2015.

I have a small number of names in mind. And I realise how much this list is influenced by the big global TV channels. The faces we see more often on those screens have a greater chance of being considered the top players. We tend to forget that some of these politicians produce a lot of smoke and know how to play the mirrors game. But in the end, they had very little impact in terms of improving people´s lives. They might have made things even more complicated.

Who to choose then? 

Poland is adding new challenges to the EU

Poland´s new political situation, with the Law and Justice Party (PiS) as the governing force, was the top headline in today´s Le Monde. The French newspaper, a reference daily for many in Europe, focussed its analysis and comments on the PiS-supported government´s efforts to take control of the Constitutional Court of Poland and on its very conservative, nationalistic and authoritarian political agenda. It also made reference to the new approach being followed in Warsaw towards the EU. That approach is certainly perceived as not very constructive and is clearly clashing with the policies adopted by the EU institutions and most of the member states.

Poland´s new leaders will bring additional challenges in 2016 to the European project. There was no need for that addition. But it has to be taken into account as the country is an important player within the Union.

MENA´s challenges

The total population of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is close to 400 million. Of those, more than 50% are under the age of 25. And a very good number of these young people have no jobs. In Saudi Arabia, for instance, the youth unemployment rate is about 28% and this figure is most likely grossly underestimated. And Saudi Arabia is one of the best in the pack…

Furthermore, during the last 15 years or so there has been a very rapid expansion of the number of university graduates throughout the region. In many cases, the university degrees they obtained have only very weak links with the market needs. But the fact of the matter is that the economies of the region – in those countries that still have a working economy – are not able to respond to the job demands.

There is plenty of youth frustration. And this is now a frustration in urban settings as MENA has one of the highest urbanization rates in the world. Frustration of city dwellers leads to the most explosive type of rebellion.

Furthermore, the population growth rate, which is around 2% per annum, is only second to the one in Africa. The numbers are moving fast. They add additional complications to a situation that is already particularly challenging.

Regional leaders seem to be looking elsewhere. And we, in our part of the world, prefer to focus on the symptoms. And not to engage in a meaningful dialogue with them.

Good examples coming from Spain

The Spanish general elections revealed a very high participation rate – close to 73% - a strong support to two grassroots movements, one at the left of the spectrum, Podemos, and the other at the centre, Ciudadanos. The conclusion is that Spaniards feel committed to parliamentary democracy and want to be heard. As a result, there is a true renewal in the political circles. This should be example to be followed by other European countries, including France next door.

It is also a fact that the outcome of the elections has brought some serious fragmentation to Parliament. But I see that as a positive move. It will require the parties to seek alliances and compromises. And that´s how politics in the EU member states should be. 

Syria: the key Foreign ministers should remain closely engaged

One can have plenty of doubts about the realism and feasibility of the UN Security Council resolution on Syria, adopted yesterday. However, in view of the extreme complex situation the country is going through, a situation that has lasted now for too long, any move by the UN should be appreciated and encouraged. Particularly this one that has been discussed at the level of Foreign ministers. Actually, the continued personal involvement of the ministers will be required as we go into the implementation phase. That´s the best way to ensure that they see this process as being under their direct responsibility. The UN Special Envoy, Staffan de Mistura, can be the personification of the international community´s commitment to Syria. But he will need the unswerving support of the key ministers. That will be key for any progress to take place. 

Making the distinction between humanitarian and development aid

At present, with the refugee crises and the displacements of people in many countries, the humanitarian funding needs are exceptionally high. Several donor countries have markedly increased their contributions during the last few months. Among them, the European Commission and some EU countries, as well as the US, have shown leadership. They are again among the top contributors to humanitarian assistance.

The challenge is to finance the humanitarian response without cutting the aid development budgets. These should be seen as two different strands within the international cooperation finances. But the fact of the matter is that in several countries the humanitarian resources are generated these days by diverting development money to meet immediate requirements. The development assistance resources for 2016 will be seriously affected, if this trend is not reversed. 

EU meets on Brexit and clarifies nothing

There will be another EU summit here in Brussels tomorrow. This time the main course on the table should consist on the British future within the Union. 

UK Prime Minister Cameron wants the other European leaders to set the principles that will guide the bureaucrats’ work during the next couple of months as they will draft the response to Britain´s demands. He expects the leaders to be generous and therefore ready to support his views. Cameron thinks there is no way for his position not to be accepted. EU leaders want, in his opinion, to keep the UK in and will therefore cave in.

I think the leaders will indeed be soft on Cameron. Not because they agree with his exigencies. They actually think he is unreasonable. They will accept a softer line just because they are too distracted with their own national concerns and with other matters such as the common response to the refugee flows to be bothered at this stage by the British domestic politics.

And that´s a risk. In such matters the more you let the situation go undefined the greater the risk of later clashes. But this is the way the EU leaders do business at present. 

Human Development Report 2015

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has launched today its 2015 edition of the Human Development Report.

This is an annual compilation of data and indexes that has become during the last 25 years a major reference document to compare how each country of the world is doing in terms of addressing social and human progress.  Each edition contains also a state-of-the-art reflection about a critical dimension of human development. This year´s theme is about work. As it has been the case with past reflections, the texts included in the report do raise quite a number of innovative approaches to work, jobs and human dignity. 

Marine Le Pen tonight

The outcome of the French regional elections is now clear. I mean, it shows that the Front National (FN) of Marine Le Pen keeps attracting new supporters as time goes on. It will be, sooner or later, a major democratic challenge for France and a huge headache for Europe. We better be aware of that. And address, as we can, the issues that explain the FN´s political expansion. We should do it before it is too late. 

