To say thank you to Ban Ki-moon

Ban Ki-moon has left the UN Secretariat building today, at the end of his second mandate.

He spent the last ten years at the UN helm. I worked directly under him during a few years and can´t let him go without saying that he has always tried to do his best as Secretary-General.

People have criticised his low profile style, his communication skills, and his indecision in some critical moments, and so on. But they have forgotten he comes from a very different cultural and civilizational background, one that is more inclined to pursue dialogue and harmony instead of our Western way that puts a premium on personal confrontation. And many have also been blind to his tremendous efforts on climate change, on improving the work of the Security Council, on gender, the protection of civilians, and on enhancing the coordination with the regional organisations, such as the African Union, the EU and NATO. He has managed to keep the bridges open with the key members of the UN Security Council and that´s in itself a major achievement.

We should be mindful to the fact that the UN is an extremely complex organisation. It is the meeting point of all the national interests as the member States perceive them. The Secretary-General is caught in that dense web of narrow interests. He has immense authority, it is true, but it is also seen by the States as their top international civil servant. That´s not a very easy position.

I think it is fair to say goodbye to Ban Ki-moon on a positive note.

Syria´s broken deals

The rumours about the Syria´s talks sponsored by Russia are in the air. Turkey and Iran would also be god fathering the process.

One of questions – and there are many difficult ones – concerns the price Russia will have to pay to get Turkey on its side, in particular when it comes to accepting Assad´s continuation as head of State for a few more years.

My impression is that such price is related to the future of the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG. To get Erdogan on its side, Putin might have agreed to start attacking the YPG forces one off these days. The pretext would be that the Kurds are not part of the peace deal and should therefore be considered as terrorists. That Russian move would respond to a major strategic goal for the Turks: to prevent the Kurds from establishing any stronghold in Syria.

But all this is heavy on wishful thinking. The complexity of the situation on the ground is such that a deal like the one being prepared by this trio is far from being done. Particularly because it is not an inclusive one as it excludes not only the Kurds but others. And also because Assad is now convinced he can achieve a military solution. 

Holidays and the change that is coming

Christmas 2016 is about to happen. It is therefore time to close this shop for a few days and enjoy the family.

But before closing for the holidays, I spent a bit of time thinking about the role of the elites as we get closer to the New Year and all the changes it will bring, in the US, in the UN, and also in some parts of the EU, in particular those more affected by the Brexit discussions, the nationalism extreme and the related immigration issues, security challenges, and by complex electoral processes. Elites will have to be very clear in their communication endeavours, very sensitive to the difficulties and anxiety many people face, and also very responsible when talking about the way forward. The interaction between the elites and the ordinary citizen will be a major issue as we get back from the holidays and start confronting the world of 2017.

The New Year this time will bring a real change.

In the meantime, let´s enjoy the break. Happy holidays, then.

On domestic security matters

The concept of “war against terrorism” is not appropriate for our European societies. We are not at war. We have a very serious challenge in terms of domestic security. But it is a security issue to be dealt with by the police and the internal intelligence services. War would mean a major disruption of normalcy. We want to keep the same routines and be convinced that the security services are indeed equipped to match the challenge. They might of course be supported by the armed forces. But that support has to be much smarter than just placing a few soldiers in shopping malls and other public spaces. The politicians need to understand that the military can do much better things than just standing out there.

Responding to terrorism with wisdom

Yesterday´s horrendous attack in Berlin cannot be used by the extreme right to further their hate campaign. We should not allow it to happen.

The people responsible for the violence are terrorists and they should be dealt as such. We cannot fall into stereotypes and start looking at every refugee as a potential threat. Refugees are just fellows like you and me. The main difference is that they had to run for their lives. They are not in the business of taking other people´s lives. The criminal that comes to us and tries to do us harm is just that, a criminal. He might represent a new type of danger. But that´s the world of today, the upshot of some very serious crises in different parts of the world.

This seems to be understood by the vast majority of the German people. They are deeply sad and disturbed but they remain calm and have demonstrated they do not fall in the trap the extremists are so good at laying. We should share their pain but also their wisdom. 

Russia and Turkey: a relationship beyond death

The assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey should be condemned with very strong words. It is clearly an act that can have no justification. And it will not contribute a single inch to the solution of the tragic situation the Syrian population is going through.

It would also be a mistake to think that this vile act will have a major impact on the relations between Russia and Turkey. This is no time for exaggerations. And both countries seem to have find a common interest: to sort out the destiny of Syria without involving other major international players into the game.

I am afraid however that this sad incident of today might give the Turkish authorities an additional excuse to intensify the ongoing climate of repression. The Police could be the main target. But it will also spill over into other sectors of the nation. And it will be a harsh response. One reason could be to show to the Russians that the Turkish government is not taking this murder lightly. The other one would certainly be related to the continuing plan to silence any opposition to Erdogan´s authoritarian rule.

Against populist ideas

It would be inexcusable to remain silent and not denouncing the populist proposals that might create serious political damage. Indeed, I see it as my duty to combat that kind of propaganda. And I also believe that such struggle has to be based on clear arguments and on very strong words. Ambiguity means nothing when fighting populism. It gives room for accusations of duplicity and weakness of character.  To be polite is no solution either. Populism must be ridiculed. It also needs to be destabilised. 

We should feel deeply challenged

Syria has become the most visible and most dramatic example of the UN Security Council´s failures. It patently shows that the Council´s arrangement is about the Permanent Members ‘interests, and not about international peace and security. And it is also a most shocking reminder that it is time to find a better arrangement to protect civilians and civilisation. To accept without profound indignation what is going on in Aleppo and elsewhere should be out of question.

However, it is not just about Syria or its vicinity. It is also the suffering in South Sudan, Myanmar and some other parts of the world. And the extreme poverty many face on a daily basis. All that is just a reminder of the incapacity of the Council to properly address the major crises and challenges that put so many lives at stake.