COP21: good news!

Laurent Fabius, the French Foreign Minister, has been an excellent chair of the Paris Climate Change Conference. Tonight´s global agreement on an action plan is in many ways due to his wise leadership of the COP21 meeting. As we celebrate the agreement that has been reached we should also recognise the work the minister has done during the last two weeks.

And this is good news for the world, for the future and also good news for the French government. François Hollande´s government has been a weak player on the European front. Today´s success brings a little bit of lustre to Hollande and his team. That´s important as the prestige of France is one of the key elements that contributes to a more balanced Europe. 

Human rights

We should remember and celebrate the day: Human Rights Day.

For many, in different corners of the world, human rights remain an unfulfilled aspiration. That´s their main concern.

Our responsibility is to denounce those regimes that deny the basic rights people are supposed to enjoy. And we should make it clear that a society that actively recognises the rights of its citizens is on the correct path towards development and peace. 

A giant called Angela

Time magazine has selected Angela Merkel as “person of the year”.

I fully agree. The Chancellor has shown leadership, particularly when the challenges Europe was confronted with gained a menacing dimension. In many ways, she kept the EU together. Her stature looked even greater when compared with the ones assumed by the other actors.

She is a woman in the midst of a number of political dwarfs. 

Our European problems and Cameron´s

There is very little time, these days, to think about David Cameron and his conditions for the UK to remain within the EU.

France and Marine Le Pen´s initial electoral victory are taking a lot of the attention span available. And there are good reasons for that. Le Pen´s race to power needs to be stopped. And the concerns of her voters must be responded to at the same time. These are two immense jobs. They concern not only the French but all those in the vicinity who believe in a united Europe.

Then, there is the fight against terrorism. The key issue is to devise approaches that could effectively prevent the radicalisation of some young Europeans. There is a lot of debate about the issue of radicalisation but not enough concrete ideas on how to tackle it. The competition for new ideas is open.

The immigration issue is still unresolved. That adds a very heavy burden to the European agenda. And the longer it takes the more complex it becomes. The first step here is to strengthen the Schengen external borders. But there are many other things that need to be dealt with, including the very serious challenge of integrating those who are already in. This task is now particularly complex in view of the current change of opinion about the massive presence of Muslim populations in the European space.

In the midst of these very critical issues the UK´s referendum looks very much like Cameron´s self-created problem. He will have to take the lead in sorting it out. He knows that his key financial masters want the UK to stay in the EU. He also understands he cannot deceive them. He has therefore to be smart and imaginative. What a challenge!

A day in life

I had planned that I would end today by saying thank you to a very good number of friends.

I still want to do it, as I am very touched by so many messages and calls I received throughout the day. It is a privilege to have some many friends in so many corners of the world. Well, after spending a full life on the road, what else could I expect?

But beyond the words of acknowledgment and gratitude, I have to place one or two of anxiety in view of the results in France.

The end of the day brought in the news about the National Front (FN) of Marine Le Pen and its big jump forward in the regional elections.

Radicalism is certainly not good for the future of France and also not good for the European common project. Le Pen´s electoral growth shows we have a real problem with a good number of citizens that feel discouraged and see the EU has a threat. This adds one more critical challenge to a list that has already some very dangerous lines on it. 

Brussels: life goes on

I walked the streets of central Brussels last night and was happy to see so many people enjoying the festive spirit of these days leading to Christmas. That´s how life in our part of the world is. That ´s normalcy. And that´s what I would like to see in other corners of the planet as well: people enjoying the freedom of being together in peace. 

Hate or madness?

It is indeed too early to jump to conclusions but the mass killings in San Bernardino, California, raise a number of very worrisome questions. And these are not just about the access to weapons in the US. They would certainly be related to the growing culture of hatred we see taking roots in our societies. Is it so, or are dealing with another isolated drama? 

Dealing with the terrorists in a comprehensive manner

The number of players against the terrorists of the Islamic State is increasing by the day. There is a growing military engagement from the West in Syria and Iraq, in addition to the forces committed by the region and by Russia. There is even some military coordination with Assad in Damascus.

All this is fine. It shows the extraordinary concern that is shared by a good number of countries. IS represents indeed a very serious challenge to the region and to our part of the world as well. It has to be defeated. But I am afraid that the military response might not be enough to settle this major challenge. Even if we take into account the forthcoming deployment of some US Special Forces units, a decision that should be supported.

The military response is the easy response to IS. We need a political strategy too. And I can´t see it, neither in Baghdad nor in Damascus and even less so in Europe.

People say the comprehensive strategy will come. Good. In meantime, we should understand that this crisis is a long term affair. 

AIDS remains a major problem

The big names in the media have a full plate these days. Too many things going on, from the climate change meeting to Russia passing through Turkey…Therefore, there was no striking mention of today´s World AIDS Day. Pity. AIDS remains a major issue for many people and a major cause of impoverishment for communities that are already struggling. It cannot be forgotten. Once a year, at least, AIDS has to be part of the headlines. 

There is some hope in Paris

There is a fresh breeze of optimism at the beginning of climate change conference. The world leaders’ meeting of today heard quite a number of nice words about the possibility of an agreement by the end of COP 21.

Let´s hope that will be the case. And that some kind of an accepted monitoring mechanism is put in place to keep track of the commitments made by more than 180 States, those that have already prepared a national plan on renewable energy.

The final document might not be a binding agreement. It might be just a shared pledge. But the monitoring system will help a lot in terms of naming and shaming those countries that might get off-track.

It is also important that the major world corporations be invited to commit themselves to the goals of carbon reduction and to invest on cleaner production and commercial processes. They can play a major role. Moreover, by going green they might be able to make some additional bucks. There is indeed a lot of money to be made during the next few years of new technologies, on research and development, and on marketing blue and green products and services.

Celebrating the Pope in Bangui

The visit of Pope Francis to Bangui should be highly commended. He took the right decision, notwithstanding all the advice he got, from different countries and institutions, against such a visit on grounds of security. He has shown that leaders ought to be brave. That´s what people expect from leaders. He has also sent the message that conflicts, even very dramatic crisis like the one the Central African Republic experienced during the last two or three years, can only be solved if national efforts are supported by the international community. And that should be the case in CAR.

It was also very sad to see that the media keeps referring to religion and religious differences as the causes of violence in the country. The issue is much deeper. Religion is just a tag, an identification of sides in conflict. The true issues have to do with migrations into the country of pastoralists from much further North, deforestation and climate change, threats to traditional farming, livelihoods, and chaotic urbanization. And on top of all that, very low level leaders for decades, very often with the protection of political elites from Europe.

My fear is that once Pope Francis has left Bangui the country will fall back into the dark well of forgetfulness. It has been in that realm for so long. 

Getting ready for the EU-Turkey Summit

The next summit between the EU and Turkey will take place this Sunday in Brussels. The key issue, on the European agenda, is about migrations and the role the government of Ankara could play to control the flux from Turkey to Europe.

Turkey will be represented by its Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu. He is a smart negotiator. He knows he comes to Brussels in a strong position and he will take advantage of that to try to obtain as many concessions from the Europeans as possible. He wants more money to compensate Turkey´s for the refugee presence in the country, visa facilities for the Turks, and a firmer calendar for the negotiations related to his country´s accession to full EU membership.

The EU side should balance the Turkish position with a couple of requests that will put Davutoğlu at his place. The Europeans should remind him that freedom of the press is a critical criteria for European membership. On this, Turkey is going squarely in the wrong direction. They should also recall that human rights and the rights of the minorities are key pillars in any democracy. They have to be enshrined on the Constitution and fully implemented.

These reminders would level off the discussion. They will also show the Turks we see them as important partners but we are not afraid of talking the talk and be frank. That´s how diplomacy needs to be carried out in the days of now.   

Wishing the new Portuguese government well

We have now a new government in Portugal. It is a Socialist-based team but with the support of two left-wing parties, as they like to call themselves: the Leftist Block, some kind of SYRIZA-like group, and Communist Party, a very Conservative assembly of old and new nostalgic fellows who still believe that the fall of Soviet Union was a major disaster.

However, Antonio Costa, the new Prime-minister has been wise enough to put together a Cabinet that can be perceived as relatively moderate. And in his inaugural speech, Costa made the right use of the word “moderation”.

It is true that not everyone within the Socialist Party is for moderation. But if the leader pulls in the right direction, the rest might follow. They will keep in mind that in our type of democracy one´s political survival is very much related to being able to say yes to the Party leader.

The key question is about Parliamentary support. How long will Costa be able to keep the votes of its allies before a major political row takes place? There will be a fracture, I have no doubt about it. The point is that we don´t know how soon it will happen.

In the meantime, one should wish the new ministers good sailing, favourable winds. 

Politics are about choices

Moderation and alliances should be the key drivers in international politics. Moderation can only be based on principles and values. And alliances are only to be sought with those who share the principles and values that guide our own actions.

Russia should follow a diplomatic approach

It would be a serious misjudgment to ignore the gravity of today´s incident between Turkey and Russia. Both countries are led by hawks and when that type of birds clash one gets hurt. It is therefore in our interest, as NATO allies, and in the interest of a political solution to the conflict in Syria to help both sides to de-escalate the confrontation.

One can expect a political response from the Russian side. And that´s acceptable. But it should remain a diplomatic move. Everything beyond that could easily get out of control. 

Brussels is living in slow motion

The state of high alert will continue for a third day tomorrow in Brussels. We will start the new week in slow motion. More importantly, the schools, at every level of education, will be closed. We will have to explain to the very young the reasons.

Many people are criticizing the decision to extend the period of alert. They think it is unwarranted, that it only serves the purpose of showing that the government is finally taking action. And they talk about the negative economic impact of such a decision.

In these matters, my advice is clear: let´s trust the authorities. We have no other choice. And we need to believe they are being responsible. In matters of security, to be responsible means to minimize the risk until you understand more precisely the nature of the threat and are in a better position to respond to it.

Let´s believe that´s what is taking place. 

No fear

Brussels was a special place today. The government decided to increase the security level to high alert, to the maximum degree. And the city went into a lockdown. 

It was a strange, sad day. It could be seen as a victory for those who want to disturb our way of living. 

Fortunately, it happened during the week end. I am sure on Monday we will be back to our daily routines. We cannot succumb to any menaces coming from some crazy young fellows. Our institutions are certainly stronger that those deranged fellows that hide behind radical ideas and criminal plots. 

African Union

I am just back from meetings at the African Union in Addis Ababa. 

And I should add that I was impressed by the clarity of the messages I got from the AU Commissioner for Peace and Security. He and his team have a clear understanding of the challenges at hand. They have also the right approach when it comes to dealing with them.

 The point is that the African response capacity remains weak. It should therefore be strengthened by the external partners to Africa. That strengthening would be in the interest of stability and human rights in Africa, but it would also serve the long term interests of Europe and others outside Africa. 

But for it to work it has to be part of the AU priorities and advocacy efforts. 