It is also a call to think differently about the future and a new international order.  

On cyber as a weapon

Cyber attacks, when organised by an adversary State, must be taken very seriously and considered as a new type of armed aggression. Particularly when matters on national sovereignty and critical institutions are the target. To be soft on that will open the door for more daring and more damaging hostility. Better be clear and firm. The challenging State must be undoubtedly made aware of the consequences such attacks might bring on its own national interests and on its leadership. 

Guterres as the new UN boss

António Guterres´s swearing-in ceremony took place today. He is now ready to take over from Ban Ki-moon on 1 January 2017. And he has clearly spelled out, in today´s speech, the key priorities he sees for his mandate: first, to augment the UN´s ability to better contribute to the different stages of crisis management; second, to reorganise the system´s development machinery to make it more coherent and have a stronger field presence; third, to reform the UN, with a clear stress on delivery and improved public communication.

He is aware of the many difficulties ahead. For that reason, he underlined the importance he gives to partnering with other institutions and the member states. It is clear the UN should never work on critical issues alone.

Furthermore, all the work should be inspired by the principles that are enshrined in the UN Charter. A values-based approach gives the UN a stronger sense of mission and enhances its credibility.

One of those key values concerns the basic rights of everyone. They should be respected. That´s the foundation of peace and international cooperation.

Some people would call it respecting the dignity of our fellow humans. I think that concept could be understood differently by different people. I prefer to say human rights. They require no interpretation and have no faith-based connotation. It´s just a question of implementing the existing, universally approved principles. They are clearly written in the UN Convention.

Jammeh must go

Following Yahya Jammeh´s tragic volte-face, who has now changed his views on last week´s presidential elections and declared he will not accept the results, the UN Security Council met today to discuss the explosive situation The Gambia is now confronted with. The meeting was called at the request of Senegal, a country that surrounds The Gambia and has a very similar ethnic mix.

The Council has decided that Jammeh has no other option but to acknowledge the legitimacy of the election and move aside, for the winner to be sworn in with no undue delay.

This is not going to be easy to implement. Jammeh does not seem prepared to be reasonable. He is afraid of retribution and legal accusations, if he moves out of the State House.

In the circumstances, he should be offered political asylum elsewhere outside The Gambia. That should be the line of negotiations. It would facilitate the transition to democracy.

Where could he find asylum? That´s for the leaders of the region to decide and negotiate with the receiving state and Jammeh. But there are some countries that could be approached. For instance, Morocco and Saudi Arabia. 

Different worlds

To travel out of the Geneva airport to another rich destination in Europe, as I did last night, could make you believe that everything is well in our part of the world. The planes are full, including in business class, the passengers look like people with nice jobs, there is youth, modernity, wealth and knowledge in the air. And if you keep flying this type of routes you can easily end up by seeing society and the planet from a perspective that is decades away from the one that inspires the young Africans that travelled today over the border fence in Ceuta, in a vain attempt, for the majority of them, to get to a better life in the EU. 

The importance of the Electoral Commissions

Still on Gambia´s presidential elections, I owe a word of great recognition to the chairman of country´s Independent Electoral Commission, Mr. Alieu Momar Njie. I have seen many elections from a very close range. And I know that the chairmanship of the electoral commissions makes the difference. Just before the declaration of the results, Njie was for a while under very serious stress and hard pressure. But he demonstrated to be a strong and honest chairman. Unfortunately, that is not always the case, in similar situations. Therefore, it is tremendously important to mention his example.  

Democracy in action: The Gambia

I spent about five years in The Gambia, from 1989 to 1994. I had an excellent relationship with the national authorities in Banjul and also with a good number of traditional leaders, in many rural areas. The country was moving up, mainly because of tourism and trade with neighbouring Senegal and other countries in the vicinity. The young people had a good knowledge of English in addition to the national and regional languages.

I left the country one month before the military takeover. The coup came as a surprise. The national army was small and very young. It had been in contact with the Nigerian military during their joint UN peacekeeping assignments in Liberia. And they got some bad ideas.

The leader of the coup, Yahya Jammeh, became Head of State. With the passing of the years, he changed into the category of crazy dictator, like some we have seen in Africa and other parts of the world. His views turned into bizarre beliefs and his actions into violent oppression.

But in the soul of many Gambians, there had been planted a seed of freedom and democracy. And they also had the example of Senegal, next door, a twin nation and a much bigger brother. Senegal might have known many difficulties during the last twenty-five years or so, but the people kept a fighting spirit. The Gambians too.

And now they have voted Yahya Jammeh out of the presidency. They have opened a new phase in their future. There is hope again, after more than two decades of despair. I see this as an example that must be talked about.

As we should also talk about Jammeh, who understood the sense of the vote and has accepted his defeat. That´s remarkable for a man that was convinced he was in power for life.

Life is indeed full of surprises. In the case of The Gambia, this has been a magnificent one.

A clown´s death

Today´s words should not go beyond Aleppo, Syria. The civilian population in some areas of the city is being targeted and indiscriminately killed. The atrocities have reached a new level of savagery these last few days. Some of the most emblematic civilians died during this last series of bombardments. Including the 24-year-old Anas al-Basha, a young man who has kept many besieged children happy as he played the clown in between the falling bombs. Yesterday, one of those missiles fell on him. It came from the Assad men. So other people say it was a Russian plane´s job. The fact of the matter is that his death and that of many children, men and women should not be allowed to go silent any longer. 

Renzi´s fall and our worries

Italy has known 63 governments since 1945. That´s a lot of instability during a long period of 70 years. And most likely, the current government, led by Matteo Renzi, will fall after this coming Sunday´s referendum. It´s certainly no good news. Particularly at a time when the Italian banking system and the economy require the support of a strong and stable Cabinet.

In Brussels and in the financial centres of Europe most people believe that there will be no negative impact if Renzi falls and becomes just a caretaker Prime Minister. They have basically in mind the European politics and the markets.