In Macau

I have been in Macau for a few days. And the more I know about this Special Administrative Region the more I appreciate its dynamism and charm.

Macau´s total area is certainly small but its business districts are pretty diverse and worth the walk. I also found a number of new “avant-garde” boutiques, including some with very creative pieces of art on display. They tell us that Macau is more than just a good number of extravagantly huge casinos.

Moreover, the University institutions are now very well established. They do attract quite a number of students from Mainland and beyond. 

Populism and its ghosts

I realised I am speaking too often against populist leaders. Every time I am asked about the current European challenges, the word populism pops up in one or more of my sentences. Is it that I am seeing too many ghosts and witches around? Or is there a real reason to be worried, as we regard ahead and try to see how the European Union is going to respond to some of the very salient challenges it faces?

Flying over the Sinai Peninsula

The Sinai plane crash raises a couple of chief questions. It has to be seriously and independently investigated. It would be unacceptable to see any kind of national political considerations masking the truth. There is such a risk, I am afraid.

People should know the causes. The next wave of tourists, of course, and all those flying over the region – it is an important corridor for aircraft going or coming out of the Gulf States – but also the relatives of those who lost their lives on Saturday. 

President Erdogan ´s victory should be an opportunity for moderation

President Erdogan´s party has won today´s general elections in Turkey. As the victory is not a political tsunami, but enough to give him a solid majority in the national Parliament, one could hope for a certain degree of moderation to be restored to Turkish politics.

This is however very unlikely. I am afraid Erdogan will continue to press for a domestic agenda that combines religious conservatism with a strong shade of despotism. But he can count with very serious civil society demonstrations. People in the big cities are not really prepared for additional limitations to their freedoms. In addition, the Kurdish question will not fade away. It is actually calling for a renewed approach to dialogue and reconciliation. Erdogan cannot respond to such a call with weapons, arrests and brute force.

On the external front, Erdogan will have to play a constructive role in Syria. That´s his most important contribution to peace and stability in the region. He will be also under some kind of European pressure to bring under control the human trafficking that is taking place on the Turkish shores of the Mediterranean Sea. To claim he is in charge and at the same time allow free space for traffickers and other criminal elements to take advantage of the human misery is a major contradiction that needs to be exposed.

The leaders within the EU have also to be better at defining a common approach to Ankara. Such an approach cannot be dictated by despair, by the leaders´ incapacity to deal with the refugee flows that have their assembly points in Turkey.

Supporting the Vienna process on Syria

A week ago, I criticised the conveners of the Vienna meeting on Syria for not inviting the UN and EU. Now, after today´s new round of discussions in Vienna, I should commend the US and Russia for bringing to the room not only the UN and the EU, but also the other countries that can have an impact on the solution of the long lasting civil war. It was particularly important to have Iran in the conversation.

This basically means that for the first time, after so many years of destruction and human pain, there is a bit of hope for the Syrians. The road ahead is still very difficult. But at least the diplomacy is now seriously trying to initiate a peace process.

The next step is to find a way of bringing in the Syrian representatives themselves. I am confident that it should be possible, if all those who met in Vienna today do their honest part of the bargain.

It is also critically important to intensify the destruction of the Islamic State leadership and power structures. For that to happen, one has to be very frank and have the courage to denounce any double game that might occur in the future. We cannot accept a country sits in Vienna and talks about the future of a peaceful Syria and, at the same time, keeps somehow supporting the terrorists.

Fighting for democracy in Turkey

It requires a lot of courage to be an active democratic opponent of President Erdogan of Turkey. I certainly admire those who in Parliament, in the media and on the streets, through their participation in rallies for democratic rule, dare to express their views. The risks are high. They call for a lot of bravery. 

Restoring hope

People want to feel safe. At home, on the streets and also in their jobs. Times of uncertainty, as we have today in many parts of the world, including in our more developed societies, make people feel fragile and vulnerable. They open the door, if not properly addressed, to all kinds of extremism.

The political discourse has to pay greater attention to these matters. Leaders need to reassure. And they should think again about the role of the State and its institutions, the value of predictability, stability and compromise, and keep in mind that younger generations require special attention. The future is always build on the conviction of progress for new wave, the newcomers. The future will be sombre if the youth believe they will be worst off, that they are the ones who will pay for the follies and the lack of values of today.

In the current circumstances, to restore hope to the young people is a major challenge the political leaders ignore at the peril of everyone. We cannot accept that type of political blindness. 

Weakening Donald Tusk

By and large, Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, has measured up to his Brussels job. At a time of great challenges, he has been able to respond much better than initially expected. He has shown leadership and prudence. And that is certainly good news for Europe at a time of great political fragility and uncertainty.  

Now, the outcome of his native Poland´s general elections has brought a bigger problem to him. He has lost the support of his government as the new boys and girls in Warsaw are far from being his political buddies.  Without such backing, in his home country, his presidency job in the Council will be based on a much weaker foundation and becomes much more difficult to perform.

That´s bad news for him and also for the EU.  

No good news from the Polish front

Poland has moved to the very conservative side of its political spectrum. The populist and pretty nationalist Law and Justice won today´s elections. They have a comfortable majority. They will make good use of it to promote a traditional approach to politics and to social values.

This is no good news for the repair work that needs to be done in order to strengthen the EU. The Law and Justice leaders are not great supporters of a stronger EU. They will be adding new challenges to those who believe, in Brussels and throughout Europe, that greater harmonization of policies is the way forward.

Celebrating the United Nations and the entire UN System

Time to celebrate the UN and its 70 years of efforts in favour of peace, human rights, development and international cooperation, including in the areas of environment and protection of the world´s heritage.