But I think they are a bit short-sighted.

First, there will a very serious impact on the internal politics of Italy. That will give an additional chance to the 5-Star Movement and others, including the racist Lega Nord, to gain additional votes and mess up the domestic politics. Second, the banking system is in a far worst situation than we are prepared to accept. Cabinet needs to have full power to be able to adopt the measures that are required to address the banking crisis. Thirdly, the EU would certainly benefit from a stronger leader in Rome. Renzi has not been able to play an active role in European affairs. If he loses, but stays on, as interim leader, his intervention will be even lighter. If he goes, the new leader will be too busy trying to ground himself in the national politics to have time for Brussels.

For these reasons, one should be worried. 

A plan on migration and refugee matters

The European citizens have little trust left in the ability of the EU institutions and national governments when it comes to managing the migratory flows. Many think the matter is out of control and the politicians are just improvising and pretending. Consequently, that generates criticism, fear and additional support to radical views.

The political leaders must focus on convincing the public opinion that they have a proper plan to effectively respond to the mass arrivals of migrants and refugees. I would also underline that it is not just a question of defining the appropriate policy approach. The circumstances have reached a point and a time when people want to see determined action and understand that the measures that are being implemented are part of a coherent plan. 

French elections

The French Presidential election in May 2017 will be a defining moment for the future of the EU. It would be a major blow for those who believe in harmony in Europe to have the right-wing extremist Marine Le Pen, a xenophobic monster, to win that election. To defeat her is the chief task ahead for many of us in the EU, not just in France.

In some ways, the result of today´s race among the centre-right seven candidates is a step in the right direction. François Fillon, the front runner, is not a bad choice. He is certainly a much better option than the former President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has now been eliminated from the competition. He has much less baggage and he can attract a significantly larger number of voters. He is also a relatively fresh face in the French politics. That matters. Change is now a powerful political argument.

We have now to wait until next Sunday to see if Fillon is confirmed as the centre-right candidate for the presidency. We have also to see what the centre-left is going to decide. At present, it is unclear who will be running for the Socialist Party.

EU´s debate on security and defence

The on-going debate about the future of EU security and defence is excessively focused on the military dimensions. It is also incomplete in terms of understanding the meaning of European security and the complementarity links – and the differences as well – between both concepts. Furthermore, many of the responses that are put forward do not match the new nature of the risks and threats our Europe is confronted with. The understanding of the intents that move our adversaries and enemies is good. But the proposed set of actions are too conventional and too narrow. On the opposite side, we see the enemies playing complex hybrid packages against us. Actually, their main lines of intervention go far beyond the hard military means. They also go far beyond the traditional diplomatic adversarial politics. They are multidimensional, subtle and very often take advantage of our own internal divisions. We should not limit ourselves to military options. That would be in deep contradiction with what we have been talking about during the last six or so years in terms of a comprehensive approach to crisis management.

But there are other points that are also missing. First, the strengthening of national police services. Second, the call for greater cooperation between member States in matters of police investigation, information sharing and joint detailed analysis and interpretation of the data collected. Third, the augmenting of national intelligence resources, which are extremely limited in some of our States, including in those that have recently experienced terrorist incidents. Fourth, the sharing of information between the military and the police intelligence services.

The EU Army: No, thank you!

The talk about building a “EU army” is not wise. It is another example of the high propensity some Europeans leaders have when it comes to shooting themselves on the foot.

The EU defense is very much linked to the strengthening of NATO and also to a clear political will to put some key assets and some highly specialised military people together in a common pool.

To invest resources on a separate EU force is too divert and spread out resources that are already very scarce. It will result in a weaker NATO and in an extremely ineffective EU military establishment. We should oppose that. 

On fighting demagoguery

When the demagogues are at the gate, we should not hesitate. It´s time to be clear about their intent, their lies, and their attempts to take control of our lives, to usurp political power. We have to fight back.

To remain silent, when confronted with political monsters, leads to tyranny and disaster. And we should not see them just as laughing matter. There is nothing fun about firebrands and manipulators.

The best way to combat them is to make use of their own arguments and turn them upside down. To show their dangerous, ridiculous, and false facets.

It is also important to address the concerns of those who give space and credibility to the demagogues. They cannot be ignored. They should not be demeaned. They have to be won to the side of reason and moderation. We must walk to them. 

Trump and the EU´s position

At this early stage, the leaders of the EU institutions, especially the President of the European Commission and the head of the European External Action Service (EEAS), should be very prudent and diplomatic when referring to Donald Trump´s election win.

They for sure have their own personal opinions about the incoming President. That´s fine. They also have some serious apprehensions about the future of the US relations with the EU. That´s fine as well.

But at this time of the game, it pays to be extremely formal, diplomatic and patient. Diplomacy helps to smooth things out, as it often does between countries that share interests. And patience is fundamental to keep a strong negotiating position.

Killing grounds

Hillary Clinton lost the election. She was by far the best candidate. The televised debates have shown that with great clarity. But that is no longer enough to carry the voters with you. To win, in today´s connected world, you have to show no mercy and spend day and night, and every other opportunity, attacking the image of your key opponent. Regarding your adversary, the more destructive you are, the greater the chances of winning the contest. After the victory, you can smile and say some nice things. The power is already in your lap.

The image issue

The EU Commission should demonstrate they are in charge, in those matters they have authority to take decisions. And it should also be able to show a couple of positive actions. Both are urgent. The image remains the main battle field and it is deteriorating. That calls for a major change.

In support of democracy in Turkey

I have a lot of admiration for the Turkish people that dare to come to the public squares and streets to demonstrate for human rights and democracy. Besides this appreciation, there isn´t much we can do, here in Europe, to support their risky struggle. To recognise their courage is just a small gesture. It is however important. It is a way of saying that the current actions by the Turkish government do not respect the accepted democratic standards. And to that, we can add, with great concern, a very clear statement: if the authorities continue the current policy of mass repression that will generate, sooner or later, a major civil crisis. Too bad, as it will happen in a region that is already experiencing major disruptions and unacceptable levels of violence.

Oettinger has lost his authority

Last week, the EU Commissioner Guenther Oettinger made some racist and noticeably stupid remarks during a public formal address to German business people. This was not his first encounter with arrogant foolishness. But this time he had targeted an official Chinese delegation, the gay community as well as the political leadership of Wallonia, in Belgium. That makes too many important targets.

As his remarks became known, through the social media, the man himself became a major embarrassment to the EU Commission. Jean-Claude Juncker felt compelled to advise his Commissioner that an apology was needed. Oettinger finally came out with a statement that he sees as a regret.

That´s not enough. These are trying times for the EU institutions. We expect the people in charge of the institutions to respond to the highest standards required for public office. Oettinger should be told to go. Discreetly but firmly. That´s the only way to deal with the jokers. The only way to properly lead the EU and re-establish its authority. 

Back to the classics

"Silence is one of the great arts of conversation."

Marcus Tullius Cicero

On Turkey and Iraq

At the same time the offensive against the Islamic State terrorists moves on towards Mosul city, we have seen a very serious Turkish military build-up on the border areas with Iraq. Apparently the leadership in Ankara has decided to launch a major armed operation inside Iraq, as a means of stopping the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

This Kurdish group is seen as major threat by the Turkish government.

But one should be aware that any major military incursion into Iraq would further complicate a very delicate and dangerous situation. The Turkish authorities have the right to defend their borders. There is no ambiguity about that. However, they should refrain from getting deeply involved in the internal affairs of Iraq. That would add fire to the region. 

Juncker´s stress

As I watch and watch again yesterday´s joint EU-Canada press conference, here in Brussels, and feel sorry for Jean-Claude Juncker´s tirade against Wallonia and the whole of Belgium, I think of leadership. One of the key dimensions of leadership is the ability to handle pressure. This means one is able to remain serene even when the stress is intense. It also means that one should not pick a fight when there is no need to pick a fight. 

EU, Canada, Brexit and Trade Negotiations

The trade agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada, signed today in Brussels, took seven years to negotiate. This is a long time. However, we should note that there was good will on both sides and not too many marked differences in terms of the underlining economic philosophies. But trade agreements touch many details, they are complicated, slow processes. This is especially true for the EU because the European Commission has to keep all the member states on board as the discussions progress. That’s far from being easy and it is actually becoming even more difficult as we look ahead and take into consideration the current state of the Union.

In the circumstances, and following the Brexit decision, it seems rather improbable to reach an agreement with the UK within a two-year time frame, as required by the EU treaty. We might find ourselves confronted with never-ending ping-pong. Unless both sides are reasonable in their demands and state very clearly what they want to achieve as part of a mutually beneficial compromise. The discussions call for a wise, constructive approach. But the politicians, of either side, are rarely up to that task. They see it as a fight and then everyone loses. 

Rajoy, a temporary victory

Mariano Rajoy has just been confirmed by Spain´s Parliament as Prime Minister. He won the vote because the Socialist Party (PSOE) decided to abstain. After ten months of political uncertainties and drama, the country has now a full-fledged government.

But Rajoy, who has been Prime Minister since 2011 – in Spain the job is called President of the Government, to indicate the authority that is attached to it – starts his new mandate from a very weak power base. His party does not control enough votes in the Cortes (Parliament). This means he will have to look for compromise at the critical moments of his governance. Not easy, as Spain´s political scene is very fragmented. Moreover, there are many personal antipathies among the key party leaders. And Rajoy himself is not really a man that knows about bridge-building. He is too arrogant to be able to act as a good negotiator.

Rajoy´s term might be short-lived. Spain could have new general elections in a year or two. Fortunately, the economy is doing well and steadily recovering from the deep crisis it suffered a few years ago.

The state of politics

I just spent two full weeks in the Southwest of the US and also in Florida. I met a good number of local fellows and most of them did impress me. They are part of those who make America great, on a daily basis and anonymous manner.

I was in Fort Lauderdale the day of the last debate between Hillary Clinton and her republican opponent. As I watched their duel, I kept wondering about today´s politics in a democratic context. To be more precise, I couldn´t stop my continuous bewilderment as I was confronted – through the TV screen, of course – with the extreme and primary mediocrity of the Republican candidate.

I have friends that are Republican supporters. I respect their options. But in the case I was gazing at there was nothing I could find that would allow me to anchor a bit of respect. 

Out of my routine

My daily routines will be completely messed up  during the next two weeks. There will no real writing to be expected on this site... 

May´s rhetoric

The rhetoric the new UK Prime Minister is practising deserves attention. It signals a policy change, not just a different style of oratory. It aims at projecting a tough, hard-nosed nationalistic approach combined with populist overtones. 

But I am not fully sure it works. 

First, it is becoming repetitive, which shows a bit of an imagination deficit. It´s not too far from the broken disk sloganeering. Then, second, it´s not direct enough. It might not be fully understood by the working class fellow. It has an intellectual pretentiousness that contradicts the ambition of being close to the people. Thirdly, it sends a message of arrogance that is irritating some of the key European leaders.

Reforming Peacekeeping

There are several areas of the UN´s work that call for reform. Today, I would mention the Protection of Civilians in relation with the mandates of peacekeeping operations. The reason I raise this issue derives from the report the Center for Civilians in Conflict, a Washington based NGO, just published on the recent dramatic events in South Sudan. Basically, the report states that the UN Blue Helmets did not move out of their barracks and therefore neglected to protect the humanitarian workers. Several of these workers became then victims of extreme violence at the hands of the national soldiers, governmental and rebels alike.

These facts are accurate. The truth of the matter is however much more complex. The UN troops had no means to confront the heavily armed South Sudanese fighters. The UN weapons disadvantage was a crying one. And the fighters were simply determined to shoot and kill the UN Blue Helmets, in case the latter would become too visible on the streets.