Time to be positive and commit oneself to a more effective organization, a complex one for that matter but able to perform in the midst of so many national interests and contradictions. 

Syria: calling for a renewed diplomatic effort

John Kerry, the US State Secretary, and Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister met today in Vienna with their counterparts from Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The meeting was about the Syrian conflict and how to get it resolved, after almost five years of civil war and unimaginable suffering.

These four people represent countries that can play an important role in bringing peace back to Syria. Their countries are not the only ones that matter but in many ways they play a major role in the region and can for sure markedly influence the course of events. It is therefore encouraging to see them around the same table. And they should continue the consultations, even if their interests are very distinct, as it is time to see an end to the Syrian tragedy.

I have also noted that the EU was not part of the discussion. It should. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini, has to claim a seat around this table. The EU´s potential role both during the peace negotiations and the reconstruction of Syria cannot be ignored.

The UN has also been side-lined. The Special Envoy of the Secretary-General, Staffan de Mistura, has disappeared from the radar. That needs to be changed immediately. The UN´s participation is critical for the credibility of the Secretary-General and to augment the legitimacy of the current efforts. Here, as in the case of the EU, there is a need to be strong and call for recognition.

The Chinese move to London

The Chinese President´s official visit to the United Kingdom has not received a lot of attention in the European media. This is rather surprising. The visit is significant for a number of reasons that go beyond its obvious impact on the UK´s economy. 

Let´s mention some of them. The visit has substantially strengthened the Chinese political and economic interests in Europe, making the UK the preferred launching pad for further Chinese investments in the EU. It has also shown that Beijing believes the UK will remain within the EU. And it is tying the UK´s foreign policy to the Chinese ambitions.

It is true that both countries gain from the closer relationship. However, with time, this is above all a very strategic move by President Xi Jinping. He comes out of it stronger, abroad and at home. 

The current Portuguese political bet

The leader of the Portuguese Socialist Party, Antonio Costa, lost the general elections on 4 October. After four years of austerity, and conservative arrogance, to lose the elections says a lot about Costa´s political credibility within the general population. But the interesting thing is that Costa has managed, at least for the time-being, to regain the initiative after the elections. I admire that ability.

He has looked to his left and tried to reach an alliance with the far-left, basically a group of urban-based idealists mixed up with modern-day Trotskyists, and also with the Communists. The Communist Party is the last large old-school communist grouping in Western Europe.

It is not yet clear whether Costa will manage to sign an agreement with those two. He believes he will. Basically, he bets on the fact that such triad would be ready to pull together to keep the right wingers out of government.

But a legislative term is a long period of time. Costa knows, I believe, that such an alliance is fragile and will not be able to win the test of time. Sooner or later, and in particular as the economy gets the costly impact of a good set of social measures that are the conditions for the far left to be on board, the agreement might unravel. Costa might think that by that time he will be popular enough to gain the votes he could not get on 4 October. Maybe. Or maybe not.

It is quite a bet and the risks for his party and the country are certainly a matter of concern.

In the circumstances, I can only wish well to the vast majority of the Portuguese.

Again on leadership

Principles, young man, principles! That´s the secret of good leadership. And if you cannot find the right principle to justify your decisions, then be creative and come up with a new one. Just be clear and very firm when stating that new principle. Ambiguity is not accepted. Ambiguity is good in matters of philosophy and poetry but not in matters of leadership. People want to understand your reasons. You have to be clear. Then, you are a leader. 

What do you mean when you say the Left?

After a very long journey, I just have a question: what does it mean to be a political progressive leader today? Said differently, what is it we should call the Left? What defines it? 

Time to focus on Angola´s democratization

Angola does not attract a lot of media attention. It is an important country in its part of the world, because of its size, wealth and military power. But is also a very poor example in terms of democratic rule and even worst, if we look at governance and accountability issues. 

It is a rich country with plenty of poverty. And it is a country that locks up people as soon as they express any type of opposition to the ruling class. 

That´s the case with 15 grassroots individuals that have been in jail for about three months for the simple reason they organised a public demonstration to call for more democracy and human rights. They are now under the very serious charge of treason and threats against the constitutional order –“coup d´état attempt”-, as accused by the government. It is a farce, a travesty of rule of law.

It is time to talk about it. As it is time to call for democratic change in the country.

Late thoughts

In democratic politics, success is about votes. The more you get the more successful you are. There is no other measure as it is very difficult to assess the theoretical merit of ideas and political proposals. Therefore, if you get involved in politics you should aim at getting as much support as possible. There is no other way out.

I might disagree with your approaches to public matters. But you get more votes than I, I have to accept that you are in charge. Being in charge does not mean however that you are right. It means you have been able to bring on board, to your side, a good number of people. And that is the basis of political legitimacy. And it gives you the authority to be in charge. 

Portugal: are we moving to the far left?

The Portuguese voted on 4 October for a new parliament. No party got a majority vote. There is a need for a coalition government to ensure stability. And the movement seems to be in the direction of a left of the left alliance, under the leadership of the Socialist Party. If it happens, it will be the first of its kind since 1975. And it would be a major shift in the national politics of the country. 

Trident Juncture 2015

I am just back from NATO exercise Trident Juncture 2015.

I have been involved in it for the last 18 months or so. It has been a long process, with different phases of the scenario and the “response” of the international community.