These raises a very good number of fundamental questions about deploying a UN peacekeeping force where there is no peace to keep. Should the UN be there? Was the Security Council right when approving the mandate for the South Sudan mission? Should we envisage an international fighting force first, for an initial intervention? How should we put together such a combat mission?

There are indeed many questions just on this issue. And this just one of the many issues that call for serious rethinking.

Antonio Guterres

Antonio Guterres will be the next Secretary-General of the UN. He stood head and shoulders above all the other candidates. His qualities were so obvious that he could overcome the geopolitical pressure to have someone from Eastern Europe and also the advocacy campaign to have a woman as the new head of the UN. He has also been able to unify, at least on this matter, a much divided Security Council.

This is a difficult job. And the current international environment makes it even more complex. As I congratulate Guterres, I also trust he will have the wisdom the moment requires. 

The US and Russia today

We reached today a new peak of tension between the US and Russia. It is directly related to the Syrian crisis and the fact that each country is clearly supporting one side of the conflict. A conflict that is too complex to be sorted out by political means alone.

But that´s only the immediate cause. The deeper reason is rooted on political competition between the US and Russia. It´s not about ideological differences between them, as it was the case during the Cold War. It is far more serious. It´s related to perceived vital national interests. Each country sees the other as very dangerous competition. And this is a new development, a new dramatic feature in the international scene.

I see it as particularly threatening to peace. I believe it is urgent to talk loud and clear about it and try to change this very hazardous views of power politics.

A sharper EU foreign policy

I am for a much firmer approach to EU foreign policy. And also for a much more focused approach.

European leaders must be clear. Among themselves and with the outside world. That´s what the citizens – today better informed than ever – expect. They do not want to be taken for fools. They do not take contempt easily.  

To be clear means we call a spade a spade or we just remain silent and move way from what we cannot change or should not try. An example is the EU presence in the Middle East Quartet. This is never-ending swamp. We should make it known we do not believe it can achieve any meaningful progress in the medium term. And call our participation off.

The leaders are also required to be more strategic. That means they should put the resources where it matters. We can´t be everywhere. We shouldn´t be everywhere. We might have a global presence but that does imply a global reach. We have interests to fight for and they should be the priority. Also, we have some international moral commitments. We should also respond to them. In a very unambiguous way.

The current EU foreign policy is too fluffy. It needs a sharper approach. 

On climate change and the EU

I spent part of the week driving across Spain and France. And I could see the impact of an exceptionally hot summer period. It was particularly shocking in the Vallée de la Loire: many of the farms showed the effect of a very long and warm dry spell. They are usually green at this time of the year. That was not the case as I could see. And I thought about climate change and the critical importance of getting last year´s Paris Treaty ratified by a good number of countries without further delay.

As such, the news coming today from the EU ministers of environment is good. The European countries decided to move ahead with the ratification process. We should salute the decision. And take advantage of it to say that the EU is still very capable of doing the right things. Together. 

UN is deeply divided

Syria has deeply fractured the UN Security Council. Today´s accusations of war crimes thrown at Russia are a very serious development. They will not be forgotten easily. The divisions will continue for a long time. That will have an impact on the work of the Council, including the selection of the new Secretary-General. It will be more difficult to reach an agreement, maybe for a very unreasonable motive: just for the sake of opposing the other side.

A divided Council is not good for the image of the UN. The organisation will be a key casualty. But more importantly, there will be no diplomatic solution to the crisis in Syria. 

EU and roaming

Jean-Claude Juncker understands that any EU decision on roaming is politically important. Particularly at a time when he needs to please the European citizens and make them believe the EU has a meaning. That´s why he decided to cancel the previous one, which was too restrictive – only 90 days in the year and with a lot of conditionalities. That decision was seen by many in Europe as being too kind to the telecom companies. These big corporations do actively lobby in Brussels.

Now, Juncker´s Commission has announced that roaming calls will cost the same as calls made in the home country, as of 15 June 2017. There will be some rules, to avoid fraud, but the new decision is very reasonable.

The truth of the matter is that the telecom corporations are under serious pressure from the social networks. You travel and as long as you get a free Wi-Fi connection you can call through one of several applications without any cost. That´s the way things are going. That´s the future: a world connected at no direct cost. That´s also why some people think that it is not a good idea to buy telecom stocks. These companies´ share prices will keep going down.

In the case of the EU, I hope their public value will start going up a bit. 

Human rights are also for China

As I read that a well-known Chinese lawyer has been sentenced to 12 years – yes, 12 years – in jail because of some spurious accusation about fraud, I recalled my words of last week to my students. Basically, I emphasised then, in my seminar on peace and security, that human rights should always be a top priority in any political dialogue. I even said that in many cases they should be the entry point for a meaningful discussion.

Some people in the audience challenged my approach. Their argument was that it is sometimes very difficult to raise the issue when facing some tough governments. And they mentioned the Chinese, among others.

Well, not really. The leaders in Beijing might not like it. But the country has signed the Universal Convention on Human Rights. They might not fully respect it today. But that should not prevent us from calling their attention to the Convention and its principles, and also from expressing our dismay for its blatant, and repeated, violations. 

The leaders are in New York

As the world leaders walk the corridors of the UN these days, on the occasion of the General Assembly meeting, we should remind all of them that leadership must be synonymous of service and personal sacrifice. It should also be about promoting and implementing the key conventions and agreements that have been agreed upon in past UN meetings.

The fact of the matter is that most of them think that leadership is expressed by saying a few empty things at the podium of the UN in September. And then, they go back home, with the vain feeling that they have contribute to the shaping of international politics. 

Mali: a matter of serious concern

After a discussion this morning with a Malian friend, who is a former senior UN official, what I retained can be easily summarised in a few words: a failed political process and damaging high level corruption.

Basically, this means that unless the domestic leaders and the international community representatives address these two fundamental issues there will be no peace, stability and economic revival in the foreseeable future. And the country will remain dangerously insecure, dramatically poor and a major source of illegal immigration.

I do not think we can expect much of the current national leadership if we do not discuss the situation frankly with them. This is no time for us, the outside friends of Mali, to be ambiguous. We are required to be frank, courageous but also practice good diplomatic judgement.

Who should take the lead in the policy dialogue, as far as the international community is concerned?

A non-event in Bratislava

For me, the most striking facet of yesterday´s EU summit in Bratislava is clear: it was non-event in terms of the European public opinion. The EU citizens took no notice of it. And that should be a good reason to be worried. At a time of mediocrity and obscurity, when everyone is looking for answers and strategies that could make sense, the heads of State and govern were once more unable to go beyond banalities and piecemeal promises. And, as usual, they announced that it will at the next big summit, this time in March 2017 in Rome, that everything will become clear. 

UN deals

I was trying to explain to a friend that when it comes to the selection of the new Secretary-General of the UN, it is ultimately the agreement reached by the Permanent 5 within the Security Council that matters.

It is true that this year the process has been more visible and that the candidates had a chance to speak out and make their views known. But this is not a regular election. It is not about the one that manages to get more votes. Moreover, it is not about professional and political competency. It is about geopolitical interests, as they are perceived by the “big five”.

And the negotiations among them are about to start. The General Assembly – its annual meeting started today – provides a good opportunity for a series of side meetings, where the key leaders do some trading. It will be hard bargaining. And not just about positions those five countries will take once the new boss is in place. This year the trade-offs could be about sanctions, Syria, the new management positions in the World Bank, trade agreements, Ukraine, and so on. There is enough on the international crisis plate for tough deals to be sought.  

September 11

In a wider sense, this is the day to remember all those that have been victims of terrorism during the last 15 years or so. And the best way to honour them would be to speak clearly against all the states and associations that somehow support, foment or create the sectarian conditions that lead to radical views and violent actions.

We have to be much clearer about these matters. Actually, we should not be silent about the destructive policies that some countries conduct and that have a direct impact on radicalisation. The fight against terrorism should start that way. Name and shaming is powerful political tool.

Guterres has become stronger

At the end of today´s round in the UN Security Council, António Guterres came out on top as it had occurred during the past three votes. He is now by far the strongest candidate for the job of UN Secretary-General. Out of the 15 countries in the Council, we see that 12 member states do encourage him to remain on the race. Only 2 countries discourage him. One of these is certainly New Zealand, as they have their one candidate on the race. It is impossible to guess which other country is discouraging him. At this stage, the key votes are very tactical and they can easily change as the diplomatic relations move forward,

Actually, a lot of diplomatic moves can be expected in the next two weeks. From all of the candidates, with the exception of last two in today´s poll -- Christiana Figueres and Natalia Gherman. They seem to be out of this race. And the horse trading has already started with Susana Malcorra. She has just promised the British she will be accommodating their views regarding the Malvinas/Falkland Islands. She announced that commercial flights will be reestablished between Argentina, her country, and the Islands. And that her government is ready to join the British in the offshore oil exploration in the area.

All that is fair game. But there is no doubt that for her and for the other candidates to compete against Guterres is an uphill struggle. 

Tourism in Central Asia

I have been in Kyrgyzstan for little bit more than a couple of days. I still need to get out of the capital and see a bit of the country side. It will be done later in the week. But for now, I am getting the impression that the tourism potential is enormous. The country and the region have very specific cultural traits. They could attract visitors from the EU. And, as an example of its originality, Kyrgyzstan just organised the International Nomad Games. For those who attended it was a magnificent experience. However, the event is not known in the European countries. No paper writes about it.

Tourism could also be a major employment generation activity for the youth. The country is not creating enough jobs and that´s a reason for discontent among the young people. It is actually one of the major issues. 

The G20 summit is appreciated

I am one of those who is convinced that meetings such as the G20 are important. It takes us nowhere to have a cynical view about these types of summits.

This year´s edition is about to begin in China. The leaders might have serious differences of opinion on key issues. There might be accrued tension between China and the West. And some opportunistic views against globalisation. But is wise to give the leaders a chance to meet on a regular basis. These platforms put pressure on them to reach compromises. And to take action together. All that contributes to a less tense international scene.

On the eve of tomorrow´s meeting, China and the US have decided to ratify the Paris agreement on Climate Change. That agreement is critical for our future. And we can only commend President Xi and President Obama for the move. They have sent a very strong signal and tremendously contribute to enhance the G20´s image.

The signal should now be picked by the Europeans. They must move very fast with their own ratification. There is no real reason for further delays. That will be good for the environment as well for their popularity at home.

Travelling

On travel to faraway lands, as of today and for a good week. Well, the point is to keep the eyes wide-open and learn as much as possible. Withdrawal and fighting globalisation are now top on many politicians´agendas.

These issues bring votes. But do not open a better future. And do not bring peace and tranquility. The problems have no borders, as the international mass, uncontrolled migrations and the Zika epidemic show. We might talk about building walls but there is always a way around them.

Better face the issues up-front.  

The EC, Ireland and Apple: time to be reasonable

The European Commission´s decision regarding Apple is the new subject in the priority list of EU concerns. Two days ago, after a two-year probe, Brussels announced that the tax favours Ireland had offered Apple during many years had been judged illegal. It ordered the US multinational to pay tax arrears – just €13 billion plus interest, which adds another €1.4 billion to the bill.

Now, the government of Ireland says they do not approve of the EC ruling. They don’t want the money and consequently they have decided to seize the European Court of Justice for it to annul the decision taken by Brussels.

This matter raises a number of issues.