The points here are the following: first, the “crisis” takes place far away from Europe, in an imaginary region to the South of our Continent; second, it is a “crisis response exercise” that follows a model requiring the approval of the UN Security Council; third, it is therefore clear that the exercise is not about defending the Alliance, it is not about collective defence, a concept that is well known; it is about helping a fictional country to address an aggression coming from a neighbouring state; fourth, it is not directly related to the current tensions in Europe or in the Middle East; it was planned well before President Putin´s new posture; and fifth, it was about training the commanders in the context of complex civilian environment.

My role was to play the UN Special Representative of the Secretary-general. It was about sharing many years of UN senior experience. And it is rewarding to see the interest it raised. 

Learning from Putin

During the last many days I have been fully taken by a major military exercise. As a civilian and someone who has a very good number of years on the shoulders, the exercise leaves me a bit worn out, by the end of the day. But it is interesting to see how the top officers respond to a complete set of new challenges that in the world of today go far beyond just military means.

The military campaigns have changed and today´s world calls for a different approach to operational design. Plans have to be complex and combine a good number of actions, many of them within the civilian realm.

In many ways, Putin is one of those political leaders that fully understands the new ways of waging “war”. To pay detailed attention to his modus operandi gives us a chance to learn a few techniques that make sense.

The only problem is that we might learn some methods from him but cannot agree on his approach to international relations. 

After hours in Zaragosa

I took a long walk this evening. It was a pleasure to wander in the main avenues of Zaragoza, in Eastern Spain, and see so many locals just strolling around in a relaxed manner, enjoying the weather, the end of the day and the serenity of the place. Zaragoza is a large city but it keeps a strong human dimension and it is pretty affordable. That makes it, like many other cities in Spain, very attractive and relaxing. 

Putin´s game in Syria

Russia´s latest actions in Syria have confirmed my thesis as well as the opinion piece I publish today in the Portuguese weekly magazine Visão. Vladimir Putin´s goal is to keep Bashar al-Assad in charge. He thinks that the Damas man is the best bet in terms of safeguarding the Russian naval and air bases in the country. He also believes that there is no good replacement for Assad at this stage. He fully understands Assad´s limitations but he sees no other actor in a position to do better. Putin is afraid of a greater chaotic situation if his protégé falls. Therefore, he is ready to fight for him. But Putin is also a realist. He knows that sooner or later someone else has to be found. He is certainly looking for such a potential leader…

International law and the fight against terrorism

When discussing terrorism, one should keep in mind a number of issues. One of them is the concept of self-defence. Basically the point is about the lawful use of force by States against an individual or groups of individuals that are recognised as representing, planning or preparing to carry out a serious armed threat. Linked to the concept are the notions of gravity, imminence, and pre-emptive action as well as the measured use of force.

The UN has spent quite a bit of its time looking at these matters. There are two Security Council Resolutions that provide most of the legal basis for the response by States to terrorism. One, UN Security Council Resolution 1368 (2001) was approved in the aftermath of the 9/11 acts. The other – UNSC Resolution 1373 (2004) – authorises States “to take steps to prevent the commission of terrorist acts”.

As the discussion goes on and taking into consideration new developments, such as the drone strikes, it would be appropriate to review these resolutions and maybe adopt a more comprehensive one. The call for legal basis for action should be taken back to the UN Security Council. 

UN General Assembly

It was a busy day at the UN General Assembly. The speeches by key world leaders and the many side meetings have shown that the United Nations remains, notwithstanding all the constraints it faces, the key political forum for dialogue and cooperation. There is no other institution that can match the UN.

More specifically, the emphasis on development matters and on peace operations remains strong. They are important pillars of the UN´s work. But they should not let us forget the key relevance of human rights and women´s empowerment. 

Obama and Xi

Excellent speech by President Obama on the occasion of the Chinese President´s visit to the White House. He said the right things about cyber security, human rights, peace and cooperation in Asia and the economic ties between the two countries.

I am sure that President Xi Jinping, who is an astute and experienced player, will reflect about what Obama has said. And his first take will be about respect. Xi might not have liked what he heard but he will recognise that the current US President is a man of courage. And my experience tells me that a genuine leader appreciates courage in politics. It is actually a rare commodity, as many prefer an opportunistic approach.

Not Obama. 

Russia is moving to Syria

There is a debate going on about Russia´s intentions in Syria. The reinforcement of their airbase in the port city of Latakia goes far beyond force protection and self-defence considerations. It is a big move. It looks like creating a big logistics base for a deeper mission in Syria.

The next few days should allow us to have a better understanding of the Russian plans in that country. They should also give us a hint of Moscow´s plans regarding their presence in the region. 

Crazy Volkswagen leaders

The Volkswagen fraudulent approach to diesel-related emissions is most shocking. How could such a major corporation, one of the largest and most solid in the world, believe that cheating would go unnoticed and would bring them additional market share?

This is another eye-opener in today´s world. A very damaging one for that matter. The credibility of this company and all the related makes – VW, Seat, Porsche, Audi – is seriously affected. They will probably survive the crisis but with significant losses in terms of future sales and prestige. However, the greatest damage will be inflicted in all of us that have gradually lost confidence in traditional politics, then on banking, afterwards on promises of international solidarity, and now on car manufacturers.

This is another very heavy blow on trust and values. It is also a deep stain on Germany´s industrial and business elites.

It is at the same time, however, a reminder that we live in open societies. Openness leads to exposure and that´s the most effective way of dealing with the dishonesty of the powerful people, including those who believe, because they earn scandalous salaries and benefits, that they are well above the common mortals we are. 

The Pope´s approach

Pope Francis is in Cuba. And his visit shows that principles, diplomacy and attitude can immensely contribute to progressive change. It reminds us that today´s levers of power have a lot to do with values and approaches and much less to do with sanctions and military means. Sanctions and guns have some weight, no doubt about that. But their impact remains limited. They have to be part and parcel of a much larger approach. They have their moment. And then there is a time when they are no longer the best way forward.