On the political front, there are several: it complicates the economic and trade relations with the US, taking into account that the US Administration itself has in the recent past imposed very heavy fines on EU companies; it questions the role of the EC on matters of national taxes, particularly when the country in question is at the periphery of the European economic space, has very limited resources and needs to attract investment to generate jobs; and there is the impact of all this on public opinion, at a time when the European citizens are drowning in deep tax waters, being taxed beyond the reasonable and seeing, at the same time, that the big corporations can do smart tax planning and pay amounts as low as 0,005% on gains, as Apple did in Ireland in 2014.

On the legal front, we can expect a long process. It will be a field day for lawyers and lovers intricate disputes.  It will particularly be interesting to study the arguments of each side. There will a new doctrine on multinationals, on national taxes, on investment advantages and benefits. It will be fascinating, if one is patient enough to follow the matter.

However, the best solution would be an arbitration. That´s what we have to recommend. There is a case, no doubt, but there is also an excellent opportunity to be realistic and even-handed.

Brazilian politics

Dilma Rousseff´s impeachment might be seen from different partisan perspectives. Fine. But my point is a different one. It´s about constitutional processes. And her trial by the Senate followed the procedures established in the Brazilian Constitution. The debate was not always serene and had a number of much undignified moments. Yet, in the end, it was democracy in action through institutional mechanisms.

On a different point, let me refer that some of the Senators and other top political actors might not be an example of probity. There is plenty of corruption within the party machineries. That should be the next political challenge for the people of Brazil. If that is tackled with steadiness the poor citizens, that have been the main support of Dilma and her movement, might become more inclined to accept the impeachment decision of today. It is therefore time to speak about launching a laundry political process.  

TTIP premature death announcement

Sigmar Gabriel is the number two person in the German government. But he is not a member of Chancellor Merkel´s party. He is the leader of the Social Democrats and his party is in a grand coalition with Merkel´s own grouping. As we come closer to the next round of general elections in 2017, the Social Democrats seem to be now more concerned about pleasing the voters than on a serious approach to public affairs. Their eyes are popularity.

That might be the reason why Gabriel yesterday declared the TTIP – the transatlantic trade agreement between the EU and the US – as dead in the water. And in his words the fault should be laid on the American side. Their demands could not be accepted by the health-and-environment conscious Europeans, he implied.

Gabriel knows that the trade agreement with the US, which has been under negotiation for about four years, is not popular among many in Europe. And he was trying to play to their feelings. The wrong approach, I add. As a leader, he should be at the forefront of those explaining on is at stake and how important it is to be patient but firm and get it done.

Today his government and Brussels came out to say that the news of such a death are exaggerated. The negotiations go on and many chapters have already been agreed upon, notwithstanding Gabriel´s words to the contrary.

TTIP should be completed as soon as possible. It is in our own interest to have a closer commercial relation with the US. And it gives us also some additional strength in our economic discussions with the Russians and others.

Actually, as about 90% of the articles are ready for mutual endorsement, it would be possible to sign up for those and let time and further discussions take care of the remainder points. That has been my position. We do not need to have everything ready. We approve what is ready, as stage one, and move on to stage two, to complete the negotiations on what is still pending. It is a pragmatic way of proceeding. And it sends some strategic messages around us.

The danger of paralysis

Paralysis is the key hazard the EU faces as we start the political rentrée. The leaders must respond to this threat by showing a renewed commitment to the common European ambition. They should stop putting all the blame on the EU institutions. And they should explain to their respective citizens that the EU matters and should be strengthened.

Angela Merkel is somehow doing it on her own initiative. But she cannot be alone in such an endeavour. 

Africa meets Japan

Just to note that today the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told African leaders that his country will commit $30 billion over the next three years in public and private support for infrastructure development, including power generation, education and healthcare expansion in the continent. The Japan-Africa Summit took place in Nairobi. More than 30 heads of state and government from across Africa attended the meeting.

There are a number of reasons for the Japanese renewed interest in Africa, well beyond the nice and diplomatic words that were said at the Summit.

In addition, the current African Union Chairman Idriss Deby, who is the President of Chad, urged Japan to contribute to the recent established African Fund Against Terrorism. This fund was set up by the Kigali AU Summit last month. It shows that security is a major priority concern for the African leaders. 

What is behind the burkini

In past couple of days I wrote a number of lines about the burkini hullabaloo in France. They were addressed to the Portuguese readers as the controversy has gone beyond the French borders and attracted very serious attention in several European countries. It´s a good summer story at a time of the year most newspapers are looking for light pieces to entertain the vacationers.

But this is no light subject. The burkini hides a number of political issues. It is not just a matter of freedom. It is the tip of a political iceberg.

One should note that even now that France´s Conseil d´Etat – the Supreme Court for these matters – has decided that the ban on wearing a burkini is illegal, the vast majority of the French people are for its prohibition. This reveals a new state of mind in the country. Public opinion has been deeply traumatised by the acts of terror that occurred during the last two years. They want to feel safe and at home in their own country. And they see the beach swimwear as an expression of radical Islam. Moreover, they see it as a banner that says no to the French way of life. It´s an expression of a culture that is foreign to many mainstream people. And that is less and less tolerated.

  

All this calls for a moment of introspection about the future. But it has to be carried out with greater serenity than what we have seen so far.

Cooperating with Central Asia

As I prepare my forthcoming trip to Central Asia, I realise the region is facing a complex set of challenges that remain largely ignored in the European circles of power. We still look at the region as an extension of the Russian sphere of influence. And we keep away. We are convinced there is very little chance of a triangular cooperation that would bring together the five countries of the region – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – plus the EU and Russia.

That might be the case for now. But it is the only path towards addressing the issues and preventing them from getting worse. This includes issues related to the expansion of faith-based extremism.

Cooperation in the region is also critical for the future of Afghanistan. This country is deeply linked to Central Asia and the strengthening of its economic and security ties with the region would bring additional opportunities for stability and growth in that part of the world.

Thank you, Brazil!