That´s what is happening today in Cuba.

And we are fortunate that President Obama fully understands the change that is taking place. 

Burkina Faso must return to the democratic path

Burkina Faso is one of the better educated countries in West Africa. And its population is young and dynamic. There is in addition a good sense of national identity and cohesiveness. It is therefore unacceptable to see the Presidential Guard take over the executive power, stop the transition to democratic rule and try to bring back the former President, Blaise Compaoré. The coup d´état, carried out a couple of days ago, must be condemned firmly by all the friends of such an interesting and promising country. It would be a serious disservice to Africa if France and others in the EU would be seen as hesitating in their condemnation of the coup. 

Tell your story

In today´s developed and democratic societies, every political move, every key institution, every public action boils down to perception. More than the facts and the messages the political and social actors put across, what counts in the end is the way they are perceived and understood by the citizen. That´s why today´s wars are not just about fire power. Guns and bullets are still a deterrent, but not good enough. Wars, as well as any political fight, are gained and lost in the narrative that is communicated to people. 

About political action

In politics, style matters. Today´s politics call for people that look serious, modest and concerned with real problems as they are faced by the people. Rhetoric is now about sounding sincere and clear, nothing else. 

The migrations seen from Riga

As it has been the case in the last five years, I am spending a good part of September in Riga. It´s not about tourism, even if Riga is a great place to visit. In the recent years, the conversations would be about the relations with the big neighbour to the East. There are still many strong feelings about the matter. This year is different. The key topic in most of the discussions is related to the immigration of people from outside the EU and the impact of such large movements on the European project. There is fear, here in a country that believes deeply in its relationship with the rest of the EU, fear that the mass arrivals might put too much strain on the Schengen approach and on the free movement of the Europeans themselves. 

The EU chaos

It´s hard to believe the EU is not able to have a common approach to a matter as serious as the mass arrival of refugees and other migrants. More disturbingly though is to observe that some governments have lost control of the situation. It will take ages to regain the lost authority. In the meantime, the impact of this uncontrolled movements needs to be closely monitored and the appropriate mitigation measures must be implemented. As it is also necessary rebuild the confidence between the leaders of the different member states and ensure that there is no populist gain made out of this most incredible disarray. 

UK Labour Party got an interesting Leader

It´s official, Jeremy Corbyn is the new Leader of the UK´s Labour Party. He comes from outside the party´s mainstream. His ideas are much closer to the radical Left than to those Labour has advocated since the late 90s, when Blair came to power. Corbyn´s election calls therefore for a serious reflection about politics in our type of societies.

Many people said they have voted for him because they understand what he is saying. They understand he is not a Conservative under the disguise of Labour. What he talks about is more than just a nuance of Conservative´s positions. That makes him clear and gives him the support of all those who believe the UK has become more unequal and less friendly to the weak. The lesson here is simple: if you want to be seen as an alternative be clear about your positions, make them be seen as clearly distinct from those of your opponents.

He has also attracted the backing of many younger voters. He might be wrong in his prescriptions and policy options but he grounds them on values and generosity. And that´s what the young people want to hear. Values are back in the public opinion and politicians need to take that into account. There is less room today for opportunism and cynicism.

He might never become a prime minister. I do not see the majority of the British voting for him. He might even be bad news for Europe as I do not see him engaging in the Yes campaign at the time of the British referendum on the EU.

But he will make politics in the UK a bit more popular and interesting for a good while. David Cameron can expect a number of good fights in Parliament.

11 September

A day to remember all of those who have been victims of terrorist actions. And to reaffirm that one of the most pressing priorities of today, for every government that believes in democracy and tolerance, is to neutralise the leadership and the key elements of the so-called Islamic State. 

Syria policy review

The refugee influx is re-opening the debate about the EU´s role in Syria and in the region. And my advice is that the reflection should look into every option. But it should, above all, be honest about what´s to be achieved and frank when reviewing the means and ways of achieving such objectives. It cannot be just more dust in the air to gain the impression that we are doing something out there. The challenges are too serious for superficiality and make believe.

Refugees: it´s time to regain the political initiative

In politics it´s a very costly mistake to be perceived as having lost control of a serious situation. This is particularly true in the developed countries. They have the resources, the rules and the institutions to respond to major challenges. Then, when the response seems chaotic and directionless, the loss of credibility is enormous. The institutional approaches are then replaced by the reactions on the streets and the emotions on the small TV screens. And all that ends up by generating major problems that societies will have to confront sooner or later.

Therefore, when control is lost the most urgent action that is required is to regain the initiative. 

Refugees and Migrants: Calling for a comprehensive view

The mass movement into the EU is a very complex matter. It calls for a comprehensive analysis and a multi-faceted response. The humanitarian assistance is one of the dimensions. In terms of urgency, it is certainly the priority. But the issue needs to be viewed from other perspectives as well. And that has to be done with great serenity and a strong sense of responsibility, both towards those coming in and those who belong here.  

A new approach to politics

The positive response many Europeans are giving to the mass influx of would-be refugees might have many ways of being understood. For me, it underlines an emerging widespread aspiration to see human values guiding political decisions. People are telling their leaders that basic principles of humanity matter above everything else when the crisis is too big and the suffering too high.

In many ways politics in our part of the world lost touch with the lives of the poorest and weakest segments of society. We got used to believe that economic growth, combined with a good degree of political expediency and a fair dose of opportunism, would give everyone a chance to make a living. 