In the end, Brazil should be commended. The support provided to the Olympic Games has been quite valuable. The country might be facing a lot of political and economic problems but still it was able to deliver the environment the Games needed. It is fair to recognise it. 

On the US elections

When someone like Donald Trump is competing for the top spot, politics end up by focusing on temperament and the candidate´s suitability for the job. The debate is no longer about ideas and programmes. That´s what we are currently seeing. And that´s where the focus of Hillary Clinton´s campaign should be. But she should keep away from being directly involved in those attacks. People around her can do that business. She should continue to speak about the way she sees her presidency, her policies and priorities. As she does it, she should emphasise that on the other side of the spectrum there is only vacuity and incongruence. And keep repeating it as the aides keep underlining the opponent´s erratic personality.

On the burkini

Supporting the ban of the “burkini” in some French beaches sends a very strong political message, right from the top, as the Prime Minister himself has come out in favour of the prohibition: the French Muslims are expected to do much more in terms of integration in the host culture. There is the sentiment, in many quarters of the population, that the immigrants are not willing to accept the French way of life and more, that they are now engaged in a campaign to change the national culture and the behavioural norms.

This is also a very complex message. Behind it, I see a growing exasperation towards the Muslim population. Such trend can lead to serious conflicts. France seems to be in a path leading towards confrontation and greater social instability. If that comes to happen then we can say that the terrorists have managed to achieve two major goals: social destabilisation and diversion of public attention to matters that should not occupy the centre of the political attention. 

Humanitarian note

I would not feel good if I did not mention that today is the World Humanitarian Day.

It´s a little window of opportunity to remind ourselves that millions of human beings are currently in desperate need of a bit of assistance. For them, it´s a matter of survival. It is not about poverty and lack of development, it is about dire political and security circumstances that are putting their lives at great risk. They are the best testimony to a world that combines extreme violence in their lands with profound indifference in ours.

The day also gives us a tiny space to remember the enormous sacrifices and tremendous services that thousands of humanitarian field workers provide on a daily basis. Many perform in extreme stressful environments and face multiple security threats. They are part of a multitude of unsung heroes. We are not told about their little personal victories.

But I should also say something more political. Just in passing, as the day is about humanitarian dimensions, not about power struggles and games of influence. On the international political arena, the humanitarian work does not get the same type of attention than the matters of war and peace or the issues of global economics do get. The humanitarian field is seen as a secondary domain, an outer circle of status, not as prestigious as the others. That´s the reality I have seen so many times. And that´s a matter that needs to be reflected upon.

End of break

Time to resume the daily routines, after a period of rest in Southern Spain. And the first thing I notice is that the key people in the European institutions are still too much focused on security issues. It´s not a good idea. The security mechanisms are in place and they can do the job at hand. The politicians do not need to meddle too much with the security domain. They just need to provide the necessary legal and financial support. And then concentrate their minds on the economic and social challenges that are at the centre of the citizen´s preoccupations as well as on the relations between Europe and some key outside nations. That should be the agenda for the rentrée.

Our own calamitous leader

In the EU, all the governing leaders with the exception of one would be horrified if the US gets Catastrophic Donald to the presidency. They see him as a major international risk, an unpredictable and unprepared leader at a time the world needs common sense and proven experience in international affairs.

The only one that states clearly he would prefer Catastrophic Donald to win is the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Órban. Naturally, because Mr Órban himself is an aspiring dictator and a deeply rooted xenophobic. He thinks he could get an ally in Washington. Also, he does not want to be the only grotesque leader in charge of a Western country.

But I hope he will continue alone in his retrograde corner of European politics. Political quarantine is the best way to deal with this type of fellows.

No need to go overboard

Serenity is the best answer to all complex challenges. It´s essential to keep that in mind as we face a number of terrorist attacks. They want to destabilize us. We respond with steadiness. And with the appropriate means. No need for dramatic speeches of the kind we watched yesterday in Paris. A few firm words are enough. 

The political leaders and the police work

The fight against terrorism is above all the work of the specialised police services. They should be able to carry out their duties with a great degree of independence. This basically means that the political leaders should not get involved in the technical tasks of the police. They must be advised to do so, to keep a healthy distance from the police and not to fall in the temptation of becoming super police chiefs. That´s not their role.

The politicians should deal with the public dimensions issues and above all, they ought to bring the security feelings back. That´s about promoting a climate of serenity and fighting the propagation of alarmist views. It´s about explaining the security strategies that are being put in place.

Furthermore, their relationship with the police should be about creating the critical conditions for the services to be able to perform in a coordinated and efficient manner.

But police decisions have to remain the prerogative of the police forces. If the politicians try to meddle in such interference will cause confusion in the ranks of the police bosses and will compromise the professional approaches that the challenge of fighting terrorism requires. 

Terrorism: the narrative matters

Tomorrow I should spend some time on the relationship between terrorism and media. Basically, the question is about the way our European media is reporting about the terrorist incidents that have recently caused serious despair in our societies. More specifically, the concern is about the media as amplifiers of the terror atmosphere the criminals want to create among us. How is our serious media telling the stories? The narratives, including the exaggerations, have a major impact on people. And terrorism is about impacting and destabilising as many as possible. We should not be naïve and allow ourselves to serve their objectives.

Furthermore, a crisis psychosis is the ideal ground for the growth of all kinds of opportunistic politicians. They know how to take advantage of our fears. Are we unwillingly helping them?

These are some of the questions on the table. 

Brief note on the EU Global Strategy

In the future, the EU development cooperation policy cannot just be focused on governance, security and human rights. These three domains are certainly crucial. We need to see improvements in all of them. But we cannot ignore the food security challenges, the health needs, education, gender equality, energy and some critical infrastructure. They still required massive foreign aid. They are also essential to lift people out of poverty, including the future mothers of tomorrow. And to make sure people feel encouraged to remain in their native lands. A comprehensive view of development cannot just be reduced to one size fits all.