In addition, we have accepted globalization on the material fronts but not on matters that might compromise our standards of living. We keep asking every nation to open their borders as we try to keep our own frontiers well protected. And we don´t mind to give some help to those in need as long as that happens far away from our doorsteps.

Now, here in Europe, that way of looking at the world might be about to be challenged. Ideology is getting back into politics. And the ideas that are about to shape our future political views are above all about being more reasonable and more open to others. It´s a new kind of responsive politics.

Call for a new policy approach on Syria

In view of the recent events, it should be clear that the time has arrived for a new policy on Syria.

The humanitarian crisis must be addressed. And the terrorists that call themselves the Islamic State have to be neutralised. These are the two overriding priorities. Both of them require the Western countries and the neighbouring countries in the region to adopt a new approach.

One of the key steps should therefore be to re-engage with Bashar al-Assad. Leaders need to recognise the need for such a move. Assad has been a considerable part of problem, it is true. But he is going nowhere, we reached a standstill. He will stay in charge of part of the country and in command of a share of its ruins. He represents an important albeit small segment of the Syrian population. And he knows that the UN Security Council will never agree on his condemnation.

He should therefore be part of the solution. To continue to consider his removal from power a critical objective is the wrong option.

 We cannot ignore the plight of the displaced and the refugees. As we cannot forget that the IS fanatics are a major threat to the region and to us as well.  All efforts should focus on both issues.

EU: the foundations of the common building are shaking

The current events in the EU are like a major quake. Their impact on the common European project will radically change a number of things. It´s also a long term shock wave.

My advice today is that people who care should start a serious debate about the changes that are in the making. It´s time to think beyond the daily dramas and have a good understanding of the key trends.

We need to hear from minds that can read the future. 

Chinese politics of intimidation

The aim of the huge military parade the government of China will put on display tomorrow in Beijing, as they celebrate the 70^th anniversary of Victory Day against the Japanese, is obviously related to a policy of intimidation. 

But the ones the Chinese authorities try to intimidate are not based in Japan, not even in the neighbouring countries. To the neighbouring countries, Beijing´s message is clear: our military capabilities are growing by the day and modernising by the hour. It´s an arms race and the Chinese want it to be clear that they have the means and the knowledge to win the run.

Regarding the intimidation, the target is the Chinese people itself. Their government wants them to understand that the armed forces are a powerful instrument of power. It was used in 1989, at Tiananmen Square. And can be used again, now in a much more efficient manner. That´s the message. 

Civil obedience remains the key issue in such a vast country. The leaders are today, as their predecessors were, deeply afraid of any possible loss of political control.

End of summer break

I am back from my summer break. Back from 15 days in a village in Southern Portugal. Two weeks spent among elder people as old folks make now most of the residents in rural areas. And a period to learn again the virtues of simplicity, frugality and the ability to make do with whatever is available

The middle of August

In my corner of the world, this is peak holiday time. This week end is a particularly busy one. Traffic, on roads and airports, is just pretty heavy. The outside world is kept outside the people´s minds. More than usually, that´s it. No time to think about the huge discrepancy between our own life styles and those prevalent in many parts of the planet. This a moment for beach and sun. Our thick skin is anxious to get a good tan. That´s the way we see things around here. 

Guinea-Bissau is down the rocks once more

Guinea-Bissau is again on the rocks. Last night the President decided to fire the government. This was an unjustified decision – and dramatically wrong from the constitutional and political perspectives – as this government had shown to be committed to bring the country out of two decades of a deep national crisis. This was actually a well performing government that had been commended by the donor group of countries at a recent meeting in Brussels.

I was in discussion today about the new situation over there. And my opinion was very clear. If you want to understand the President and his mistakes, please get in touch with his marabout. Like many powerful men in West Africa, the President is pretty insignificant in front of his marabout. The holy man dictates the President´s actions. 

The impossible job of leading a peacekeeping operation

The UN Secretary-General has just forced his Special Representative in the Central African Republic (CAR) to resign. The reason is directly linked to the rape of a young girl in Bangui by one or more peacekeepers. The Special Representative, who is also the head of the UN peacekeeping operation in the CAR, had to go, in the opinion of Ban Ki-moon, to show that the SG does not take these matters lightly.

Ban Ki-moon could not afford to display any shade of hesitancy.  There have been, in the past, some serious cases of gender-based violence in the country associated to the external troops. The most notorious case was perpetrated by the initial deployment of French soldiers and the UN was perceived as timid in dealing with it.

This sort of violence has been a recurrent problem in peacekeeping. At present there is no tolerance to it. And that´s the correct approach. But that does not prevent it from occurring.

That was again the case in the CAR. However, now that the Special Representative has been so summarily sacked I should add that he had tried his level best to prevent sexual violence from happening again. It´s fair to say it in a clear manner. It’s true that the ultimate responsibility in a mission comes always to the Special Representative´s level. But it also true that he cannot be behind each one of his soldiers. There are thousands of them in a mission like the one in the CAR. Each military contingent comes from a different country and the responsibility has to start with the national commanding officer at the head of each contingent.

The inspiration

I finally wrote the piece about conspiracy theories. And I should say thanks to President Mugabe. He is such a great source of inspiration when it comes to political plots, ambiguity and obscure intents. And the way he narrates his interpretations of reality is so entertaining. Unless you are one of his targets and also within reach…

Silly season

I have been asked to write about conspiracy theories. My reaction was pretty spontaneous. I looked at my editor with big eyes. Then I thought about the timing: the piece will be out next week, right by the middle of August…

It is therefore absolutely evident we are at the peak of the “silly season”…